Foreign Investment Banks: RMB'S Further Devaluation Is Limited.

< p > the floating rate of RMB to us dollar trading in China's interbank spot foreign exchange market expanded from 1% to 2% yesterday. For this reason, foreign investment banks said that the easing of volatility would increase RMB volatility and depreciate the RMB exchange rate or short-term value, but the trend of long-term appreciation would not be reduced.

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< p > Barclay said that China's recent macro economy is weaker than expected, and the market is also worried about credit risk. It is expected that the RMB will depreciate against the US dollar in the coming month and reduce the estimated value of RMB exchange rate in the coming year.

However, Barclays also said that the yuan has accumulated a lot of depreciation this year. The central bank is expected to use the middle price to stabilize the exchange rate so as to avoid the expectation that it will eventually lead to capital outflow.

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< p > UBS Securities said that the RMB a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > /a > floating rate expanded, but it does not mean a significant depreciation. From the economic fundamentals, the RMB has not been underestimated.

UBS believes that the renminbi is unlikely to continue to appreciate this year, and it will not depreciate significantly.

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< p > UBS judged that in 2013 China's < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > current account /a > surplus accounted for 2.1% of GDP.

Considering the high savings rate in China, this indicates that the RMB exchange rate has basically been at a fair level.

Even if foreign exchange flows out at a certain time in the future, China's foreign exchange reserves will also limit the devaluation pressure faced by the RMB.

In addition, in view of the relatively weak export performance in the near future, the "hot money" inflow may be subsided, and enterprises and banks will also manage the exchange rate risk in daily pactions more effectively and effectively, which will not directly affect the growth of trade and real economy.

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"P > HSBC pointed out that the central bank's easing of the volatility showed that policymakers were more satisfied with the expected decline of the" unilateral appreciation ", but did not exclude them from further reducing such expectations.

< a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > RMB > /a > the fluctuation range will be reduced to 2%, which will make RMB lose its low volatility characteristic as a carry interest currency. It is expected that the exchange rate will begin to depreciate, and RMB may sell in both spot and distant markets, but there will still be an opportunity to appreciate the 5.98 target at the end of the year.

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Paul Mackel, head of HSBC's strategic monetary strategy, said in a report that China's push for financial reform is expected to drive domestic interest rates to rise. In the long run, the RMB interest rate curve will tend to be steep.

The opening of capital account and the rise in interest rate parity will push up the distant curve, especially the long end.

As for the short end, Paul Mackel said that monetary easing may be a possible risk factor in the near future, and the devaluation of the renminbi is expected to reduce its impact.

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