Authoritative Release -- Analysis Of The Economic Operation Of The Filament Weaving Industry In The First Quarter Of 2018

"China's economy has achieved a good start this year."

The unanimous judgement of Reuters and Bloomberg reflects the voice of overseas media.

China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 6.8% in the first quarter of this year, a 1.4% increase over the first quarter of this year, citing the data released by China's National Bureau of statistics.

Britain's BBC has praised the growth rate of China's economy, calling it "better than expected", showing the resilience of the world's second largest economy.

China's first quarter economic data have made the anxious world secure by the "big stick" in the US's highly elevated trade war.

Foreign trade Qi Hu, trade war can not defeat China.

In the first quarter of 2018, the detailed analysis of China's filament weaving industry is as follows:

According to statistics from various clustered areas, 1-3 months in 2018, Shengze, Longhu, Siyang, Ping Wang and Keqiao five production of chemical fiber filament fabrics totaled 4 billion 799 million meters, an increase of 1.97% over the same period last year.

Over the same period last year, the output of the above five clusters of chemical filament fabrics was 4 billion 698 million meters, and the output in the first quarter of 2018 was 101 million meters higher than that of the same period last year.

At present, since the second half of 2017, there has been no impact on the overall scale of production since the reform of small and scattered enterprises and non-standard enterprises by various clusters.

As the whole industry is facing a large-scale industrial pfer, some new clusters are being built, and the whole industry output is expected to increase steadily throughout the year.

Two, export competition is still fierce.

Due to the global economic weakness, insufficient international market demand, further weakening of China's traditional competitive advantage and intensified trade frictions, the international trade situation is not good, but the textile market performs well.

In the 1-3 month, the volume of China's textile exports amounted to US $27 billion 206 million, an increase of 11.03% over the same period last year.

The total export volume of textile fabrics was US $8 billion 147 million, an increase of 7.18% over the same period last year. The actual export volume was 6 billion 587 million M, up 2.67% over the same period last year. The average export price was 1.24 US dollars / m, an increase of 5.08% over the same period last year, showing a state of increasing volume and price, and the industry economy showed great vitality.

According to China Customs statistics, in 2018 1-3, China's chemical fiber filament fabrics exported 3 billion 112 million meters, an increase of 7.82% over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 13.08 percentage points over the same period last year. However, influenced by the trade situation, the export volume in March was 596 million meters, which was significantly lower than that in February.

According to the classification of the export products of the filament weaving industry, in 2018 1-3, the nylon filament fabric increased 113 million meters, up 13.32% compared with the same period last year; the polyester filament fabric exported 2 billion 657 million meters, an increase of 8.38% over the same period last year.

(two) the export price of nylon fabrics has dropped.

According to customs statistics, in 2018 1-3 months, the average export price of China's chemical filament fabrics was 0.92 US dollars / m, up 2.22% over the same period last year, of which the export price of polyester filament fabrics was 0.92 US dollars / m, up 6.98% over the same period last year.

The export price of nylon filament fabrics decreased greatly, down 12.78% compared with the same period last year.

Figure 2 shows the export price trend of China's nylon and polyester filament fabrics from January 2016 to March 2018.

During the period, the export price of nylon filament fabrics fluctuated greatly and slowly showed a downward trend. In March 2018, the export unit price dropped particularly. The export price of polyester filament fabrics decreased slowly after a slight decline, and then returned to near the beginning of 2016, and the export unit price was higher than in early February 2018.

(three) import price increase

According to customs statistics, in 2018 1-3 months, China's textile fabrics totaled 696 million US dollars, an increase of 4.74% over the same period last year, of which the total imports of filament fabrics were 319 million US dollars, up 0.98% over the same period last year.

Nylon filament fabric imports totaled $102 million, an increase of 1.43% over the same period, and polyester filament fabric imports totaled $145 million, an increase of 0.75% over the same period last year.

It can be clearly seen from table 3 that in 2018 1-3, the total import volume of China's filament fabrics remained positive, and the number of imports increased from negative growth last year to negative growth, and the average import price increased from negative growth last year to positive growth.

China's existing conventional product capacity has met the domestic market demand, but a small number of high value-added products still need to rely on imports.

The average import price of filament fabrics was 1.77 US dollars / meter, up 12.03% over the same period last year, which is 0.19 US dollars higher than the average import price in March 2017.

In the 1-3 month of 2018, the main trade areas of China's chemical fiber filament fabrics were stable but actually surged.

In the 1-3 month of 2018, the number of silk fabrics exported to Burma increased by 69.3% over the same period last year, but the price dropped slightly.

In 2017, the total volume of China's exports of Nigeria's filament fabrics increased by 82.24% over the same period last year, but the performance in the first quarter of this year was not outstanding, and the total export volume increased by only 5.05% over the same period last year.

China's exports to Brazil, Indonesia, Bangladesh and the United Arab Emirates increased in volume and price, with the largest increase in exports to Brazil, and the total amount of export silk fabrics in Brazil amounted to US $108 million, an increase of 51.9% over the same period last year, and the total export volume was 143 million meters, up 28.77% over the same period last year.

According to the textile and clothing office data of the US Department of Commerce, the total amount of silk fabrics imported from the United States decreased by 0.67% in the 1-3 months of 2018, of which 9.89% of household apparel fabrics decreased by 9.89% compared with the same period last year, and the industrial fabrics increased by 2.16% over the same period last year.

From the US household clothing market, in the 1-3 months of 2018, the US imports from the world decreased by 17.83% over the same period last year.

