Two Years' First And Second Drop In Import And Export In January

The trade surplus reached 27 billion 280 million US dollars in January as imports fell far more than exports.

It is worth noting that the overall decline of this decline is that all trade partners, all traditional export provinces, general trade and processing trade are all on the decline.

This is the worst month for China's import and export growth since the financial crisis. It is also the first time that imports and exports have suffered negative growth for the first time in the past two years.

However, most market participants do not think this is a long-term trend. The Spring Festival factor is one of the reasons for this negative growth.

They believe that there may be a rebound in import and export data in February, but the growth rate of exports in the first half of this year may hardly exceed single digit growth.

IHS Global Insight economist Alistair Thornton (Alistair Thornton) and Ren Xianfang told the first Financial Daily reporter that the situation in 2012 should be much better than that in 2009, so the data of such negative growth is only caused by the Spring Festival factor, which is short term. Therefore, by February, there will be a big rebound in import and export.

Lu Zheng commissar, chief economist of Industrial Bank, told reporters that such negative growth will not last. It is estimated that the growth rate of imports and exports in February will rebound to more than 15% in the year to year.

On the other hand, the rapid decline in imports also seems to indicate signs of shrinking domestic demand. The decline in imports related to processing trade indicates the possibility of further decline in exports in the future.

On the day before, Chen Deming, Minister of Commerce of China, pointed out in a written reply to Bloomberg news that exports in January "can not make us optimistic", and is expected to suffer negative growth due to the Chinese New Year and other factors.

"China's trading enterprises, especially small and micro enterprises, have begun to bear more and more pressure."

Alistair Thornton and Ren Xianfang pointed out that, compared with exports, the decline of imports is more noteworthy, because even considering the Spring Festival factor, a year-on-year decline of 15% is also too large, which may indicate an extremely shrinking domestic demand, because investment downturn and drag the economic activity.

They predict that China's export growth in the 2012 year will be about half of last year's 20%.

Lu commissar also told our reporter that after February, China's import and export to return to the high level of growth in the past will be very difficult.

"In the first half of the year, exports will maintain a single digit growth."

He said.

Another topic related to import and export is the recent trend of RMB exchange rate.

Lu commissar believes that the current trend of export slump is a good opportunity for the effective exchange rate of RMB to be strong. In the long run, the fundamental solution is to establish a flexible exchange rate system which is flexible and reflect market choice. The current exchange rate regime is criticized abroad, and the pressure on domestic export enterprises should be accelerated.

Lu said: "the dollar is still in a range of shocks, which is a good opportunity for us to reform the exchange rate system, because with the gradual improvement of the US economic data, this opportunity window has become shorter and shorter."

Major country (region) total value of imports and exports in January 2012

Unit: 100 million US dollars.

Country (region) gross exports and imports

2726 1499.4 1226.6

EU 426.8 282.3 144.5

The United States 354.6 266 88.6

ASEAN 258.9 135 123.9

Japan 227.3 122.7 104.6

Australia 94.1 31 63.1

Russia 71.6 32 39.6

Brazil 63.4 26.4 37