USDA Domestic Cotton: Cotton Demand And Inventory Adjusted

In the United States Department of agriculture, July.

In the supply and demand report, the US cotton output forecast in 2012 was maintained at 17 million bales, which is expected to increase by 1 million 400 thousand packets compared with 2011.

Despite the decrease in planting area reported in June, the abandonment of area and unit yield have been adjusted from the present situation, so the output remains unchanged.

Although some areas of cotton planting belt still suffer drought this year, these areas have improved greatly compared with the situation in 2011.

Abandoning the average area and unit yield based on 2009-11 years and regional weighting; however, the area of harvest was further adjusted, including the expected abandonment rate of 30% in the southwestern region.

According to the June acreage report, American producers said they had planted or planned to grow about 12600000 acres of cotton in 2012, a 4% decrease compared with the March intention report, a 14% decrease compared with 2011.

Although the planting area is less than last year, the harvest area is expected to increase by 10% to 10 million 400 thousand acres.

Compared with the previous year, the improvement of soil business conditions and the improvement of cotton growth rate in the southwest region are expected to be much lower than that in 2011. In 2011, the planting area in this area decreased by more than 60% compared with the intended area.

Nationwide, the abandonment rate in 2012 is estimated at 18% (2 million 200 thousand acres), which is higher than the long-term average abandonment rate of 13%.

Last year the abandonment rate hit a 36% high (5 million 300 thousand acres), after which the highest abandonment rate was 27% in 1933.

In 2012, the area of Upland Cotton in various areas of cotton planting belt is expected to decrease, ranging from 11% to 22%, because higher competition price of crops lure farmers to reduce cotton area.

The area in the southwest is about 7 million 200 thousand acres (11% less); in 2012, the area abandonment was expected to be again higher than the average abandonment rate.

In the southeastern and delta regions, the area is estimated to be approximately 2 million 700 thousand acres (22%), 2 million 100 thousand acres (13%).

In the west, the area of upland cotton is expected to be reduced by 20% to 400000 acres compared with 2011. In addition, the area of extra long staple cotton (most grown in the West) is estimated at 235000 acres, which is 23% lower than that in 2011.

2012 us

Growth continued to exceed last year's and 5 year average.

As of July 8th, 70% of cotton was buds, compared with 56% in last year, and 64% in 5 years.

Similarly, as early as the beginning of July, the fruit set rate reached 23%, compared to 18% in 2011 and 19% in 2007-11 years.

At the same time, the growth of cotton in the United States at the beginning of last year was similar to that of the same period last year, which is similar to the average growth rate of 5 years.

As of July 8th, 44% of cotton fields in the United States were rated "good" or "excellent", compared with 28% last year, while only 18% were rated "poor" or "very poor", compared with 42% in 2011.

The US yield is currently estimated at 785 lbs / acre, slightly below last year's estimated yield per unit area.

In August, the National Agricultural Statistics Bureau of the United States Department of agriculture will first release the results of its 2012 cotton yield survey.

Cotton demand and inventory adjusted

Due to the coming of 2012/13, this month slightly adjusted the demand for next year. The total demand for 2012/13 cotton in the United States is estimated to be 15 million 500 thousand packs, which is 600000 packs higher than the latest 2011/12 forecast.

2012/13 US stocks increased by 300000 bales this month as foreign import demand is expected to rise, supporting exports to reach 12 million 100 thousand bales.

2012/13 demand for textile mills in the United States dropped slightly to 3 million 400 thousand packs, reflecting the recent report on the start up of textile mills. This month's report lowered the estimate for 2011/12.

Although the global cotton trade in 2012/13 is expected to shrink, the US market share is expected to be higher than 2011/12.

2012/13 the US export volume is expected to be larger, and the planting area of some major cotton producing countries will be reduced and the intensity of competition will be reduced.

According to the current forecast, the United States accounts for the world.

The proportion is expected to be 32%, compared with 27% last year and 39% in 2010/11.

According to the latest supply and demand forecast, 2012/13 inventory is expected to increase for second consecutive years, from 3 million 300 thousand at the beginning of August 1st to 4 million 800 thousand at the end of the year.

Just as the actual stock in 2012/13 will increase, the inventory to consumption ratio is also expected to increase from 22% in 2011/12 to 31% in 2012/13, the highest rate in four years.

In 2012/13, the price of the upland cotton farm is estimated to be between 60-80 cents / pound, compared with 91 cents in 2011/12 and 81.5 cents in 2010/11.