Investment Strategy Of Textile And Garment Industry In The Fourth Quarter

　　 Textile manufacturing industry: export is expected to maintain 20% + Growth rate , optimistic about small molecule industry leader

We have increased the growth rate of textile and garment exports to 20% - 25%. The logical support of the increase in the growth rate forecast comes from the following points: 1. The textile and clothing industry has a high degree of dependence on exports, which is greatly affected by the overall export of China's economy. At present, the predicted value of the overall export growth rate that is expected by the market is above 20%; 2、 Empirical data show that since 2002, the export value of textile and garment industry accounted for more than 25% in the fourth quarter. Our scenario hypothesis results show that the possibility of industry export growth below 20% in 2011 is small; 3、 Great changes have taken place in the regional structure of export, and the proportion of emerging markets has increased by more than 40%. We believe that the gross profit rate of the leading companies in cotton seed industry will be a low point in the third quarter, and it is expected to pick up in the fourth quarter. In the fourth quarter, it can intervene in Lutai a, Huafu sefang, and Weixing shares with accelerated performance growth in 2012.

　　 Brand clothing sub industry: no worries about fundamentals, adjustment It's the time to buy

Judging from the current valuation, men's wear is basically reasonable, and the valuation level of home textiles is slightly higher than the historical average. We believe that the growth of brand clothing performance is certain, such as men's wear, home textile and outdoor and other sub industries still maintain a high growth rate, some stocks in 2012 order meeting data show strong growth. We believe that high-quality brand clothing stock does not have the profit forecast to reduce the space. In addition, from the overall market environment, the investment sentiment is pessimistic and the style is cautious. Stable growth of brand clothing stock is expected to enjoy valuation premium. Fourth quarter can firmly hold high-quality brand clothing stocks.

On the whole, we believe that the fundamentals of the brand clothing sub industry are worry free, and adjustment is the time to buy.

The recommended order is: seven wolves Mengjie home textile Luo Lai home textile, fuana, jiumuwang and baoxiniao pay attention to the transformation of Dayang Chuangshi.

　　 Risk tips

1. The recovery of the European and American economies has been more than expected; 2. The growth rate of domestic consumption fluctuated greatly.