Cotton Production In The United States And India

The US Department of Agriculture released the monthly forecast of cotton supply and demand. Compared with last month's forecast, the report lowered the US cotton output, ending inventory and price in 2014/2015. Cotton production in the United States has been cut by 60 thousand tons, to 3 million 540 thousand tons. Affected by the weather in the US cotton region, the report has revised down the yield of cotton in the United States for two consecutive months, but it is a fact that compared with the 2 million 810 thousand cotton production in 2013.

In addition, India surpassed China this year to become the largest. Cotton production China is expected to produce 6 million 750 thousand tons of cotton in India this year. Affected by China's policy, cotton prices of the two leading cotton exporters in the world have been falling. Among them, due to the reduction in export volume to China in recent years and the quality of cotton in India, India cotton has more pressure.

according to India Local media said it would buy about 850 thousand - 1 million 190 thousand tons of cotton covered cotton, and the lowest purchase price of cotton in India was 67 cents / pound, which normally sold and sold in that year, which did not affect the supply of the whole year, but affected the supply stage.

To sum up, at present New cotton The tension in the listing volume has caused the market to worry about the number of registered warehouse receipts. Although there is a policy of purchasing and storage in the peripheral market, we should rationally consider the impact on the market. It is suggested that Zheng cotton should be the main source of high interest.

Related links:

Recently, the US Cotton Corp said in its October report that the Chinese government manages cotton imports through the import quota system, which includes the minimum import volume stipulated by WTO (894 thousand tons or 4 million 100 thousand packages). The imported cotton beyond the quota quota will be subject to a 40% tariff, while the quota issued by the WTO shall be determined by the Chinese government itself.

The Chinese government's own quotas can be divided into two categories: one is "quasi tax quotas", with a tax rate of 5-40%, paying taxes according to the principle of high price, low tax rate, low price and high tax rate, and the other one is "processing trade quotas", which only deal with export processing enterprises.

Understand the difference between China's various cotton import quotas in order to better understand how the Chinese government decides on China's cotton imports. Both the WTO regulations and the quotas allocated by the Chinese government are calculated according to the calendar year.

Therefore, the quotas for each calendar year belong to two cotton harvest years (for example, from the beginning of each year to the end of July, and from the beginning of August to the end of the calendar).

In September 19th, the Chinese government announced that it would not issue any discretionary quotas in 2015. This is an important event in the cotton market, because China's cotton imports have always been an uncertain factor. This decision indicates that China's imports will be restricted to a lower level, which will bring downward pressure on international cotton prices.

Although there will be no additional quota in 2015, the number of quotas that need to be exhausted before January will be unknown in 2014. However, no matter how many quotas left on the market in 2014, it will not be able to significantly change the trend of China's cotton import decline in 2014/15. It also means that global cotton stocks, including China, will set a record, which will lead to further decline in cotton prices in the future.