The Situation Of Foreign Trade Is Grim And The RMB Exchange Rate Volatility Has Expanded To 3%.

One side is weak foreign trade data, while the other is the RMB exchange rate that is up and down. According to the industry judgement, the spring offensive of RMB to us dollar exchange rate expansion is coming again.

The foreign trade data released by the General Administration of Customs in January showed that the sluggish imports reflected the weak domestic demand, and the continued increase in surplus further pushed up the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi, thereby inhibiting the growth of exports in turn.

In the final analysis, the situation of foreign trade is grim.

Compared with the first two months of last year, the import and export data in January this year are even weaker.

In March 8, 2014, the foreign trade data released by the General Administration of Customs in the first two months of 2014 showed that the total value of imports and exports was 3 trillion and 870 billion yuan, an increase of 0.9% over the same period last year.

Among them, exports were 1 trillion and 960 billion yuan, down 4.3%; imports were 1 trillion and 910 billion yuan, an increase of 7%; the trade surplus was 55 billion 60 million yuan, narrowing 79.5%.

Shortly after the release of this group of foreign trade data, since March 17, 2014, the central bank has decided to expand the floating rate of RMB to us dollar exchange rate in interbank spot foreign exchange market from 1% to 2%, that is, the daily trading price of RMB to us dollar in the interbank spot foreign exchange market can be up to 2% of the central parity of RMB against the US dollar on the day announced by China foreign exchange exchange center.

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The designated foreign exchange banks provide the difference between the maximum US dollar spot selling price and the minimum spot purchase price on that day. The range of the intermediate price should not exceed that of the current exchange rate from 2% to 3%.

In April 16, 2012, the central bank doubled the floating rate of RMB to us dollar exchange rate in interbank spot foreign exchange market to 1%.

From the last two RMB

In terms of the time of wave adjustment, spring is very important.

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While the Yuan's exchange rate against the US dollar widened last year, the central bank announced that the next step would be to enhance the two-way floating elasticity of the RMB exchange rate and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, according to the development of the foreign exchange market and the economic and financial situation.

To further play the role of market exchange rate, the central bank basically quit normal foreign exchange intervention and established a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand.

Based on the grim foreign trade situation, import and export enterprises are eager to enhance the two-way floating elasticity of RMB exchange rate to avoid risks.

The industry generally expects that after March this year, the RMB exchange rate depreciation pressure will be greatly reduced, which will create conditions for the exchange rate reform and the improvement of monetary policy framework. The moderate expansion of the RMB to us dollar exchange rate volatility is expected to become a trend. The central bank is expected to expand this volatility to 3%.

At this time, the expansion of the RMB to us dollar exchange rate volatility can achieve 3 purposes: first, to enhance the independent regulation of monetary policy; two, to effectively curb the sustained and large-scale movement of short-term capital, and to cut off the expectation of arbitrage arbitrage of foreign capital; and three, to strengthen the ability of export-oriented enterprises to prevent exchange rate risks.

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