Why Can PTA Futures Win The Position Of "China Price"? The Story Behind This Zhengzhou World'S Futures Fair Is Uncovered.

The price has been developing at a high level in recent years, which has aroused great concern in the market.

It has once again become the focus of attention of all parties in the market.

In September 9th, the Zhengzhou Municipal People's government, the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group jointly hosted the annual event of the global futures market.

It was held in Zhengzhou.

Vice President Fang Xinghai, Dai Baihua, vice governor of Henan Provincial People's government, American economist, Professor Robert Barrow of Harvard University, Michael Jill, chief executive officer of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and other "heavyweight" guests attended the meeting.

And on this "tall and tall" forum,

As a focus of attention, the PTA forum was held on the same day.

So what is the current function of PTA futures? How do we view the recent developments?

What are the attitudes and actions of polyester enterprises in the current market? What is the value and status of PTA futures in the global aromatics industry chain?

In the process of internationalization, why can PTA futures play the role of "pacesetter"?

This year is the 40th anniversary of reform and opening up, and the 30th anniversary of China's exploration of futures trading.

Fang Xinghai, vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, pointed out that the futures market is a product of reform and opening up. With the advent of reform and opening up, the futures market should be pported and extended.

As the theme of "2018 China (Zhengzhou) International Futures forum internationalization forum", "futures market serves modern economic system construction", the fundamental purpose of futures market since its birth is to serve the real economy.

In the early days of reform and opening up, in order to coordinate the reform of grain circulation system and stabilize the grain market, the State Council decided to establish a futures market. As the first pilot unit of the futures market in China, Zheng Shang emerged as the times require in 1990.

At present, Zheng has 18 futures varieties, of which PTA futures have been traded for 11 years, and have become "star varieties".

Especially in recent years, the PTA futures market has been running smoothly, the market scale has been steadily increasing, and the function of price discovery and risk aversion has been brought into full play, and the capability of serving the real economy has been continuously enhanced.

Data show that since 2015, the average daily turnover of PTA futures is more than 550 thousand hands, and average daily positions are over 650 thousand hands. It has become the largest chemical product variety in the domestic market.

At present, the price of PTA futures has become the pricing benchmark of spot trade. China's PTA futures have become the "weathervane" of the global polyester industry chain.

According to statistics, 90% of PTA production enterprises and trading enterprises are using PTA futures to avoid risks. In 2018 1~8, the correlation between PTA futures price and spot price was as high as 0.99, and the breadth and depth of industrial enterprises participating in PTA futures generally increased.

Yu Xuanfeng, deputy general manager of Zhengzhou commodity exchange, said that the capacity of PTA futures market to serve the real enterprises continued to increase. In the domestic futures variety function evaluation, PTA futures stabilized in the top 5, which is the best chemical product with the best function.

Moreover, since October 2017, Zhengshang has launched PTA futures continuous active measures, such as reducing the paction cost and the cost of the target contract, introducing the market maker and other measures to guide investors to participate in the target contract paction. The target contract volume and position increased significantly, the bid ask spread decreased significantly, and the contract continuity improved significantly, which facilitated the continuous participation of industrial customers in PTA futures trading delivery.

Regarding this, Zhu Yang, director of the information and marketing department of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, said that PTA is an important hub linking oil and chemical industry and textile two pillar industries of the national economy, and is playing a leading role in the industrial chain.

Focusing on the important spirit of enhancing the capability of serving the real economy, Zheng Shang has been constantly making the best, doing fine and strengthening commodity futures, and constantly improving the varieties of chemical futures.

Since the launch of PTA futures market, the market has been running smoothly and the market participation has been increasing. It provides an effective price reference for the upstream and downstream industries, and has played a guiding role in domestic prices.

Yu Xuanfeng, deputy general manager of Zheng Shang's office, said that the next step is to further develop the PTA futures market and implement the PTA futures open to the outside world. It will also promote the development of PTA options trading, improve the risk management system of the polyester industry, and meet the risk management needs of personalized and diversified entities.

In addition, Zheng Shang will also develop related staple fiber and other related varieties, improve the futures chain of polyester industry chain, and provide more guarantee tools for polyester enterprises.

Polyester enterprises should fully understand the fundamentals of supply and demand.

Although market participants in the market economy have already been familiar with the ups and downs of prices, even so, the PTA futures price has been constantly rising to a new high in recent years.

Under the condition of unprecedented market activity, at present, the processing fee of PTA per ton is more than 2000 yuan, which is called "staged myth".

"PTA companies may have thought that the profit per ton of products could be six hundred or seven hundred yuan, which was pretty good, so they probably did not expect this market to happen at the moment.

It seems, never say impossible. "

Talking about the recent market, Wood McKenzie, PCI's chief consultant, Li Shufu sent such a feeling.

For the next supply and demand in the market, Li Shufu predicted that China is now the world's largest producer and consumer of PTA, and there are not many PTA new installations put into operation in the late stage. It is expected that with the growth of demand, the utilization of PTA will gradually increase.

