Analysis Of The Impact Of Interest Rate Cuts On Garment Home Textiles

Here world Clothing and shoes Xiaobian of the network to introduce the textile and clothing industry: interest rate cuts on the home textile plate Limited, good high debt textile stocks.

On the evening of November 21st, the central bank announced that the RMB loans and deposit benchmark rates of financial institutions had been lowered since November 22, 2014; the benchmark lending rates for financial institutions have been reduced by 0.4 percentage points to 5.6%; the one-year deposit benchmark rate has been reduced by 0.25 percentage points to 2.75%; at the same time, the interest rate liberalization reform has been consolidated, and the upper limit of the floating interval of financial institutions' deposit interest rates has been adjusted to 1.2 times that of the benchmark interest rate 1.1 times.

Interest rate cuts have a certain degree of benefit to textile manufacturing companies, and have limited impact on clothing home textiles companies.

The interest rate cuts have different effects on the textile and garment enterprises. In the view of the molecular industry, (1) the textile manufacturing sub industries mainly focus on heavy assets and have a high asset liability ratio (50.14%), and interest rates are reduced to a certain extent. (2) the home textile sub industry enterprises mainly focus on light assets, the cash flow is better, and the asset liability ratio is lower than that of the textile manufacturing sector (47.08%), and the impact of interest rate cuts is relatively limited.

The impact of interest rate reduction is mainly reflected in the decline in financial cost and the company's performance elasticity.

As for the calculation of the impact of interest rate reduction on stocks, we selected the "net profit" index of "14Q3 interest bearing liabilities X0.4%" in 2013, that is, the decline in the financial cost rate to the company's performance elasticity as a measure of interest rate reduction. The results obtained do not mean direct vote recommendation, but it can be used as a reference.

Among them, interest bearing liabilities = short-term loans + notes payable + short-term bonds + long-term loans + bonds payable. The main purpose here is to calculate the elasticity. For the convenience of calculation, we only do the calculation of the unified interest bearing liabilities. There are still many deficiencies in the index: 1) there is no difference between the fixed interest rate liabilities and floating rate liabilities of each company; 2) the net profit in 2013 is compared, and there may be a larger deviation for the companies whose volatility is bigger; 3) the interest rate reduction is one-year loan interest rate, which does not mean that all the liabilities of the term can be reduced.

　 According to estimates, the interest rate reduction / net profit of more than 20% of the textile stocks benefited greatly.

We are right. Spin The interest bearing liabilities of all 76 companies in the garment sector were sorted out, and the "net profit" of "14Q3 (X0.4% of interest bearing /2013)" was calculated accordingly. The conclusion is as follows:

(1) interest rate cut stocks are more than 20%, which are more than 20% of interest expense reduction / net profit ratio, all of which are textile manufacturing stocks Shandong Ruyi (174%), fortune shares (122%), SKYWORTH digital (66%), Changshan shares (52%), Lukang science and Technology (36%), Huafang shares (22%), among which Fortune shares and SKYWORTH figures contain a large number of financial expenses due to the backdoor surge.

(2) interest rate cuts which have certain benefits, namely the decrease in interest expense / net profit ratio, at 10-20%, are still dominated by textile manufacturing stocks, including: Xinye textile, vestal shares, Zhonghe shares, Meyer, Vico, Jiangsu Sanyou and Huafang textiles. Brand clothing stocks include red bean stocks, Busen shares and Saturday, of which Busen shares are mainly due to the increase in financial costs due to backdoor loans. The shares of red bean are due to the high debt real estate business, and Saturday is due to adjustment period and cash flow pressure.

(3) most brands clothing The decrease in interest expense per share / net profit ratio is at 0-5%, and interest rate reduction is limited.