My Heart'S Broken! 618 The Shopping Festival Has Made Great Achievements In Clothing Category, But The Textile Terminal Has Been Continuously Sluggish.

Recently, the hot 618 Shopping Festival, the clothing category performance is very bright, and the current textile terminal enterprise inventory backlog can not do anything to make a sharp contrast.

Take Tmall 618 as an example. In June 16th alone, sales of clothing category increased by more than 266% over the first 1 hours. In addition, sports outdoor clothing category, sales of hundreds of millions of dollars spent only 1 minutes; men's clothing category, 2 minutes sales of 100 million! Women's clothing category, sales of 7 minutes break billion! Among them, the sales of body clothing category increased by 20 times. The sun protection sleeves sold 500 thousand pieces in 24 minutes, up 11 times from last year. The sun hat sold more than 1 million pieces in just 39 minutes.

In addition, some tide brands and personal clothing brands are also very bright. Lv Yan's personal brand COMME MOI completed the whole day's performance of 618 last year in just 1 minutes, while sales of clothing such as Hanfu and other clothing sales increased by 320% in June 16th.

Just looking at the brilliant achievements of clothing category in the 618 Shopping Festival, the textile people must have the illusion of being in the "textile flourishing age".

However, compared with the brightest report card of clothing category in the 618 Shopping Festival, the textile boss can only sigh "heart!" At present, the weaving inventory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is still at a historical high level. According to the weaving manager, the market is still hard to find, and it can only be done piecemeal with small bills.

Looking at the current textile industry from the macro data, the growth trend of textile and apparel demand both in and outside of 1-5 is showing a downward trend in the month. In 1-5, the growth rate of retail sales of textiles and garments was only 2.6%, a sharp decrease compared with the 8% growth of last year, while the demand for external exports decreased by 2.23% compared with the same period last month.

Supply side, overcapacity

The supply side overcapacity is an indisputable fact. Due to environmental protection and other factors, a large number of textile enterprises in the coastal areas have shifted to the central and western regions and Southeast Asian regions, and have expanded production capacity by several times. These capacities have broken out from last year to this year, resulting in overcapacity and intensified competition in the industry.

Demand side, domestic demand and external demand are all in trouble.

The external demand level is significantly affected by the Sino US trade war. Textile export data in the first quarter of this year are very colorful, mainly due to traders' "grab export"! In order to avoid the risk of tax increase, many traders frantically shipped in the first quarter, to a certain extent, overdraft the future demand, so the first quarter of textile exports increased significantly. In the two quarter, export orders were severely damaged by the Sino US trade war.

The domestic demand level is divided into real estate domestic demand (domestic textile) and clothing domestic demand.

About home textiles, since 2015, the real estate super boom cycle (improvement + speculation + Hardcover) has led to a surge in demand for home textiles, and a negative growth in real estate in the fourth quarter of 2018. From a long period of view, the demand for home textiles is at a low ebb.

About clothing, textile and garment industry in the past 2012-2015 years in the inventory cycle, the clothing industry closed shop and B2C network flat operation has significant effect on the industry to effectively inventory, the upstream raw materials and polyester consumption significantly inhibited, in 2016 began to slowly replenishment, in 2017, the whole inventory is still a lot of replenishment. In 2018, the clothing enterprises' inventory grew faster than that of the previous year, and the finished goods inventory growth rate has been approaching the level of 10% growth. After more than two years of replenishment cycle, with the downward pressure of the economy and the slowdown of terminal consumption, the whole garment enterprises' replenishment cycle has also ended. The overall demand for clothing has gradually stabilized since the second half of 2018. At present, clothing enterprises are still in the stage of textile fabric inventory digestion.

Seek opportunities in difficult situations and look for hope in pessimism.

It is true that the textile industry is in a painful period and faces many challenges. But textile people should not be blinded by pessimism. We need to find opportunities in the plight and look for hope in pessimism.

At least 618 of the excellent performance of clothing categories is enough to prove that we are relying on a strong market for purchasing power. Clothing is just needed forever, and we also have a huge market with unlimited potential. In addition, in June 18th, the leaders of China and the United States made calls, and the US side hoped to conduct in-depth consultations with China at the G20 summit.