Basic Determination Of Cotton "Target Price Direct Subsidy" Policy

< p > at present, the cotton market is basically determined by the "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_q.asp ">" target price ".

After the pilot began in Xinjiang, it began to spread throughout the country.

However, there are still controversies in the details of operation, target price and adoption form.

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< p > for example, some departments suggest that the difference should be 20400 yuan / ton, while some departments suggest 19000 yuan / ton.

But in general, the direct subsidy pilot means subsidizing the farmers and subsidizing the consumers, and at the same time implementing the market mechanism for the price of agricultural products.

With the marketization of cotton prices, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton 4000 yuan / ton is expected to return rationally.

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< p > from the trend of cotton futures, since mid February, futures prices began to fall. Last Friday, the main 1405 contract fell sharply, and the 1409 contract ended in the limit, while the latter dropped two yuan on Thursday and Friday to 1040 yuan / ton.

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"P > P" (Beijing) Cotton Industry Co., Ltd., deputy general manager of a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/pioneer/" > Dong Shuangwei < /a >, the present market performance reflects two kinds of expectations: one is the expectation of policy adjustment.

Including dumping and storage, and the cotton direct subsidy mechanism to be implemented, all are adjusted according to market orientation.

The two is the big price gap at home and abroad, which tends to reduce to a reasonable level after April 1st.

Therefore, although the spot market has not changed much, the futures market, especially the far month contract, has been fully reflected.

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< p > he said that the recent rumors that Xinjiang cotton subsidy per mu is 380 yuan, equivalent to about 3000 yuan per ton.

The futures price will fluctuate on the basis of 16000 yuan per ton, which is consistent with the current forward price.

On the international side, according to the new year's US cotton sliding quasi tax CIF calculation, about 15300 yuan per ton, and the current price difference of zhengmian from 4000-5000 yuan / ton to 1000 to 2000 yuan / ton futures price, and the internal and external prices are gradually integrated.

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< p > he predicts that the future market will play a more decisive role in the game with policy.

The relative low grade cotton in the international market, especially India cotton and the mainstream prices of China's spot market will follow the trend of Zheng cotton and deduce the process of gravity shifting.

As China is the world's largest cotton producer, consumer and importer, the international price will inevitably suffer downward pressure after the direct subsidy is implemented.

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< p > "policy adjustment is the main reason for the recent downward trend of cotton futures."

Huang Junfei, manager of the Yangtze futures research department, said that the recent rumours were 380 yuan per mu, which was roughly 3000-4000 yuan per ton, according to the current Xinjiang yield.

Because the subsidy level is directly related to the cost of lint, which is related to the interests of the upstream and downstream sides of the cotton market, and the positioning of the annual cotton price operation interval is not weaker than the national policy of collecting and throwing the reserve. Therefore, it becomes the focus of domestic cotton market in 2013/2014.

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< p > for the future trend of cotton futures prices, Huang Junfei predicts that in 2013/2014, the domestic cotton market will continue to go inventory to improve supply and demand relationship. It is estimated that the low point of Zheng cotton futures will appear in the two quarter, and then form a solid bottom of the current "bear" market.

On the whole, the tension of contract warehouse has weakened in recent months, and far month contracts have been supported by the mainland's bidding and storage policy rumors. The market is expected to be less than a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > /a >, showing a "near weak and far strong" situation.

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