Management Story: Blind People Don'T Believe It.

Management story:

A blind man fell from a bridge through a wooden bridge on a dry stream. He grabbed the bridge by both hands.

He gripped the railing with fear and trembling. He estimated that he would fall into the abyss after loosening his hands.

The passerby told him, "don't be afraid. Just give up, and the next is flat ground."

The blind do not believe, hold on to the railing and shout loudly.

For a long time, my hands were tired and I lost my strength. Once I let go, I fell on the dry ground under the bridge.

So he laughed himself and said, "Hey, I knew that the bridge was dry on the ground. Why should I let myself suffer such a long time?"

Wisdom review

This is another black swan phenomenon. We call it the grey swan, the black swan is facing the unpredictable future. The grey swan is facing the "estimated future". This estimation is often troubled by the daily work of the enterprise managers.

You reckon that opportunities will come and estimate the opportunity of the crisis, which is expected to have a good profit, but in the end, all your estimates and facts have not happened.

A blind person is a bit of an exaggeration, but in business management, he often meets the same situation and is afraid to "look down". It is better to believe that this is a dangerous thing than to believe that it is dangerous. The so-called worry ritual must make the problem more complicated and make the problem more difficult.

In the process of enterprise strategy, we will take corresponding measures to predict the future. Some prediction will distort the current behavior. Enterprises will spend a lot of manpower and material resources on possible factors.

It is better to think more complex than to think too easily. This kind of thinking is actually the opposite of being lightly taken. Chinese people have a saying that ships come to the bridge naturally. This is actually the Chinese way of thinking. From another angle, it is "Ah Q". But in the management of enterprises, if there is no such Q spirit, doing things may get twice the result with half the effort. Of course, there is such a Q spirit, and the probability of success may also be greatly reduced.

Therefore, the grey Swan phenomenon is so much information nowadays, so many management theories and models. Enterprises will focus on the present future prediction and become the core problem to be solved in the process of enterprise development.

McKinsey's concept of "light business" for Guangming lotion is also an angle to solve the grey Swan phenomenon.