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The Hearing Will Be Held As Scheduled, How Will Anti-Dumping Affect Geometry?

2010/11/15 16:27:00 84

Since last week,

caprolactam

The market ended last week's small drop, with the stock market in early Zhou rose, the trading atmosphere has improved.

The hearing of the anti dumping investigation will be held in Beijing on schedule. Whether the anti-dumping can be established is still unknown. It is reported that the preliminary results will be announced in the middle of the day. According to Chuang Chuang, most of the participants believe that the anti-dumping can be successfully introduced. So what is the effect of its establishment or not on the market?

First of all, we briefly analyze the possibility of establishing the anti-dumping of caprolactam.

As we all know, caprolactam production capacity in China is seriously insufficient, and about 6 of the consumption depends on imports. Caprolactam originating in the United States and the European Union is currently used in high-speed spinning and slicing. However, the existing technology and production capacity of our country still can not meet the demand of high-end high speed spinning. Therefore, after anti-dumping, the cost of raw materials for high-speed spinning in China has increased.

However, some participants said that the establishment of anti-dumping is not only related to the product area, but also involves.

Sino US relations

On the political issue, under the pressure of RMB appreciation in the United States, or impose anti-dumping duties on it.

At present, the majority of participants believe that the possibility of anti-dumping is much larger. How much will the market be affected after the establishment of the anti-dumping? Since the end of 4, the anti-dumping investigation has already promoted the market, and it has already been digested for half a year. However, once the initial ruling is established, the market will still go up more or less. However, the caprolactam is still seriously divorced from the cost side, and how much more will the price increase if the price approaches the historical highs?

Participant

It is believed that this round of rise will reach 2800 US dollars / ton. At this point, we still need to observe the receptivity of downstream. If we fail to pass the cost effectively, the sell-off will appear or the market will face the pressure of callback.

If anti-dumping is not established, the market will lose the guidance of news. Although the downstream production and sales are still good and the demand side is still supported, but if the recovery of foreign factories starts and the profit of some profit margins is closed, the market supply will increase, and the market will inevitably be downwards.

Today's anti-dumping hearings will be over. News is coming out or waiting for next week. During this period, the buyers will still be reluctant to sell, while buyers' enquiries will increase. The focus of negotiations is expected to increase slightly. However, without clear information, the margin is still limited.