The Stock Price Of Film Companies Declines After The National Day Archives: Uncertainty Remains, Film Shortage At The End Of The Year

The National Day holiday is over, and the challenge of the film market is just beginning.

According to the preliminary statistics of the National Film Funding office, during the National Day 2020 (October 1-8), the national film box office will total 3.952 billion yuan, attracting nearly 100 million people to watch.

Among them, the film "I and my hometown" accumulated box office of 1.87 billion yuan; Jiang Ziya accumulated box office of 1.384 billion yuan; the box office of "champion" was 360 million yuan; the box office of "rush vanguard" was 164 million yuan; and the cumulative box office of "one point is home" was 100 million yuan.

There is still a gap in this performance over the same period of last year. During the 7-day holidays last year, the box office of the National Day box office reached 4.466 billion yuan, and the number of film viewers was also declining. 75% attendance rate after the outbreak or the influencing factors, but the degree of influence is limited. The reporter noticed when watching films in several top movie theaters in Beijing that under the restriction of attendance rate, most cinemas closed the front row non gold seats, and the front seats were not always easy to sell. According to the lighthouse data, the attendance rate of the National Day archives was 36% last year and 26.93% this year.

Of course, except for last year, this year's National Day archives are very good in the history of films of the same period, and there is a big gap between the National Day archives and the third place in history (the box office of 2017 is 2.656 billion yuan).

What reassures the industry is that nearly 100 million people watched the film, which means that the audience's fear of watching the film after the epidemic has been reduced to the minimum. Previously, several film directors told the 21st century economic reporter that the most worrying thing was that the audience did not dare to come to the cinema, which would affect the release rhythm of the film side.

Industry people are relieved, but the capital market is still full of doubts about the film industry. As of the close of October 9, Beijing culture, the first producer of "my hometown and I", closed at 7.99 yuan, down 4.31%; light media, the main producer of Jiang Ziya, closed at 14.40 yuan, down 13.57%; Huanxi media, the producer of "champion", closed at HK $1.37, down 0.72%; Chinese film, the producer of avant garde, closed at 14.11 yuan, a slight increase of 0.14%. Before the epidemic, the company's main business was Alibaba pictures, the main producer of "one point is home", closed at HK $1.15, down 3.36%.

Although the audience's fear of watching movies after the epidemic has been minimized, the capital market is still full of doubts about the film industry. Picture vision China

Each basic stock price has its own reason, but the collective floating green after the most important period has common factors.

Film giants must move forward in uncertainty.

Looking for certainty

The short selling of film companies in the market, to a large extent, lies in its uncertainty.

This year's National Day archives staged a surprising "counter attack". The unstoppable animation "Jiang Ziya" suffered a decline in word-of-mouth. On the third day of its release, it was surpassed by the theme film "I and my hometown" focusing on poverty alleviation, and finally opened a distance of nearly 500 million yuan.

Jiang Ziya is highly anticipated because of the birth of Nezha's demon child produced by light media. My hometown and I is a comedy film with five stories directed by Ning Hao, Xu Zheng, Chen Sicheng, Yan Fei, Peng Dameng, Deng Chao and Yu Baimei. To a large extent, the explosion of Nezha's demon child has lifted the light to a high share price, which has opened a distance from many film companies.

However, Jiang Ziya, which attracted much attention, did not perform as expected in the end, largely because the story was not successfully told. "Jiang Ziya" has exquisite and magnificent pictures, and the production team is sincere. Technically, it can be called the first echelon in China, and even surpasses the birth of Nezha's Devil boy. ". However, the problem with Jiang Ziya is that there are too many things to express, which leads to the plot being too compact and the turning point is stiff.

"Me and my hometown" is the opposite. "My hometown and I" is a collection of stories by several directors, which is fast-paced, fluent and just right inspiring. It is difficult to say that this film is the representative work of all directors, but it is highly completed and timely.

The bigger gap is the rate of return. "I and my hometown", which is relatively "short and easy", even won a lot of subsidies. According to the Beijing Cultural financial report, the film was supported by 13 million yuan from the national film administration and 10 million yuan from the publicity and culture guidance fund of Beijing Cultural Development Center.

