Cotton Prices Fell By 15%&Nbsp In The Past 2 Weeks; Experts Analyzed Inflation And Plunge.

It has been skyrocketing since mid September. cotton Prices suddenly changed in mid November, turning to a straight line. In November 26th, China's cotton price index (grade 328 cotton) was 26681 yuan / ton, compared with the historical high level of 31302 yuan / ton in November 11th, it has dropped 4621 yuan / ton, or 14.76%. On November 11th and 12, cotton futures prices continued to fall for two consecutive days. futures Prices continued to fall. In November 25th, the Zhengzhou commodity exchange (CZCE) Cotton Futures (1105 main contract) closed at a price of 25270 yuan / ton, compared with the highest price of 33720 yuan / ton in November 10th, has dropped 25.06%. According to the national development and Reform Commission's monitoring of domestic commodity futures trading prices, domestic commodity prices have dropped sharply since November 12th. Cotton declined the most.

Recently, our reporter on the recent cotton market price changes and cotton prices sharply. Fall Interviewed Xu Wenying, vice chairman of China Textile Industry Association and honorary president of China Cotton Textile Industry Association.

Since November 12th, cotton prices have dropped sharply, and now the drop is nearly 15%. Cotton futures prices have fallen by more than 25%. What do you think is the main reason for this cotton price drop?

Xu Wenying: the decline of cotton prices is the revised regression after the excessive speculation in the pre market. Earlier, soaring cotton prices brought huge market risks. This rise is not driven by rigid demand, and it will fall back from the fundamentals of supply and demand.

In addition, the impact of national macroeconomic regulation and control measures is also an important factor. On the one hand, the central bank continued to raise the deposit reserve ratio and raise interest rates, resulting in a strong contraction of liquidity expectations. The national monetary policy will be moderately tight. On the other hand, in November 8th, the seven departments of the national development and Reform Commission issued urgent notices, put forward six measures to maintain the order of the cotton market and stabilize the market price of the cotton market. On the 17 day, the Executive Council of the State Council also proposed increasing the external spanport capacity of the new territories cotton, banning the acquisition of unlicensed and unlicensed cotton processing, strengthening the supervision of agricultural futures and electronic trading market, restraining excessive speculation and eliminating illegal spanactions. The fall in cotton prices is also expected by the market.

Since September this year, cotton prices have seen a very large fluctuation. How do you view the current cotton market?

Xu Wenying: in January 4th this year, China's cotton price index (grade 328 cotton) was 14879 yuan / ton, reaching the highest level of 31302 yuan / ton in November 11th, or 110.3%. It is worth noting that international cotton prices have also risen all the way. The Cotlook A index once reached a record high of 172.4 cents a pound, and international cotton prices have risen more than domestic cotton prices.

Analysis of the current cotton market situation, first of all, we need to analyze the reasons for the rise in cotton prices.

Thanks to the sustained recovery of the global economy, the recovery of the international market demand, the positive macroeconomic improvement in China's domestic market and the continued prosperity of the domestic demand market, the growth rate of production and marketing of China's cotton textile industry is at a high level in recent years. In the 1~10 months of this year, gross domestic yarn output was 22 million 375 thousand and 300 tons, an increase of 15.50% over the same period last year. Among them, the cumulative output of cotton yarn was 17 million 70 thousand and 500 tons, an increase of 14.20% over the same period last year. The whole year yarn production is expected to reach 27 million tons. According to the ratio of 50% cotton, 13 million 500 thousand tons of cotton are needed. Affected by weather factors, the domestic cotton production decreased and quality decreased in the previous year, and the output was less than 7 million tons. The gap between them should be made up with imported cotton. This year's cotton import quota is 3 million 600 thousand tons. Because of the late import quota this year, only 2 million 150 thousand tons of cotton were imported as of September. There is a gap of 3 million ~400 million tons of cotton supply throughout the year. From a global perspective, in August, Pakistan was flooded with cotton production. India, the main cotton producing country, introduced restrictions on cotton exports in April this year.

It is precisely to see the contradiction between supply and demand of cotton, a large number of hot money to participate in the cotton speculation, and promote the soaring cotton prices. This year, the state has increased the regulation and control of real estate, and many real estate funds have turned to the agricultural products market. The adverse weather in China's cotton producing areas has delayed the listing time of new cotton. Due to the tighter supply and demand situation of cotton, cotton has become a popular hot pursuit product. Hot money has poured in, hoarding and malicious speculation, causing cotton prices to skyrocket. The top ten buyers of cotton futures market are not textile enterprises, which fully illustrates this point.

In order to ease the shortage of new cotton market due to weather factors, the relevant departments of the state have launched 1 million tons of national cotton reserves through auction. However, due to the large demand and small supply, the auction did not have the highest price. The dumping did not achieve the purpose of stabilizing cotton prices, but led cotton prices up. In addition, the impeding of Sinospan cotton's foreign trade has also been a factor in the rise in cotton prices this year.

What is the impact of this abnormal cotton price this year on cotton textile enterprises?

Xu Wenying: unlike previous years, the increase in international cotton prices this year exceeded domestic cotton prices, and the international cotton prices were basically the same as domestic cotton prices. Therefore, with the rapid rise of cotton prices, the price of cotton yarn has increased rapidly. At a certain stage, the price of cotton yarn has gone up even more than the increase in cotton prices. This makes yarn links also exist speculation phenomenon, some non textile enterprises began to hoarse speculation cotton yarn. The rise in cotton yarn prices in turn drives cotton prices up. This interferes with the normal production and operation of textile enterprises. The high cotton prices caused some cash flow difficulties in some textile enterprises. Cotton prices rose too fast to make textile prices and cotton prices rise at a different pace. The instability of cotton prices caused the textile enterprises not to dare to quote, afraid to take the large single long list, and seriously affected the normal production and operation of textile enterprises.

As domestic cotton prices fell for a long time, spinning enterprises reacted strongly. Recently, with the continuous weakening of cotton prices, the cotton market wait-and-see sentiment has increased, resulting in a decline in volume. Those hoarding cotton yarn companies panic and are eager to reduce their shipments. Because of the high price cotton used before, yarn prices may drop, and spinning enterprises may suffer large losses. The huge fluctuation of cotton price implies a great market risk. Textile enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, will be greatly affected.

Cotton prices remain stable, which is a common aspiration of textile enterprises. What measures do you think should be taken to keep the cotton market stable?

Xu Wenying: cotton prices have gone up and down, which will hurt the textile enterprises, cotton processing enterprises and cotton growers. The cotton market will maintain a relatively reasonable high price and smooth operation, which will benefit all parties.

To maintain the stability of the cotton market, we hope that the relevant departments of the state should first crack down on hype behavior, crack down on middle speculators and maintain the stability of the spot market through regulation and regulation of the futures market.

Secondly, in the long run, efforts should be made to solve the contradiction between supply and demand of cotton. In order to make better use of global cotton resources, domestic cotton prices should be in line with international cotton prices. Cotton import quotas should be issued in one lump sum, early and frequent. I hope that the sliding rate can be adjusted or fixed tax rate is adjusted.