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Developed Emerging Stock Based Differentiation, Uncertainty And Risk

2013/10/7 23:47:00 13

developed emerging stock base differentiation 
 EPFR pointed out that in the third quarter of this year, the monthly and daily net capital inflows of the European equity base all hit the highest value since the agency monitored the data. The good performance of the Japanese stock market in the quarter is even expected to help to refresh the highest annual "gold absorption" record in 2005. The US stock market is also more optimistic, although the average weekly intake has declined slightly compared with the previous quarter. However, in contrast to the strong performance of the stock market in the developed economies, the global emerging market stock market has for the first time witnessed a continuous two quarter net outflow of funds since the second half of 2011. 
 specific sub item data show that the global emerging a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > market < /a > stock base has a net outflow capital of US $12 billion 100 million in the three quarter, of which four of the classified indicators only have a small net inflow of 1 billion 400 million US dollars in diversified emerging market stocks. Asia (except Japan) shares have a large net outflow of 9 billion 200 million US dollars, and Latin American stock base net outflows 2 billion 800 million US dollars. In important economies, the Brazil stock base, which is suffering from high inflation, slowing economic growth and devaluation of the local currency, has a net outflow of US $1 billion 400 million, which has resulted in capital outflow for third consecutive quarters. The net outflow of shares in Mexico has reached 100 million US dollars, and the net stock outflow of $700 million in Russia's stock base, and the net outflow of $300 million in Turkey, and the net outflow of 350 million US dollars in India. 
In the same period, the United States and Japan share the net absorption of gold 33 billion 400 million and 6 billion 300 million US dollars respectively, while the stock market of the developed Western European stock market substantially absorbed 22 billion 600 million US dollars, which is still in the absence of the 2 billion 500 million dollar outflow of the German stock base in the important economies, and the stock market in other developed markets of the world is attracting a net gold of 26 billion 400 million US dollars in P. The good performance of the above classification stocks makes the stock market of developed markets come up with a net inflow of up to US $85 billion 700 million. 
 uncertainty risk intensification 
 the industry believes that the risk of uncertainty in the last quarter of the emerging economies "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/ "financial > /a" will be aggravated by the multiple internal and external factors. 
 except for stock funds, EPFR's three quarter statistics also show that the net redemption amount of global bond funds and emerging market debt bases all set the highest value since the agency began monitoring this data. The US debt base has set a record high of second, and more funds have gone from the US money market fund to the Japanese money market fund, and the European monetary market fund has expanded the trend of net outflow of funds for six consecutive quarters. 
 EPFR also pointed out in the report that in the third quarter that has just ended, there are many internal and external uncertainties in emerging markets, and this uncertainty in the near future is likely to intensify. Investors now believe that the decision of the Federal Reserve will be more and more deliberate and will gradually withdraw from quantitative easing under the premise of considering the market's bearing capacity. Moreover, the deadlock of debt ceiling and government closes will eventually be resolved with the compromise between political parties. These fluctuations may slow down the current economic recovery in the US, but will never stop. However, this is likely to put more pressure on emerging economies, especially those with higher inflation and current account deficits. The current situation may also increase the attractiveness of financial markets in Europe and Japan, and encourage the "turn" of emerging economies' capital, because the former is in a relatively stable period, and the economy has also seen significant growth. 
 but there is also a view that the emerging market economy is less than a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > stock < /a >, and the market valuation is relatively low, which is a good opportunity to enter the market. Mark Tinkei Tinker, a Axa asset management fund manager, points out that the stock market in emerging markets is at its lowest level since 2004, compared with the US stock market. Citigroup analysts pointed out that the economic situation of many developing countries is still fragile, but investors are advised to adopt a reverse placement mode for emerging market stocks, because the stock prices in emerging markets have fallen too fast.