Data Analysis: Development Report Of China'S Clothing Consumption Market In Recent Two Years

In the first 10 months of 2021, China's clothing consumption has achieved a restorative growth. The retail sales of clothing commodities above the quota increased by 19.3% year-on-year and 1.9% compared with the same period in 2019. The trend of clothing consumption upgrading remained unchanged, and the consumer price of clothing rose by 0.3% year-on-year. In terms of retail channels, the consumption of physical stores is picking up. The clothing retail sales, retail volume and average consumption price of key large-scale retail enterprises have achieved positive growth year-on-year, and the market competitiveness has rebounded. The consumption of online "wear" goods has achieved rapid growth, but after deducting the influence of low base, the average growth rate in two years has dropped to single digit, which is lower than the average growth level of online consumption. In the second half of the year, especially since August, the downward pressure on the clothing consumer market has been greater, the growth rate of online and offline clothing consumption has slowed down, and the consumer behavior of residents is more cautious.

　　1. The retail sales of clothing commodities above the Quota exceed the level in the same period of 2019

In 2021, the scale of clothing retail sales of units above the quota exceeded the level of the same period in 2019. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in the first 10 months of 2021, the retail sales of clothing commodities of units above the quota reached 782.38 billion yuan, an increase of 19.3% over the same period of last year, and the increase was 3.8 percentage points higher than the average growth rate of retail sales of units above the quota. However, it is estimated that, compared with the same period in 2019, the retail sales of clothing goods of units above the quota will increase by 1.9%, which is 8.5 percentage points lower than the average growth rate of retail sales of units above the quota. Therefore, although the clothing consumer market achieved rapid growth in the first 10 months of 2021, the actual recovery rate is not prominent if the low base effect is deducted.

Figure 1 growth rate of retail sales of clothing commodities above Designated Size in the first 10 months of 2010-2021

Source: National Bureau of statistics

2. Clothing consumer prices rose moderately

The activity of the clothing consumer market has been improved, and the price rise has dropped in the same period, which makes the clothing consumer price rise moderately this year. However, due to the consumer psychology of residents is still cautious, the inventory level of enterprises has been improved under the influence of the epidemic, which makes it difficult to achieve a substantial increase in the overall consumption price of clothing. In the first 10 months of 2021, the cumulative increase of clothing consumer price was 0.3%. Although the increase was higher than that in 2020, it was 0.4 percentage points lower than that of consumer price.

Chart 2: consumer price increase of clothing in the first 10 months of 2010-2021

Source: National Bureau of statistics

1. The growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods in physical stores is faster than that of online physical goods

In 2021, the off-line passenger flow will pick up, the cultivation and construction of international consumption center city will start, and the construction of county-level commercial system will enter a new stage of development. The main consumer cities will strengthen the measures of store upgrading and new product introduction, so as to promote the rapid growth of physical store consumption, and become an important stage to show supply innovation and consumption upgrading. According to estimates, in the first 10 months, the retail sales of consumer goods in physical stores reached 27353.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.0%, which was 0.4 percentage points faster than that of online physical goods retail sales. The consumption of physical stores accounted for 76.3% of the total retail sales of consumer goods and contributed 76.7% to the growth of the consumer goods market, which is the leading force for expanding consumption. However, it should also be noted that the rapid growth of physical store consumption in 2021 is related to the low base of the same period. From the average growth rate of two years, it is still a steady and low growth trend.

Chart 3: growth rate of retail sales of offline physical stores in the first 10 months of 2015-2021

Source: National Bureau of statistics

2. The sales volume of department stores, professional stores and exclusive stores increased rapidly

The sales recovery of upgrading products has led to the rapid growth of relevant formats. In the first three quarters of 2021.9%, the growth rate of retail stores was 19.8% and that of specialty stores was 19.9% in the first three quarters. In the first 10 months of 2021, the retail sales of national key large-scale retail enterprises dominated by general merchandise increased by 13.2% year-on-year.

Chart 4: growth rate of retail sales of major retail formats of units above Designated Size in the first three quarters of 2017-2021

Source: National Bureau of statistics

Chart 5: growth rate of retail sales of national key large retail enterprises in the first 10 months of 2011-2021

Data source: China National Business Information Center

3. Clothing sales of national key large-scale retail enterprises are gradually warming up

In the first 10 months of 2021, the clothing retail sales of key large-scale retail enterprises in China increased by 15.3% year-on-year, which was faster than the average growth rate of commodity retail sales of national key large-scale retail enterprises by 2.1 percentage points. Among them, the retail sales of men's, women's and children's wear increased by 14.7%, 17.5% and 16.4% respectively. Although the clothing sales of large retail enterprises have recovered, due to the sporadic occurrence of local epidemic in the second half of the year, which has a certain impact on the passenger flow, the clothing sales of large retail enterprises have not yet recovered to the same period in 2019, and the sales of major clothing categories such as men's wear, women's clothing and children's clothing still have a certain gap with the same period in 2019.

