Observation On A-Share Under The Change Of Population Pattern: Silver Hair Economy And Mother Child Economy Are Sought After By Capital

On May 11, the main data results of the seventh national census were released, and the capital market with a good sense of smell moved.

In the morning of the day, pension concept stocks took the lead, while second-child concept stocks rose. By the end of the day, kaineng health, Nanfang shares, heavy Pharmaceutical Holdings, Dahu shares, Guangyu group, Yihua health, Hunan development, etc. were trading in succession; In the second child concept plate, the trading limit of Camellia shares and Xinhua brocade, Junyao health, taipingniao, Changjiang health, innovative medical care, etc. followed.

Aging and fertility rate are two major issues of social concern. The results of this census show that the total population of China is 141.78 million, an increase of 5.38% compared with 2010 (the sixth national census, the same below); The average annual growth rate was 0.53%, 0.04 percentage points lower than the average annual growth rate of 0.57% from 2000 to 2010. China's population has continued to maintain a low growth rate for 10 years.

Ning Jizhe, director of the National Bureau of statistics, said that the major changes in China's population in the past decade reflect the historical process of China's economic, social and population development. At the same time, it also reflects some structural contradictions in China's population development, such as the decline in the size of the working age population and women of childbearing age, the deepening of aging, the decline of the total fertility rate and the low number of births.

What impact will the new changes in China's population structure have on related industries? The reaction of A-share market may serve as a window for observation.

"Silver economy" is active

From the perspective of age composition, the aging degree of China's population is further deepened, and it will continue to face the pressure of long-term balanced development of population for a period of time in the future. According to the data, there are 264.02 million people aged 60 and above, accounting for 18.70%, an increase of 5.44 percentage points compared with 2010.

Ning said that the aging of the population is an important trend of social development and the basic national conditions of China for a long period of time in the future. This is both a challenge and an opportunity. For example, from the perspective of challenges, the aging population will reduce the supply of labor, increase the burden of family pension and the pressure of the supply of basic public services. At the same time, we should also see that the aging population promotes the development of the "silver economy", expands the consumption of products and services for the elderly, and is also conducive to promoting technological progress. All this brings new opportunities.

The reporter of 21st century economic report has noticed that recently, questions about this topic have increased sharply on the interactive platform of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, and investors are concerned about the layout of pension business of A-share companies.

According to the different demand attributes, the pension industry can be divided into medical and health care industry, daily necessities industry, domestic service industry, real estate industry, insurance industry, financial industry, entertainment and culture industry, tourism industry, consulting service industry, etc.

For example, a number of real estate companies are involved in pension projects. On the investment platform, Shi rongzhaoye replied that the plot area of the company's Beijing project is about 160000 square meters, which is located in Daxing District, Beijing, and is planned to be used for the development of pension projects. Binjiang group is mainly engaged in real estate development and its extended business, which regards pension as one of the five business sectors. Vanke said the company has made some explorations in social pension solutions, but has not yet made it its main business. Zhongnan Construction Co., Ltd. has invested in a pension service platform in 2019.

The development of Hunan Province, which is mainly engaged in hydropower generation and health care, pension and health care industry, has also attracted capital attention. It is reported that in terms of pension business, by the end of last year, the company had signed 78 community home-based care service centers and optimized the operation of 45 community home-based elderly care service centers.

However, the most concerned is the growth expectation of medical consumption brought by aging. Huang Wentao, chief analyst of macro fixed income of China CITIC, pointed out that "the acceleration of aging will lead to high growth of consumption related to medical and health care (appliances, drugs and services). From the historical data, no matter in Japan or China, due to the continuous increase of aging, health care related consumption is the fastest growing area of all kinds of consumption expenditure. "

Judging from the recent performance of A-shares, Rongjie health, Zhongyao holdings, Yihua health, Fangsheng pharmaceutical, Jingjing pharmaceutical, Jinling pharmaceutical, Nanjing Pharmaceutical and other medical stocks showed a prominent rise.