Among them, the volume of imports from China decreased by 17.84% compared with the same period last year, and China occupied 61.95% of its market share, 0.66 percentage points lower than its market share in 2017.

In addition, the United States imported household clothing fabrics from South Korea down 17.53% over the same period last year. The decline was slower than in 2017, and the market share increased from 12.59% in 2017 to 12.81% in the first quarter of 2018.

In 1-3 months of 2018, the United States imported 11.77% years of household clothing from Canada, an increase of 11.77% from the negative growth in 2017, and a 51.24 percentage point increase. The market share also increased from 3.33% in 2017 to 4.74% in the first quarter of 2018.

Although China occupies the first place in the market share of household clothing fabrics in the United States, a small share of the market is being grabbed by countries such as Korea and Canada.

In 1-3 months of 2018, the number of imported fabrics in the United States decreased by 4.41% compared with the same period in the world. The volume of imports from India dropped by 2.29% over the same period last year. Although the negative growth trend of imports from India eased compared with that in 2017, the market share decreased from 39.47% in 2017 to 39.35% in the first quarter of 2018.

Imports of industrial fabrics from the United States increased by 11.06% over the same period last year, down 11.43 percentage points from the full year of 2017, and the market share also decreased from 18.24% in 2017 to 18.09% in the first quarter of 2018.

The US imports of industrial fabrics from Mexico increased by 50.67% over the same period last year, 15.84 percentage points higher than the full year growth in 2017, and its market share also increased from 2.68% in 2017 to 3.11%.

The above data show that China's product upgrading has been improved in the field of high value-added. According to the spring 2018 questionnaire survey of the filament weaving industry, 62.79% of the workers' wages increased by 10% compared with last year, labor costs increased, and the price of raw materials increased, and the environmental protection efforts intensified.

Judging from the performance of the Eastern Silk Market, March 2018 became an obvious turning point. After the downturn in March, the recovery of the April prosperity index indicated that the market sales rebounded sharply, and the market confidence reignited after the fluctuations.

In 2018 1-4, China's chemical fiber filament fabric price index showed a rising trend, and the market was warmer.

According to the 2018 spring questionnaire survey of the filament weaving industry, 83.33% and 94.29% of the enterprises respectively believed that the raw material price and printing and dyeing cost were higher than that of 2017 in 2018, and the production cost increased further, which led to 80% of the enterprises think that the product price would rise correspondingly.

This conclusion is consistent with the result shown in Fig. 3.

As can be seen from Figure 4, casual wear

The fabric prices of women's fabrics and down garments are stable throughout the year, and the performance of simulated silk fabrics and business wear fabrics has been poor for some time. The rest are at a relatively stable price level.

According to this year's data, last year's "environmental storm" brought space to the market, but also provided strong support for the market order. The market became more standardized and the competition became fairer.

In addition, Figure 4-1 shows the price trend of our down garment fabrics, business clothing fabrics and simulated silk fabrics in January 2017 -2018 April.

From this picture, we can see clearly that the prices of the above three fabrics have gone through more obvious fluctuations, and the price in April 2018 has basically reached the highest point in nearly 16 months.

The rising price of raw materials has driven the price of fabrics to rise synchronously. In addition, the inventory of enterprises in 2017 has basically been completely consumed, and in addition to the industry rectification in 2017, the small and scattered enterprises have been closed down. The new cluster areas have not yet been completely completed, and the supply has a short time.

Will continue to show rising trend.

Four, raw material prices rose steadily.

As can be seen from Figure 5, the price of Brent crude oil surged from a low price of 50.96 US dollars / barrel in June 2017 to 74.44 US dollars / barrel in April 2018.

The rising price of crude oil has provided strong support for the price of raw materials of chemical fiber filament in our country, and the price of nylon FDY has increased considerably.

In addition, the rise of weaving Market is also driving up the price of chemical filament yarn.

Five, the industry's economy is improving.

According to the statistics of National Bureau of statistics, in 2018 1-3, the income of owner's business revenue of China's above scale chemical fiber weaving processing totaled 23 billion 958 million yuan, an increase of 11.82% over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 2.81 percentage points over the same period last year. The total profit totaled 724 million yuan, up 16.39% over the same period last year, and the rate of increase was 6.48 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. The profit margin was 3.02%, a decrease of 1.69 percentage points compared with the same period last year.

As can be seen from Figure 6, in 2018, 1-3, the growth rate of the three fee growth of China's chemical fiber weaving and processing industry slowed down slowly. The growth rate of the main business revenue and total profit volume slowed down considerably, but it still maintained a positive growth. The profit margin decreased from 2017 to 2017, but it was more stable in 2018.

In 2017, Wujiang, Xiuzhou and other areas with no evidence of over standard, low and small retail businesses were gradually shutting down, the market self-regulation, the standard enterprises were producing normally, and the profits were stabilized.

In 2017, China's filament weaving

Having experienced the baptism of "environmental storm", manufacturers have been able to reshuffle the cards, and small and small enterprises have been closed down. Relatively large scale enterprises are also working hard to rectify and upgrade the equipment level, increase the intelligent management system, improve product quality and enhance production efficiency, and in addition, the market is standardized and the competition is fair and orderly. Entrepreneurs show higher confidence.

This is also confirmed by the 2018 spring questionnaire survey of the filament weaving industry. The results of the questionnaire show that 52.94% of the enterprises believe that the international market in 2018 is the same as in 2017, and 26.47% of the enterprises think it is better than 2017.

58.33% of enterprises believe that China's domestic market will be better than 2017 in 2018, and enterprises' confidence will be higher.

China's filament weaving is expected in 2018.

There will be better development.