On the evening of October 9, Beijing Culture announced that as of October 8, its revenue from "I and my hometown" was about 80 million yuan to 100 million yuan, and the cumulative box office income of the film was about 1.871 billion yuan.

In view of the high investment in animation, "Jiang Ziya" director Cheng Teng admitted that he did not expect the box office in particular, "I hope investors don't lose money.". In this case, will undoubtedly affect the performance of light. In fact, light has regarded animation as a competitive product, and has invested in more than 20 animation industry chain upstream and downstream companies. The failure of Jiang Ziya will make the outside world doubt the long-term value of light.

There are many reasons for the company's vigorous layout of animation. The company started from television and has no historical advantages in the film industry as Huayi Brothers and China film. Moreover, the animation industry itself is a long chain market. If IP is successfully created, it is more controllable. Take Disney as an example. In fiscal year 2018, the revenue of media network and film and television entertainment accounted for 58%, theme park, copyright and publishing, game and retail and others accounted for 42%. Among them, the revenue of theme park, copyright and publishing and games, retail and others in fiscal year 2018 was 20.3 billion US dollars, 3.1 billion dollars and 1.6 billion US dollars respectively. From the perspective of Japanese animation industry market, according to the annual user payment amount of animation market calculated by Japan Animation Association, the scale of animation commercialization market in 2017 was 523.2 billion yen, accounting for 24% of the scale of Japanese animation industry.

The failure of Jiang Ziya is not the animation itself. For light, animation has historical advantages, but it needs to be solved. How to persuade capital, and more importantly, to make the project commercial return relatively controllable, after all, animation investment is too large.

The semi annual report shows that in the current period, the company's revenue was 259 million yuan, which was - 77.86% year-on-year; the net profit was 20.572 million yuan, which was - 80.46% year on year; the balance of cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period was 1.356 billion yuan, which was 1.043 billion yuan in the same period last year.

Although "my hometown and I" is very popular, the cultural fundamentals of Beijing, the producer behind it, are not as good as the light. The financial report shows that the company involved in all kinds of disturbances had a revenue of 5.6485 million yuan in the first half of the year, which was - 91.37% year-on-year; the net loss was 64.2983 million yuan, 39.87% year-on-year; the balance of cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period was only 44.4036 million yuan, compared with 218 million yuan in the same period last year.

"No pieces to arrange"

As far as capital is concerned, there are all kinds of problems in the back producers or the films themselves in the head films Jiang Ziya and me and my hometown. It is really difficult to be optimistic about them.

In fact, the so-called "my hometown and I" highlights the ability to tell a good story, which was originally regarded as the basic skill of the film, but behind it is the choice of the producer. This kind of certainty is very difficult to understand and understand for the capital market.

On the other hand, the highlight period of the National Day has just passed, and the industry has begun to worry about the future "no piece to arrange.".

Recently, cineworld, the UK's largest and world's second largest cinema operator, announced that it would suspend its operations in the UK and the us from October 8. Behind the closure of the giant is that the overseas epidemic situation remains unchanged. Previously, blockbusters such as "the black widow" and "the tragedy on the Nile" have already said that they will continue to be delayed. Hollywood will again face the situation of no films in the next two months, and the blockbusters will not be able to enter the Chinese market.

Without Hollywood blockbusters, domestic new blockbusters are relatively rare. Apart from the film "vajragawa" jointly directed by Guan Hu, Guo fan and Lu Yang, which is scheduled to be released on October 25, there was no blockbuster with special market appeal until December.

Blockbusters are interested in the Spring Festival. On October 9, "Chinatown detective 3" announced that it will file next year's Spring Festival. In addition, a number of industry insiders told the 21st century economic report that many commercial blockbusters are trying to implement the schedule.

This has exacerbated the near future shortage. "No pieces to arrange, copy and paste every day." The manager of the cinema is so funny, with bitterness.

Behind the film shortage is that the film companies themselves are stabilizing, and the essence is that they choose to shrink under the harsh living environment. It's a death blow to the cinema.

"It's just going to be there. There's no choice." Many people in Beijing said that they have been subsidizing the present with their savings.

According to the report, there are still no more than 20 movie theaters in the country, accounting for less than 20% of the total number of box office tickets by the end of last year.