Cost Support Loosening PTA Strong No Longer

In just over a month, PTA The price of futures nearly 1700 yuan / ton slipped the market. At the same time, PTA spot also dropped from 7580 yuan / ton to 5900 yuan / ton. The ethylene glycol, semifinished polyester chips, staple fibers, POY, DTY and FDY decreased by 1620, 1800, 1500, 1950, 1175, 1200 yuan / ton respectively.

This rapid change is mainly due to the upstream. Raw material Price loosening. According to insiders Qian Tao, due to the expected changes in the international economy, crude oil prices fell sharply from the high point, the current cumulative decline of more than 20%, into the bear market. With the decline in crude oil prices, naphtha prices also showed a marked decline. As of October 10th, the price of naphtha CFR Japan plummeted to $735.25 / barrel, up 25% from the July high.

On the other hand, direct raw materials PX In the three quarter, nearly 5 million tons of new capacity were put into operation. With the landing of PX's new capacity, PX entered an increase in inventory cycle. The ease of supply side led to PX prices falling synchronously with international oil prices.

Theoretically, the fall in cost is a good thing for the PTA market. However, the spot price of PTA also gradually moves down with the cost focus of raw material PX, which also shows from the side that the strong pattern of PTA has been reversed before.

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It is understood that as of press release, zhongyisheng petrochemical and Xiang Lu petrochemical PTA operating rate has also increased to more than 70%, PTA limited production price alliance three parties have violated the original agreement.

In Qian Tao's view, the initial idea should be a profit in the PTA factory, and after a period of time, the price alliance will be disintegrated. At present, though the PTA factory has a considerable profit, it is much better than the loss at the beginning of the year. "It can only be said that the alliance's will is not resolute, and it is in the stage of" fighting for the tiger to hide the skin "and" making the most of the devil. "

At present, after the collapse of the price Union, the mercenary enterprises have no price rise or fall in the case of profit, so there will be no action of "supporting the market" at present. PTA

"Alliance actually has two kinds of characteristics, interest community and" Jianghu loyalty ". PTA industry veteran An Jianhua told the futures Daily reporter that when the alliance was established, it was based on the common role of all parties and the trust foundation was still there, so it was effective. After the September incident, some PTA mainstream factories failed to abide by the covenant and the trust foundation was shattered. Without the foundation of trust, it will be even more difficult to have alliances later.

"Alliances that are maintained only by interests are extremely fragile, and when interests diverge, they are disintegrated, so the alliance is no longer meaningful." An Jianhua believes that at present, the market structure of PTA has changed from alliance to price war, and the PTA industry has begun to usher in a cruel era of survival of the fittest.

In Wang Guangqian's view, affected by the collapse of the industrial alliance, the PTA market may enter the battle of market share in the short term, the pressure of market supply will gradually increase, and the cash flow loss rate of PTA production will also expand rapidly. Once the production of PTA plant is in an unbearable stage, its internal production will take spontaneous actions to stop production. It will not rule out that the PTA plant will still sit at the negotiating table and continue to conclude the possibility of a similar covenant.