The Slowdown Of China's Consumption Growth In September

After hitting a new high in the past month, China's consumption growth slowed down again in September. Experts here say that the real growth rate of residents' income declines and other factors make the recovery of consumption still uncertain.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics 18, in the first three quarters of this year, the total retail sales of social consumer goods totaled 168817 billion yuan (the same below), a 11.3% increase in real terms after deducting price factors, a 0.1 percentage point drop from the first half of the year. Especially in September, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 11.2% in real terms, down 0.4 percentage points from August.

"I think this change has a lot to do with the base. The contrast base has a certain impact on the growth rate this year". Slowdown in consumption growth The reason for this is that the National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Sheng Lai Yun made the above judgments.

However, in some experts' view, the insufficient willingness to spend the purse is a major reason for the slowdown in consumption growth.

Data show that in the first three quarters, the per capita disposable income of urban residents in China actually increased by only 6.8%, not only significantly lower than the 9.8% growth rate of the same period last year, but also "running out" in the same period of 7.7% GDP growth and 8.6% of the national fiscal revenue growth.

"In the first three quarters, the growth rate of residents' income dropped three points over last year, which is very big, and will have a strong constraint on the next consumption." Liu Yuanchun, vice president of the school of economics of Renmin University of China, reminded reporters in an interview.

In addition, experts believe that the central government's efforts to practise austerity and other policies are also affecting consumption.

"The main force of consumption in the second half is holiday economy and conference. Economics The expansion of these spending will be strongly constrained by the policy, "Liu Yuanchun predicted. China's consumption growth was further restricted in the four quarter.

In the view of Zhou Jingtong, a senior analyst at Bank of China, the rising prices, especially the price of water and gas oil and other resource goods, should not be overlooked.

However, Zhao Xijun, vice president of the school of Finance and finance of Renmin University of China, pointed out that the change of single month data is not enough to support the trend judgment, and consumption growth is basically stable in general. Zhou Jingtong also believes that there is a normal increase in monthly recovery from earlier contraction.

Although the growth rate of consumption of high-end food and beverage is falling, Shen Danyang, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce of China, has also analyzed that new consumption hot spots and consumption patterns of new commodity consumption, life service consumption, network consumption and holiday consumption are taking shape. Official expansion of information consumption, consumption of old age, healthy consumption, and consumption policy of tourism and leisure are gradually playing a role.

Future consumer market The situation, Shen Danyang said, "as long as the domestic macro-economy continues to be stable, the consumption promotion policies are advancing smoothly, consumption in the fourth quarter is expected to continue to pick up, and the consumption market will remain stable throughout the year".