Production Reduction And Storage Play A Role Together, And Cotton Prices Rise Slowly

The latest Federal Reserve interest rate meeting did not launch QE3, indicating that the US economy has not further deteriorated. In addition, under the influence of global bad weather, crop yields have been reduced to varying degrees. Therefore, under the combined effect of expected production reduction and storage, Cotton price Into the slow rising market. Recently, under the influence of rumors of dumping and stockpiling in China, cotton fell in response. With the approaching of September's purchase and storage, the market is about to enter the alternate period of new and old cotton, and the price difference between internal and external markets is expanding.

　 Global weather affects cotton production

Recently, El Ni ñ o has had a great impact on crop growth. The latest report of the United States Department of Agriculture shows that the good growth rate of American cotton has dropped. On August 1, the U.S. Department of Agriculture issued the latest statement. Up to now, in the 2012 crop year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has identified 1584 counties in 32 states as disaster areas, of which 1452 counties are drought affected areas. The scope of drought impact continues to expand. The area affected by moderate and above drought in the United States has expanded to two-thirds, which is also the main factor affecting cotton growth. According to historical rules, dry and hot weather may continue to November.

In addition, the world's largest Cotton producing country India has also been affected by the weather recently. Due to late monsoon rains and reduced rainfall, nearly 1/3 of India may suffer from drought. In recent years, the global consumption of Indian cotton has increased significantly, which is why Indian cotton export policies are always changing. The bad weather will greatly affect India's cotton production, and the cotton supply to the international market will also be greatly reduced. Although the global consumption is weak at this stage, the global rigid demand still exists. Therefore, the reduction of Indian cotton production will make the global supply tight.

Rumors of dumping and storage have limited impact

Recently, the spot market has not been affected by the dumping of reserves, and the spot price has maintained a steady upward trend. The author believes that the rumors of dumping reserves are not groundless, but should be treated rationally. At present, 3.13 million tons of cotton collected and stored in 2011 are still stored in the national storage warehouse, and whether there is a demand for rotating warehouses remains to be verified by the market. Judging from the national policy keynote, this year's cotton is still purchased and stored at an unlimited price of 20400 yuan/ton. The market has no clear answer to whether the national reserve has enough storage capacity. Therefore, the market rumors about dumping storage will become clearer as the opening day of the new year's collection and storage is approaching. However, until the news is confirmed, the impact of this topic on the market will not last too long, and ultimately depends on whether the actual supply and demand support cotton prices.

　 Commercial inventory reduction supports cotton price

According to the provincial sampling survey of cotton processing enterprises, warehousing and logistics enterprises and circulation traders, by the end of June, the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide had reached 1.73 million tons (including foreign cotton and cotton entering circulation, excluding national storage cotton). Apart from foreign cotton, there is not much local cotton available in the mainland.

Commercial inventory of cotton

According to the survey conducted by China Cotton Information Network, since June, due to the limited number of import quotas, some cotton using enterprises have begun to consider purchasing cotton at the bottom, and their willingness to purchase has increased slightly. By the end of July, the daily shipment volume of Xinjiang cotton had increased to 320-330 vehicles, accelerating the shipment speed. At the end of July, the rapid decline caused by the rumor of selling and storing was immediately digested by the market, and the market rebounded rapidly. It can be seen that in the process of rapid price decline, the purchase intention of enterprises is still relatively strong. With the gradual improvement of demand in August and September, and the continuous reduction of commercial inventory, the situation of cotton shortage in real estate is likely to reappear, which will alleviate the sluggish demand to a certain extent, thus supporting cotton prices in the medium and long term.

To sum up, under the background of the slow recovery of the U.S. economy, the hot and dry weather is still continuing, and the continuous reduction of domestic commercial inventory shows that the traditional peak season effect is gradually emerging. Therefore, in the medium and long term, cotton will rise slowly. at present cotton In the bottom of the market, waiting for market guidance.