Chen Sijin: Relying On The Federal Reserve To Rescue The Market Is Like Expecting A Donkey To Fly.
Chongqing times: recent global
equity market
, commodities, heavy metals and even gold are all large.
Fall
What are the main reasons?
Chen Sijin: the main reason is the failure of the Federal Reserve to launch the QE3. There is no hope of saving the market. The economic crisis in the United States will aggravate, and the deepening of the European debt crisis may even lead to the break-up of the eurozone, all of which will naturally be reflected in the market.
Chongqing times:
Federal Reserve
Why not launch QE3?
Chen Sijin: as I have analyzed before, QE3 is unlikely to be launched. It is useless. The United States has already been resistant to loose money. Just like Japan, the currency is no longer easy to use. More importantly, QE3 has been opposed by the United Democrats and Republicans, and has risen from the economic level to the political level.
Because there is no great power that can be maintained under the premise of a weak currency, the depreciation of the US dollar in these years is only a temporary solution, and if the US dollar continues to depreciate, it will affect the status of the United States in the world.
Chongqing times: isn't that hidden gold in troubled times?
How did gold price fall, and the US dollar went up?
What is the reasonable price of gold?
Chen Sijin: This is because the Fed does not push QE3, that is, not to continue monetary easing. The dollar has become stronger. The foundation of the so-called gold hedging does not exist. This is also the case. The US dollar debt has become the last refuge. That is what I have always said, even if the global ship sinks, the United States will eventually sink.
In addition, from a technical point of view, although the total amount of gold in the world is quite large, it also increases at an annual rate of more than 2%. However, most of the reserves in central banks of the world do not really circulate in the market, so that the concentration of speculative capital can rapidly raise the price of gold, and it is easy for the scattered investors to buy more.
wave
。
Chongqing times: some experts say that the so-called twists (twist operation) launched by the Fed is actually a variant of QE3. What do you think?
Can this measure help to save the market?
How can Europe and the United States get out of the debt crisis?
Chen Sijin: wrong!
It's not a variant. It's two different things.
QE3 is the so-called money printing, which will further raise the Federal Reserve's liabilities, while twists only maintains low interest rates, and this time the Fed has not even dropped the benchmark interest rate.
The Fed itself is the initiator of the economic crisis, hoping that they can "save the market" as if they expect the donkey to fly.
How can Europe and the United States get out of the debt crisis?
In fact, simple is also very simple, as long as we return to common sense.
For example, what is wrong with your family?
We must only increase revenue and reduce expenditure, open source, make efforts to make more money, economize on labour, thrift and thrift, and return money as soon as possible.
Many countries in Europe and the United States are doing the opposite. The more debt they borrow, the more they borrow, so that they can not extricate themselves, and encourage consumption.
Recently, Obama proposed a massive deficit reduction plan, and announced that it would increase taxes on the rich and cut defense spending.
He said: "this will be the largest reduction of expenditure in the history of the United States. Everyone must pay a fair share, including the rich and large companies. The new plan will reduce the deficit by about 4 trillion and 400 billion dollars and increase taxes by 1 trillion and 500 billion dollars.
On the one hand, on the one hand, cutting the expenditure on open source sounds reliable, but I don't know whether the US Congress can pass it.
Chongqing times: some economists predict that China may launch the second round of large-scale stimulus policies. What do you think?
Chen Sijin: Keynes's unreliability has become more and more obvious. I hope that China can live in hold, do not step in Europe and the United States!
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