Moreover, as China's PTA is basically self-sufficient, India has become the world's largest importer of PTA, and its PTA capacity and output growth can not meet the demand growth.

In the next 3 years, polyester production in the Middle East is expected to grow rapidly. Although its total volume may not be as large as that in China or India, the import demand for PTA will increase.

Zhao Cheng analysis, a senior analyst at Heng Tian LAN Xiu Technology Co., Ltd., pointed out that in the aromatics industry chain, PX is mainly used to produce PTA, while PTA is mainly used to produce polyester.

In the first half of 2018, although the domestic PTA production increased considerably, it basically matched the new demand in the polyester industry. Therefore, the increase in PTA social inventories was limited, and PTA profits were further restored. The degree of industrial integration was further deepened, and the overall profit of PX-PTA- polyester was shared. This is the new feature of the domestic polyester Market in 2018.

Zhao city also introduced that according to the calculation, the growth rate of PTA output in China is about 13.5%~16% this year, and the growth rate of polyester production is about 12%~14%. In this state, the amount of PTA stock increase is still limited, and it will even be in the inventory structure. Combined with the new market increments, the whole year PTA in 2018 is still in a tight supply and demand pattern.

Therefore, it is expected that in the coming period, the "high price" of PTA will become normal. This will ultimately benefit from the continuous prosperity cycle of the industry as a whole. PTA futures will still be the best choice for the chemical sector.

The upper and middle enterprises in the PTA industry chain use PTA futures tools to avoid operating risks, which are rich and varied, from direct purchase and sale in the futures market to spot price trading, base trading, warehouse receipt trading, warehouse receipt financing, off site options, regulating production capacity, managing inventory and pporting mode.

More than 80% of polyester enterprises in China are using PTA futures to avoid risks.

About how to scientifically use PTA futures to control operational risks, Fujian Jin Lun high fiber Limited by Share Ltd (owns 500 thousand tons of polyester filament and short fiber annual capacity of each, is one of the polyester leading enterprises in Southern China area) general manager Liu Dewei pointed out that domestic polyester enterprises can use PTA period goods stable operation, take PTA futures contract price as reference, carry out some spot operation, control raw material stock.

In the case of buying and making up contracts, when PTA futures price is lower than the average price of the contract, it can be bought, and it can also make a cash pfer or delivery at a reasonable time, reduce freight reasonably and ensure sufficient funds.

Polyester enterprises can participate in PTA futures hedging from the perspective of managing product inventory.

First, it is possible to implement unified hedging, and to formulate a hedging strategy, rather than a multi management strategy, after identifying and summarizing the overall inventory situation.

Two, we can make reasonable use of contracts in recent months to reduce costs.

Polyester enterprises can participate in PTA hedging from the perspective of forward sales orders. They can buy raw materials on the PTA futures market according to the downstream product price and delivery date. They can flexibly participate in the main contract's conversion according to the needs of PTA inventory.

According to the introduction, generally speaking, polyester factories can pick up sales orders for 1~2 months from now on, and can push the price of PTA and glycol according to the price of sales orders.

For example, if the enterprises pick up the staple fibers in October, they will push back. If the polyester enterprises think that their own processing fees can reach 1100 yuan / ton, and the cash flow is 200 yuan / ton, they can lock the PTA quantity they need in the forward futures according to the corresponding PTA price.

For pet enterprises to use PTA futures risk prevention and control need to pay attention to what matters, Liu Dewei pointed out that enterprises can not just take the lead in production, rational use of futures tools help polyester enterprises to flexibly arrange business operation funds.

Enterprises should always pay close attention to the business environment of the industry, and must not be divorced from the international environment. They must follow the macro and industry prospects to flexibly adjust the hedging plan.

"Pet enterprises should not be jealous. PTA producers now have a profit of 2000 yuan per ton. They have also experienced the stage of processing fees and operating losses of only two hundred or three hundred yuan per ton. They also insisted on sticking to their teeth at that time.

And when the current market is favorable for PTA manufacturers, polyester enterprises should be steadfast in their own business, and have a clear idea of the extent to which the enterprises can afford to increase their raw material prices. In particular, we must make an accurate judgement of the fundamentals of supply and demand in the market.

Liu Dewei said.

Liu Dewei also stressed: "in fact, the emergence of market depends on the fundamentals of supply and demand, because fundamentally speaking, the futures market is a reflection of the spot market.

In the final analysis, those who did not seize the opportunity in the current market were not thorough enough to study the supply and demand side of the market, and the fundamental functions of the value discovery in the futures market were also not thoroughly studied.

Fang Xinghai, vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, pointed out that futures markets mainly include commodity futures and financial futures.

In today's world, almost every commodity is faced with a global market without borders.

This objectively requires an influential commodity futures market to have a global paction. Investors of both sides must come from all parts of the world. Otherwise, futures prices determined cannot accurately reflect the actual supply and demand relationship of bulk commodities, which is inaccurate and authoritative.

