July 20, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20275 yuan / ton; 229 level 19412 yuan / ton; 328 level 18490 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17581 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 9730 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 15050 yuan / ton; C32S price 25380 yuan / ton.

2. domestic spot: the leaders of the China Cotton Storage and storage company, held in Shandong at the 2012 cotton reserve business conference, once again made clear the new policy of cotton open storage and storage in the new year to boost market confidence.

3. imported cotton: in July 19th, the price of China's main cotton imports rose generally, of which India cotton rose 1 cents, and West African cotton and American cotton rose 1.5-2.5 cents.

It is understood that at present, the textile factories without quotas continue to import Pakistan yarns and India yarns, and the pick-up price of 20 branches and 32 pure cotton yarns of India is about 22000 yuan / ton and 27600 yuan / ton, respectively, which are lower than the yarn cost of the real estate cotton produced by the textile mill, which indirectly leads to the indigestion of the outer cotton in the tax protection area, although the price of the outer cotton is slightly improved, but the market's future trend is not optimistic.

4. Cotton Growth: since June, the main cotton producing areas in the country are basically normal. Cotton growth has little impact on pests and diseases, and the picking period is expected to be in normal range.

In 2012, the average cotton yield per unit area in China was estimated to be 95.5 kg / mu, 0.6% higher than the previous year, and the total output of 6 million 857 thousand tons, a decrease of 9.1%.

5.ICE cotton: in July 19th, because of the strong grain prices and the slow arrival of the India monsoon rain, which led to a decline in cotton production, ICE futures continued to rise, and the contract returned to 73 cents in December.

Summary:

The two major factors that affect domestic cotton prices are demand and policy. There is no substantial change in demand.

The recent market rumors on reserve control policies are relatively large. On the 18 day, the leaders of the China Cotton Storage and storage company held a meeting on the reserve cotton business meeting in Shandong in 2012 to further clarify the new cotton policy of open storage and storage in the new year, so as to boost market confidence.

Yesterday, Zheng cotton opened up high, but the technology is still on the rise. But recently, Zheng cotton has been under pressure near 19700. Short term investors should pay attention to it.

[MEIKO futures] cotton market fundamentals weak, inside and outside a narrow range of shocks

Overnight, in July 19th, ICE prices continued to rise as a result of strong grain prices and the slow arrival of India's monsoon rains. The futures of ICE continued to return to the 73 cent region in December. However, after the rise, cotton prices sped up.

Compared with the grain market, ICE cotton is difficult to attract investors' attention, and the paction remains low, so it is difficult for the market to change the oscillation pattern.

In July 19, 2012, the US Department of Agriculture published the report on American cotton export on 9-12 July 2012.

In the week of 2011/12, the net volume of US cotton exports was 9 thousand and 400 tons.

The net contract volume of US cotton exports was 7 thousand and 700 tons in 2012/13.

In the week, the export volume of us upland cotton was 47 thousand and 600 tons, up 5% from the previous week, 10% higher than that of the previous four weeks.

In the international market, in July 19th, the price of China's main cotton imports rose generally, of which India cotton rose 1 cents, and West African cotton and American cotton rose 1.5-2.5 cents.

It is understood that at present, the textile factories without quotas continue to import Pakistan yarns and India yarns, and the pick-up price of 20 branches and 32 pure cotton yarns of India is about 22000 yuan / ton and 27600 yuan / ton, respectively, which are lower than the yarn cost of the real estate cotton produced by the textile mill, which indirectly leads to the indigestion of the outer cotton in the tax protection area, although the price of the outer cotton is slightly improved, but the market's future trend is not optimistic.

Domestic market, 19 days, domestic

Spot prices continued to rise slightly, domestic cotton and textile supply and marketing continued to ease the situation has not changed, market confidence is seriously inadequate, cotton prices are weak, with policy swing, and considering the current economic situation is grim, cotton prices will rebound in the next few months, but the amplitude will not be similar to previous years.

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Spot quotation. In July 19th, the price of C/A cotton in the US was 88.85 (cents / pound), and the general trade port delivery price was 15189 yuan / ton (calculated according to the sliding tax). The Australian cotton quotation was 93.10, the general trade port delivery price was 15745 yuan / ton, the Uzbekistan cotton quotation was 92.05, the general trade port delivery price was 15606 yuan / ton, the India cotton quotation was 85.10, the general trade port delivery price was 14720 yuan / ton.

The national cotton price A index was 19415 yuan / ton, up 3 yuan; the B index was 18494 yuan, up 4 yuan.

Market analysis, the parties concerned said there was no plan to throw or reserve import quotas to ease market pressure, and the Central Reserve said that the next year would not limit the purchase and storage.

The good news of double market offers a boost to cotton market, but consumption is still the key factor restricting the height of cotton price, so the height will be limited.

The US cotton continued to oscillate sideways, and zhengmian 1301 fluctuated in the 19000-19600 interval.

Operation, the 19000-19600 interval concussion, temporarily short trading.

[Huaan futures] good fortune gradually Zheng cotton multi single continue to hold

Key points:

1, the Fed's "brown leather book" said that the US economy has been growing at a slow to moderate pace, which is more pessimistic than the previous report's "moderate growth". It has been watching the Fed's actions in the late stage. This news is short term pressure on commodities, but the possibility of QE3 will also increase.

2, the Central Cotton store yesterday at the working conference said that the new year's cotton market will be opened up and stored, and the domestic cotton market will gradually improve in the late stage, which will bring certain support to Zheng cotton's main contract.

3, the interests of domestic cotton growers and the interests of cotton spinning enterprises are hard to take into account at present. The huge price difference between domestic and foreign cotton will continue, causing the port to be full of cotton.

External trend: New York July 19th, cotton futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rose about 1% on Thursday, driven by a surge in the grain market. Investors turned their attention to the weather to India. Brokers fear that the weak monsoon may affect the output of India's large cotton producing country.

As of July 18th, the national rainfall in India was 22% lower than the average, and the drought in India increased.

Brokers say that despite the fact that irrigation in cotton growing areas is good, the market is concerned that output may decline.

The December cotton contract CTZ2 gained 0.97 cents, 72.63 cents a pound, and a 73.21 cent high.

Early comments: overnight cotton cotton main contract rose nearly 1%, on the one hand, the grain rose to boost, on the other hand, the market began to worry that drought in cotton producing countries in India might affect production. ICE cotton is still in a slow upward trend. In the domestic market, the cotton market in the new year has been opened up and stored, which has been confirmed by the relevant persons in the central cotton storage market, and the spot market has stabilized. The downward movement energy of zhengmian is limited. The 20400 of the purchase price will be a strong support and guidance for cotton prices. It is expected that the 1301 contract of the zhengmian main force will continue to move closer to 20400 in a narrow fluctuation and slowly raise the heavy heart.

On the operation, Zheng Mian 1301, many single continue to hold cautiously.

Up to 19300, the first target level is 19600.