PTA Will Hit The High Point Again.

Entering the December, the domestic commodity market panic gradually subsided, the market once again gained momentum to stop and rebound. By the middle of the month, Zhengzhou PTA5 month price once again hit 10000 yuan pass.

Although it can not be seen whether the breakthrough can be achieved effectively, however, through the analysis of the current two cities, I believe that

First, the macro level.

At the end of last year, the Fed decided to maintain interest rates unchanged, and will continue to implement plans to buy US $600 billion in treasury bonds before the second quarter of 2011.

Linked to the current high unemployment rate in the United States, the possibility of implementing a larger stimulus plan still exists.

The flow of liquidity in the United States will be pported to every country in the form of US dollar global settlement currency, especially in emerging markets.

So we can see that the US dollar index has failed to maintain its results after breaking through the 80 mark and will even explore the bottom again in the future.

The same is true in the domestic market.

Data show that loans nationwide totaled 474300 billion yuan in November, once again hit a new high, reflecting a surplus of liquidity.

Of course, the pressure of policy should not be ignored.

Once the overall price level is rising again, it will undoubtedly increase the pressure of regulation.

On the eve of the announcement of CPI data in early December, the central bank again raised the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, resulting in the unprecedented increase in the deposit reserve ratio for the 3 time in a month.

The pressure of future policy is still the sharpest sword hanging above the market.

From a macro perspective, the current market can be briefly summarized as

Two. Spot market

The strength of upstream crude oil has fundamentally boosted the popularity of domestic chemicals futures market.

From the level of US crude oil inventory, seasonal factors have led to a continuous decline in stocks and two other factors have accelerated the process.

First, OPEC keeps its daily output unchanged.

With the recent increase in consumption in the world's major demand countries, this undoubtedly helped fuel oil prices.

Two is the recent Nordic and central North China, including most parts of China generally ushered in cooling weather, the temperature is close to or below the normal level, the demand for heating oil and fuel in winter is likely to increase, which deserves further attention.

In the long run, with the continuous improvement of US economic data, world crude oil demand is likely to continue to rise. If the main oil producing countries still maintain their output, oil prices will probably be realized ahead of time, such as Goldman Sachs and other authoritative institutions, and see a high price of $100 / barrel.

From the report of CFTC's light crude oil futures market held by the NYMEX, the fund's net mostly shows a trend of continued growth.

This will play a strong supporting role in oil prices.

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The strong crude oil will be gradually pmitted to naphtha and xylene, and the PX price will remain at a high level of 1300 - 1400 US dollars / ton, bringing strong cost support to PTA spot.

As of December 15th, the price of imported PX was 1387 yuan / ton. According to this price, the production cost of PTA will be as high as 8500. Considering the normal profit level, the spot quotation will get strong support from 9300 to 9500 yuan / ton line.

The strong performance of crude oil blocked the drop of PTA.

Downstream is also more optimistic.

The latest data show that in November

Judging from the seasonal rule of PTA price operation, since the middle of 2004, the cross year quotes tend to rise above. Although the policy pressure is a major factor, on the one hand, the supply and demand pattern is difficult to fundamentally reverse. On the other hand, industrial products are not the key point in regulating the price policy. Therefore, the cross year market for PTA is still worth looking forward to.

Three. Futures market

After the adjustment in November, the amount of funds in the PTA futures market has been greatly reduced. In the course of this rally, though there is a certain backflow of funds, it is not obvious, which is perhaps the focus of our concern.

If future PTA positions can not continue to rise significantly, it may fundamentally inhibit the increase of PTA.

On the one hand, at the end of the year, the capital chain of enterprises is being tested. On the other hand, this year's market makes all sectors of the industrial chain profitable, while the lower interest rates and the high credit scale make the financial pressure at the end of this year lower than in previous years.

Holding positions is the most direct indicator of the capital side.

In terms of technology, the Zhengzhou PTA index is now approaching the important psychological price of 10000 yuan integer pass.

If the percentage is converted, this price will also rebound at the same time. The short-term pressure is expected to be more obvious.

If the breakthrough is made, the upward space will be further opened, and there may even be a possible impact on the former height. Investors can pay close attention to it.