Cotton Is Expected To Rise Over The Long Term.

According to the prediction of China Cotton Association, the total output of cotton in China in 2016 was about 4 million 607 thousand tons, down 4.4% compared with the same period last year.

Among them, the output of Xinjiang was about 3 million 608 thousand tons, an increase of 1% over the same period last year. The output of the the Yellow River basin and the Yangtze River Basin was about 463 thousand tons, representing a decrease of 16.8% and 24.8% respectively over the same period last year.

In 2016, cotton consumption in China was about 7 million 230 thousand tons, and the annual production demand gap was 2 million 620 thousand tons, excluding the import of 894 thousand tons. The remaining 1 million 730 thousand tons needed to be filled by cotton reserves.

In accordance with the past storage strategy, the reserve cotton market will be the first to be around March next year. In the current period to March next year, especially when the market has lost the season of new flower concentrated listing, the market gap effect will appear, and the cotton is expected to rise over the long term.

In October 25th, Zheng cotton 1701 contract added to the warehouse, opened at 14760 yuan / ton, closing 15085 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day settlement price rose 260 yuan / ton, turnover increased, position increased 17462 hand to 385804 hands.

Outward trend: the ICE slipped on Monday and fell for fifth consecutive days due to commercial hedging pressure.

The ICE cotton December contract hit a low of 68.53 cents per pound, the lowest since October 13th.

News: as of October 23rd, the United States

The harvest rate was 39%, compared with 30% in the previous week, 39% in the same period last year, and 37% in five years.

In the week, the excellent and good rate of cotton growth in the United States was 48%, a slight improvement from 47% in the previous week, but 47% in the same period last year.

In the week, the boll rate of cotton in the United States was 93%, 89% in the previous week, 95% in the same period last year, and 92% in the five year.

Spot side: cotton index 3128B price is 15366 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day rose 7 yuan / ton.

Import: according to the General Administration of Customs of China, in September 2016, China

Cotton 60 thousand and 600 tons, a decrease of 8 thousand and 600 tons, a decrease of 12.44%, an increase of 9 thousand and 700 tons, an increase of 19.03% over the same period; in 2016 1-9 months, China's total import of cotton 654 thousand and 900 tons, down 504 thousand and 500 tons, or 43.51%.

Market dynamics, according to feedback from some southern ginning mills, the current purchase price of seed cotton in the territory has declined by 0.4-0.5 yuan /kg, resulting in subtle changes in the mentality of buyers and sellers.

The cotton market has entered a stalemate, the purchase price of seed cotton has dropped, and the selling price of lint has dropped sharply.

From the previous 16200-16500 yuan / ton to 15800 yuan / ton or even below.

But the purchasing intention of textile enterprises is low, and turnover is scarce.

It is still a drag on the market.

It is reported that the initial sales price of the machine picked cotton is 14800 yuan / ton, and the market price is 14900-15000 yuan / ton at present. There is still pressure on the short term market.