Chart 6: growth rate of clothing retail sales of national key large retail enterprises in the first 10 months of 2010-2021

Data source: China National Business Information Center

Chart 7: growth rate of retail sales of men's, women's and children's wear of national key large retail enterprises in 2020 and the first 10 months of 2021

Data source: China National Business Information Center

4. The average price of clothing consumption of national key large-scale retail enterprises continued to increase

In the first 10 months of 2021, the average price of clothing consumption of national key large retail enterprises increased by 18.4% in the previous year, achieving a positive growth of 1.8% year-on-year, reflecting the continuous upgrading of clothing consumption of large retail enterprises, and obvious characteristics of quality consumption and brand consumption.

Chart 8: average price increase of clothing consumption of key large retail enterprises in China from 2010 to 2021

Data source: China National Business Information Center

5. The growth rate of clothing retail volume of national key large retail enterprises is lower than that of retail sales

Under the effect of low base value in the same period, in the first 10 months of 2021, the retail sales of clothing of key large-scale retail enterprises in China increased by 13.2% over the same period of last year, and the retail sales of leather clothing, cashmere and sweater increased rapidly. In the first 10 months of 2021, the growth rate of clothing retail volume of large retail enterprises was 2.1 percentage points lower than the growth rate of retail sales. From the perspective of the growth rate of the two compared with the same period in 2019, the recovery degree of clothing retail volume is still lower than the retail sales, which reflects that the clothing consumption of large retail enterprises has separated from the quantity demand and entered the stage of quality demand.

Chart 9: growth rate of clothing retail volume of national key large retail enterprises in the first 10 months of 2010-2021

China Business Information Center

Chart 10: year on year growth rate of clothing retail volume of key large retail enterprises in China in 2020 and the first 10 months of 2021

Data source: China National Business Information Center

6. The market competition of some clothing categories of national key large retail enterprises has been improved

With the recovery of offline consumption, the increase of brand management, the increase of new hot category brands and new products, and the intensification of retail channel competition, the degree of market competition of clothing brands has increased, and the market concentration of some clothing categories of key large retail enterprises mainly composed of general merchandise has decreased compared with that of last year. Among them, the market share of T-shirts, women's wear, woolen sweaters, women's underwear, sportswear and down jacket decreased, the market concentration of men's suits and men's shirts increased by more than 1 percentage point, while the market concentration of jacket, thermal underwear, cashmere sweater, children's wear and leather clothing increased.

Chart 11: the comprehensive market share of top ten brands of clothing categories of national key large retail enterprises in October 2020 and October 2021

Data source: China National Business Information Center

1. Online physical consumption has entered the rational development stage of pursuing quality and connotation

According to the "14th five year" e-commerce development plan, China's e-commerce has entered a new development stage of standardized development, coordinated development, green development and open development. China's e-commerce will comprehensively practice the new development concept, lead consumption upgrading and cultivate high-quality digital life. Under the guidance of planning, online consumption has entered the stage of rational development in pursuit of quality and connotation. In the first 10 months of 2021, the online retail sales of physical goods reached 8497.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%. The growth rate slowed down by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous year, with an average growth of 15.3% in two years, accounting for 23.7% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods, which decreased by 1.2 percentage points compared with 2020.

Chart 12: growth of online retail sales of physical goods in the first 10 months of 2015-2021

Source: National Bureau of statistics

2. "Wear" online sales achieved rapid growth

In the first 10 months of 2021, online retail sales of "wear" goods increased by 14.1% year-on-year, 8.3 percentage points faster than that in 2020. Online retail sales of "use" goods increased by 14.3% year-on-year, 1.9% slower than that in 2020. Online retail sales of "eating" goods increased by 19% year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed down by 11.6% compared with that in 2020. If the influence of growth base is deducted, the average growth rate of "wear" goods in the first 10 months is 9.7%, which is 5.6 percentage points lower than the average growth rate of online retail sales of physical goods.

Chart 13: growth rate of retail sales of online food, clothing and consumer goods in the first 10 months of 2015-2021

Source: National Bureau of statistics

From August to October, the year-on-year growth rate of clothing retail sales above the quota was negative continuously

Since August, the sporadic occurrence of local epidemics, the increase of extreme weather events, the increased expectation of price rise, and the fall of automobile consumption have brought certain downward pressure to the consumption growth. The total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 0.9%, 2.5% and 1.9% respectively from August to October, which was significantly slower than that of 10.1% in May, 9.8% in June and 6.4% in July. Consumer behavior tends to be cautious. With the same trend as the consumer goods market, since August, with the increase of the growth base in the same period, the retail sales of clothing above the quota have been in negative growth for three consecutive months.

Chart 14: year on year growth rate of retail sales of clothing commodities above quota from January 2020 to October 2021

Source: National Bureau of statistics

2. Clothing sales of key large retail enterprises are under great downward pressure

Since June, the clothing retail volume of key large-scale retail enterprises has been continuously negative growth, and the decline rate has been enlarged. The decline rate from August to October is double-digit. The growth rate of clothing retail sales slowed to single digit in July, and the growth was negative from August to October.

Chart 15: clothing retail growth rate of national key large retail enterprises from January 2020 to October 2021

Data source: China National Business Information Center

3. The growth rate of online "wear" retail sales slowed down

From January to October, the retail sales of online "wear" goods increased by 14.1%, and the growth rate slowed down by 1.5 percentage points compared with that from January to September.

Chart 16: growth rate of online "wear" retail sales from January 2020 to October 2021

Source: National Bureau of statistics Author: