The Global Economic Uncertainty Has Been Affected By Japan'S Devastating Earthquake.

Asia Pacific -

Growth variables

At present, the disaster caused by the great earthquake in Japan is still changing. Nuclear leakage has become an uncertain factor for the future development. Therefore, it is difficult to accurately assess the impact of the disaster on the Asia Pacific economy.

But it is certain that when Asian countries are fighting against high oil prices and high inflation rates, the Japanese earthquake will add a series of new uncertainties to the region's economic prospects at least in the short term.

Some economists have warned that Asia's growth rate this year is likely to be revised downward.

Most economists believe that the earthquake that Japan will encounter will have a certain impact on the economy and industry in Asia.

For example, Japan is an important source of income for Thailand's tourism industry.

It is estimated that Thailand receives more than 1 million Japanese tourists every year.

Affected by disasters, the number of Japanese tourists is bound to decline this year.

For countries like Philippines, Japan is the main source of foreign labor remittance income, and more than 200 thousand of Philippines nationals work in Japan.

At present, a large number of Filipinos are returning home, and this income is estimated to decrease this year.

Because Japan is an important trading partner of many Asian countries and regions, the volume of trade between Japan and other Asian countries may drop sharply in the short term.

According to the analysis of Thailand's Bangkok post, Thailand's exports to Japan will decline.

Experts at the Thailand economic and business forecasting center of the University of Commerce in Thailand predicted that the disaster will reduce the amount of sunrise by about 7.2% in 15.

At present, some commercial banks in Thailand are ready to help affected exporters by adjusting loan repayment terms.

Japan is the third largest importer of textiles and aquatic products in Vietnam.

The Vietnam Fisheries Association and the textile association believe that the catastrophic earthquake disaster will reduce the purchasing power of Japan and further affect the sales of Vietnam's aquatic products and textiles in the Japanese market.

Indonesian pport operators said that because of the damage caused by the Japanese earthquake, many import and export products may not be pported in time, which will affect the economic exchanges between the two sides.

India media said on the 15 day that some India enterprises will face delays in importing equipment from Japan, while some joint ventures between India and Japan will also have some shortage of supply.

Japan is also the largest source of foreign direct investment in some parts of Asia.

These countries are generally concerned that Japan will shrink foreign investment after the disaster.

India analysts say Japan has invested more than $22 billion in direct investment in India in the past 10 years.

Once Japan's financial institutions are faced with a huge increase in domestic market demand, it is not possible to exclude Japan from withdrawing some of its funds from the India market.

Indonesia is also concerned that Japan's investment in Indonesia, especially some infrastructure projects, may be postponed.

However, some experts in Asia also believe that Japan's post disaster reconstruction and increased demand for capital and energy and building materials will bring new opportunities to some Asian economies.

Thailand's national newspaper reported that reconstruction after Japan's earthquake will provide opportunities for investors and enterprises in Thailand.

Japan's trade promotion agency will hold a "Japanese investment forum" in Thailand next week.

The agency believes that Japan has always been an attractive target for Thailand investors.

The Thailand Investment Promotion Council also expressed its willingness to strengthen cooperation with Japan to jointly support enterprises in the areas of electronic components, machinery and equipment in tsunami hit areas.

Europe and America --

The stock market plummeted.

In March 15th, the US stock market fell sharply at the beginning, and the Dow index and the standard & Poor's 500 index fell 2.1% and 2.3% respectively.

The 30 stocks that made up the Dow fell all the way, especially the general electric appliance. The company participated in the construction of the six nuclear reactors of the Japanese nuclear power plant damaged by the earthquake.

The volatility of the stock market shows that investor panic is on the rise.

Affected by the Japanese situation, New York Mercantile Exchange's crude oil futures price dropped 3.6% to 97.55 dollars per barrel in April, and gold prices also fell sharply.

But the US public opinion does not seem to worry about the impact of the disaster on the supply chain of the world's major industries.

The first reason is that the India Ocean tsunami in 2004 and hurricane Katrina in 2005 also caused a temporary interruption of the industrial chain, but it soon resumed.

Two, Japan's major manufacturing industries have mostly shifted their production overseas. Honda motor has said its car production in North America will not be greatly affected.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg believe that US manufacturing output will continue to grow, leading the US economic recovery.

As investors worried about the impact of Japan's earthquake and tsunami on economic growth and demand, European stock market fell 3 month closing low in March 14th, which was panic selling in Tokyo stock market. On the 15 day, the European stock market also fell sharply in early trading, or 1.2% to 2.6%.

Finance, oil, mining and stocks generally fell.

According to UPI, some countries announced the re evaluation of the nuclear power development plan after Japan's earthquake and tsunami caused an accident at the nuclear power plant. The two major nuclear power companies in Germany have suffered varying degrees of losses in Asian and European stock markets.

In addition, European luxury goods manufacturers have a large customer base in Japan, and some luxury goods prices in Britain and France continue to fall.

It is also reported that some European multinationals such as BMW Motor Co., Germany have begun to evacuate their employees from Japan.

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Outlook -

Limited long-term impact

As the third largest economy in the world, Japan's disaster will inevitably increase the uncertainty of world economic recovery.

Nicholas Stegeny, an expert at the center for strategic and international studies in Washington, said that when the global economic recovery was threatened by the turmoil in the Middle East and the debt crisis in the euro area, the Japanese earthquake undoubtedly posed a new risk to the world economy.

At present, the Japanese disaster has affected the price of bulk commodities in the international market.

Economists also believe that, in the short term, Japan's economy will soon rebound in the coming months, as Japan's economy is in a halt, and it will be worse for the sluggish Japanese economy, but in the next few months, Japan's economy will soon rebound as Japan quickly rebuilds its disaster.

Although the Japanese government's debt burden is two times that of its GDP, the Japanese government still has the ability to borrow huge amounts of money needed to rebuild.

In the medium to long term, the massive expenditure of post disaster reconstruction projects will ultimately contribute to the recovery of the Japanese economy, which in turn may lead to a surge in demand for commodities.

Indonesian media reported that there have been indications in energy that Indonesia's earthquake will increase exports of crude oil and natural gas to Japan.

Moodie analysts Thomas Bain 14, said: "the Japanese economy is able to withstand the earthquake.

Generally speaking, larger and richer economies can cope with local natural disasters. "

He believes that Japan is an economy with a gross domestic product of US $6 trillion, and domestic deposits are quite abundant. Foreign assets are equivalent to 59% of GDP in 2009.

All these will help the Japanese economy get back to the right track as soon as possible.