Although financial futures still have certain regional characteristics, with the acceleration of China's financial opening up, more and more foreign investors have entered our financial market. They urgently need to participate in financial futures trading to manage risks and provide more and better services to customers. This objectively requires that our financial futures should also be accelerated to open to the outside world.

Chen Huaping, chairman of the Zhengzhou commodity exchange, also said that the nineteen party proposed that we should implement the new development concept and build a modern economic system.

This not only brings a rare opportunity for the development of the futures market, but also puts forward new requirements for the reform and opening up of the futures market.

In combination with China's national conditions, futures market practice and its own reality, Zheng Shang will comprehensively promote five innovations, namely, product innovation, business innovation, rule innovation, technological innovation and work mode innovation, and constantly enhance the development momentum of Zheng Shang.

As a "star breed" of Zheng Shang, in the process of internationalization of China's futures, PTA futures acted as a "leader".

From a deeper perspective, this is certainly closely related to the international status of China's PTA and polyester industry.

China is already the world's largest producer and consumer of polyester. The leading polyester companies, including Rongsheng, Hengyi, Hengli and Tong Kun, have already laid the industrial chain to the upstream PTA and PX terminals.

Yisheng, Hengli and other enterprises PTA production technology level, capacity scale in the forefront of the world.

The annual output of 2017 shows that the annual output of polyester filament in China is about 39 million 340 thousand tons. It is expected that in 2018, the domestic market will also add millions of tons of new polyester production in 2018. From export data, in 2017, China's export chemical fiber products are more than 4 million tons, polyester filament and polyester staple mainly, and the export of polyester filament is about 2 million 40 thousand tons, accounting for about 50.47% of the total export of China's chemical fiber products, and about 1 million 10 thousand tons of polyester staple exports, accounting for about 25.15% of the total export of chemical fiber products.

There is no doubt that China's polyester industry and PTA industry have become the most important force affecting the global market.

Next, with the successful commissioning of several private enterprises' refinery projects, the self-sufficiency rate of China's PX will be greatly improved, which will further rewrite the global petrochemical industry and polyester industry.

That is to say, on the industrial chain of "PX-PTA- polyester", the "Chinese price" will receive more and more attention from the global practitioners. The Chinese market will increasingly highlight the value of the "price vane" of the global polyester industry chain, and the commodity futures tool is just full of the urgent demand of the international market.

From the actual situation of the futures market, with the deepening of China's opening up to the outside world, especially the continuous development of the "one belt and one road" construction, the internationalization level of China's futures market is gradually improving.

Especially this year, the successful listing of crude oil futures and the successful introduction of iron ore futures into overseas traders signifies a substantial step forward in the internationalization of China's futures market.

In the future, with the landing of more major open initiatives, it will be a general trend to accelerate the internationalization of the futures market.

Commodity trade is global, so commodity futures market is also global.

The important sign of high quality futures market is that futures prices have broader and more authoritative representativeness.

The commodity supply and demand corresponding to commodity futures, including PTA, is increasingly showing the characteristics of globalization. Only with more openness, can domestic and foreign investors easily participate in pactions and converge the global supply and demand information, so futures prices will be more representative and have wider influence.

At the same time, with the enhancement of international competitiveness, the convenience of investment and trade, and the continuous development of "one belt and one road" construction, more and more Chinese enterprises are taking the "going out" step.

With the deepening of two-way opening, the demand for pricing and managing risks in futures market has become increasingly strong.

It is against this background that China's unique PTA futures varieties are widely concerned by the international market and assume the important task of "international leader of China's futures varieties".

As a result, the role of PTA futures in the opening up of China's futures market in September 8th was widely mentioned in the 2018 China (Zhengzhou) International Futures forum internationalization Forum jointly sponsored by the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Xiong Jun, general manager of Zhengzhou commodity exchange, said that in promoting the opening of specific products, combined with the characteristics of varieties, PTA was selected as a pilot variety by Zhengshang, and the plan of introducing PTA into overseas traders was formulated. The rules, system revision, system development and other preparations were completed.

At present, there are 27 deliverable brands in PTA futures, including 8 brands from abroad.

According to the briefing, Zhengshang has revised 12 related business rules, 2 new rules, and the preparatory work for opening accounts and trading systems has been completed. Recently, Zhengshang has expanded the bonded delivery pilot varieties to PTA, and the bonded delivery licenses have been approved. Meanwhile, the request for specific varieties of PTA futures has been submitted to the China Securities Regulatory Commission.

Next, Zheng will continue to deepen the implementation of the preparatory work, take the opening of PTA as an opportunity to introduce a group of overseas participants with strong, well-known and high management standards to optimize the market structure and enhance the level of internationalization. On the basis of the successful pilot project of PTA, we will study and promote the opening up of the specific varieties of other import and export trade and the urgent need for foreign investors.

"There is one basic idea of internationalization of China's futures varieties, that is, futures with Chinese characteristics can try to go out first, such as black series, PTA futures."

Hu Yuyue, director of the securities and Futures Research Institute of Beijing Technology and Business University, said.