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Cotton Prices Are Limited In Cotton Market In 2013.

2013/1/15 13:31:00 51

for this year's < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp > > cotton market < /a >, policy change is the focus of attention.

But in the final analysis, price is the game between demand and output, and supply and demand is the basic factor determining the future cotton price.

In P 2012/2013, the supply of domestic and international cotton market is excessive. It is predicted that the reduction of cotton planting efficiency will result in the continuous reduction of the global cotton planting area in 2013/2014 and support for the cotton price in the new year.

On the other hand, the export of cotton < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" target= "_blank" > textile > /a > is blocked, the amount of cotton used in enterprises has been greatly reduced, the supply of spot stock of cotton is adequate, and the ratio of domestic and international cotton consumption to inventory is at a high level of nearly five years.

Two factors will limit cotton prices up and down.

this year cotton planting intention area is reduced .

although the price of cotton purchase and storage has been raised in 2012, cotton farmers have been actively selling, but planting intentions survey shows that the cotton planting intention area is still decreasing this year.

The national cotton market monitoring system launched a nationwide survey of cotton planting area in late November 2012. The results showed that the average cotton planting area in China was 67 million 515 thousand mu, a decrease of 4 million 272 thousand mu compared with the same period last year, with a decrease of 6%.

Shandong, Anhui, Jiangsu and other places showed that the cotton planting area in 2013 will still decrease significantly, with a reduction of around 10%.

The international cotton advisory board (ICAC) predicts that China's cotton planting area will be reduced by 11% in 2013/2014.

Less than P, the cotton farmers' income has been reduced due to the disaster. The problem of time wasting and labor shortage in cotton cultivation is difficult to solve. More young people choose to go out to work, and the income of cotton is lower than that of grain and other crops, and other factors will continue to affect the enthusiasm of cotton farmers.

the implementation of the temporary purchase and storage policy for two consecutive years has effectively protected the interests of cotton farmers.

However, the heavy rain in August of 2012 brought disaster to Shandong, Hebei, Tianjin and other places. Local cotton production and quality were reduced. Although the purchase price was higher than that of last year, the cotton farmers affected by the disaster were still unable to get enough benefits, and the planting intention decreased.

In recent years, cotton fields in the the Yellow River River Basin have experienced extreme weather such as heavy rain or continuous rain during the cotton growing season, and cotton yield and quality have declined.

Cotton prices fluctuate, income is unstable, and production cuts have hurt farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting.

survey shows that in some cotton areas, the yield of other crops is significantly higher than that of cotton, causing farmers to turn to other crops.

With the development of urban and rural integration, more and more young people choose to go out to work.

Plus cotton growth cycle is long, late management hard, time-consuming labor, and other crops mechanization degree is relatively high, attractive to farmers, cotton planting area reduced accordingly.

P > the global supply of cotton is still surplus /p >

> according to the global cotton supply and demand forecast released in November 2012, released by the US Department of agriculture (USDA), the world's initial cotton inventories were 15 million 60 thousand tons, 25 million 450 thousand tons of output, 23 million 180 thousand tons of consumption, and 17 million 340 thousand tons of inventory at the end of this year.

The global 2012/2013 inventory consumption ratio is 74.79%.

Among them, the United States produced 3 million 760 thousand tons of cotton this year, 740 thousand tons of consumption and 1 million 180 thousand tons of inventory at the end of the year.

The US 2012/2013 inventory consumption ratio is 35.54%.

India's cotton output, consumption and stock in the current year are 5 million 550 thousand tons, 4 million 790 thousand tons and 1 million 900 thousand tons respectively.

In 2012/2013, the global supply of cotton remained excessive.

The latest global cotton supply and demand forecast report released by the US Department of agriculture (USDA) further raised global cotton production on the basis of this.

according to the actual planting area reported by the US Department of agriculture (USDA) in the US cotton 2012/2013, the actual planting area of the United States cotton in 2012 was about 12 million 635 thousand acres, a decrease of 14% over the same period last year.

The cotton planting benefit is low, and the annual decrease of US cotton acreage is supporting the cotton price.

cotton prices continue to decline in 2012/2013, while other crops such as corn, soybeans and wheat continue to rise.

The international cotton advisory board (ICAC) predicts that the new sown area in 2013/2014 will be reduced by 9% to 31 million 500 thousand hectares compared to the same period last year, and the output will be reduced by 11% from last year to 23 million 200 thousand tons.

This is the second consecutive year of decline in production, the lowest in nearly four years.

In P > 2013/2014, the largest reduction in cotton planting area was in the United States and Turkey, which decreased by 26% and 30% respectively compared with the same period last year. China reduced 11%, Pakistan reduced 9%, Central Asia reduced 13%, West Africa reduced 10%, and with the increase of cotton yield per unit area in India, although the area decreased, the total output decreased only slightly, and the total output of Australia decreased by 14%.

In the next few months, cotton planting intentions in different countries may change.

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downstream demand is still not optimistic.

2012, China's cotton textile import and export market is characterized by low export and strong import demand.

In the first three quarters of 2012, the export volume of China's cotton textiles was 18 billion 640 million US dollars, down 6% from the same period last year, of which cotton exports accounted for about 50%, and exports amounted to US $9 billion 150 million, down 6.1% from the same period last year. The import volume of cotton textiles was 5 billion 340 million US dollars, up 24.9% over the same period last year, and maintained a relatively fast growth rate. Cotton yarn imports amounted to 3 billion 570 million US dollars, an increase of 46% over the same period last year, accounting for 67% of total imports.

from the first three quarters of 2012, the price trend of cotton textiles is affected by the overall downward trend of raw material prices at home and abroad. The prices of cotton and cotton fabrics are negative growth, especially in the case of poor export environment. Compared with the previous year, the export volume of cotton textiles in China has dropped considerably. In terms of imports, China's imports of cotton yarn and cotton fabrics have increased to varying degrees compared with the previous year under the strong support of imports.

the difference between cotton prices at home and abroad is a major reason for the growing demand for imported cotton and cotton textiles and the blocked exports.

In the first three quarters, the export volume of China's cotton bedding products, < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" target= "_blank" > clothing < /a > also decreased to varying degrees, down by 8.8% and 5% respectively.

Export profits are still not yet apparent. International market demand is still unclear. In the coming period, the export resistance of China's cotton textiles and downstream cotton products is still relatively large.

with the increase of labor costs and other factors, China's textile production costs are higher than those of India and Pakistan.

Even if the European and American economies recovered in 2013, China's textile export orders could not increase significantly.

at the same time, domestic consumption growth is weak.

In 2012, the national quota of 1~11 month was retail sales of enterprises (units), clothing < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" target= "_blank" > shoes < /a > hat and knitwear retail sales increased by 18.2% compared to the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped by 6.9 percentage points.

The amount of cotton used in textile enterprises has been greatly reduced. According to the survey, the relevant institutions estimate that the monthly high level of textile cotton consumption per month is maintained at 500 thousand ~60 tons, far below the 1 million tons of textile production expansion period, and about 800 thousand tons of textile cotton in previous years.

Another situation is that the raw materials and finished products of enterprises are in a low inventory state, and there is no need for active replenishment.

although the macroeconomic and market confidence of enterprises has been restored in 2013, the order situation is hard to say.

The downturn in cotton demand will inhibit the increase of < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > cotton price < /a >.