Dong Dengxin, director of the Institute of Finance and securities of Wuhan University of science and technology, has long been concerned about the field of pension. In an interview with the 21st century economic report, Dong Dengxin said that the pension service industry is a huge business opportunity and a sunrise industry, which will stimulate consumption, expand domestic demand and promote the upgrading of China's economic industry“ The pension service industry is highly related. Behind the 260 million elderly, there is a huge demand for pension in institutions, communities and homes, which is conducive to the development of nursing workers and home economics industry, especially to expand the employment of older workers. In addition, there is the market potential for aging transformation, the growth of consumption of various daily necessities, and even the development of robot industry serving the elderly. "

Chen Mengjie, a strategic analyst of YueKai securities, further told reporters, "at present, China's pension modes include home-based, community-based and institutional pension, of which the home-based mode is the main mode, and there is still a large room for improvement in the proportion of institutional pension. There is a lack of professional pension institutions that meet the consumption level of residents and have high service quality. With the gradual diversification, maturity and marketization of pension institutions, the relevant real estate, health care, combination of medical care and nursing will usher in a larger market space. "

Market demand stimulated by fertility potential

At the same time of deepening the aging degree, another problem that attracts market attention is low-speed population growth and low fertility rate.

Ning Jizhe said that the total fertility rate of women of childbearing age in China will be 1.3 in 2020, which is already at a low level. This is mainly affected by the continuous decrease in the number of women of childbearing age and the gradual weakening of the "two child" effect. The new crown pneumonia epidemic increased the uncertainty of life and worry about hospital delivery, and further reduced the residents' willingness to have children.

For this issue, we need to look at it in two. The acceleration of fewer children will drive the growth of consumption of mother and child, children and education to be limited. However, the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China clearly requests to optimize the fertility policy and enhance its inclusiveness. The outline of the national "14th five year plan" adopted by the National People's Congress also clearly points out that it is necessary to promote the realization of an appropriate fertility level, reduce the cost of family birth, parenting and education, and release the potential of the fertility policy.

Ning Jizhe said, "according to the relevant survey of the National Bureau of statistics, the number of children of childbearing age women in China is 1.8, so long as the corresponding support measures are taken, the actual fertility potential can be brought into play."

It is based on such fertility expectations that the market is enthusiastic about the related target of A-share "second child". Specifically, it involves maternal and infant products, toys, maternal and infant medical and child medication, infant education, children's clothing and other aspects.

The company is mainly engaged in the production and sales of household products mainly made of daily plastic products, including children's Straw Cup, thermos cup, armchair, etc.

Jiangnan high fiber replied on the interactive platform that the company's composite staple fiber products are mainly used for baby diapers, and the national open birth policy will further boost the overall demand of the domestic maternal and infant industry, and bring market opportunities to the composite staple fiber. In the field of infant and child care, the company's products in the cotton era cover multiple consumer groups, such as mothers, infants, children and adults, spanning a number of product lines, including high-end cotton towel, female care, infant and child care, adult clothing, home textile products, etc.

Chen Mengjie said in an interview, "with regard to the concept of second child, with the deepening of consumption upgrading, parents are more likely to pursue high-quality products and pay more attention to early training, and infant food, toys and early education are expected to continue to benefit."

"In the context of an aging population, it is imperative to increase the fertility rate. Preschool education, early childhood education, child care and other industries will usher in great development. Generally speaking, nurseries and pension are two industries with relatively large policy dividend, and they will also be industries actively participated in by social capital. In the future, the upstream and downstream links that are highly related to these two industries will have a bright future. " Dong Dengxin said.

In addition to the above two areas, there are some new changes in the population data. For example, compared with 2010, the proportion of people aged 0-14, 15-59, 60 and above increased by 1.35%, 6.79% and 5.44% respectively; Compared with 2010, the number of university educated people per 100000 people increased to 15467, and the illiteracy rate decreased from 4.08% to 2.67%.

In this regard, Chen Mengjie said that changes in age structure will bring structural changes to the consumer market, and the proportion of medical, insurance, medical and aesthetic consumption is expected to increase. The continuous improvement of population quality has brought more development opportunities to the education industry. The subdivision industries such as early education, extracurricular training and skill training are expected to continue to grow. Under the concept of lifelong learning, the education for the elderly also has a large market space.