Li Wei: There Will Be No Cliff Fall In China'S Economy.

After more than 30 years of rapid catching up and China's pition from rapid growth to rapid growth, has the late development advantage of the catching up process been "lost"?

Li Wei: the advantage of backwardness is still the basic condition for China to maintain a relatively fast development.

Compared with developed countries, China's development gap is still very large. Per capita GDP is only equivalent to 1/8 of the United States, which has a larger backwardness advantage.

For example, although the number of new labor force is declining, the labor force is relatively rich, the cost is relatively low, the space for human capital to increase is relatively large, the labor supply of tertiary education is increasing rapidly, the supply of material production resources is tight, but the capital, knowledge and management experience have increased significantly, and the efficiency and mask of the supply chain have greater advantages. Although the market space has narrowed down, there is still a large demand growth space in infrastructure, manufacturing renewal investment, residents' material and cultural consumption promotion, and so on.

The existence of the advantage of backwardness means that China has the conditions and space to realize the squeeze growth, and it is possible to keep the economic growth rate at the medium and high speed level.

How to understand the new connotation derived from the late development advantage under the new normal?

Li Wei: after entering the new normal, the connotations, supply and demand conditions of the backwardness advantage will change, and the economic structure and growth momentum will also change accordingly.

From the perspective of growth momentum, it mainly depends on the accumulation of material capital to rely more on the accumulation of human capital and knowledge capital, and changes from relying mainly on investment to increasing total factor productivity. From the perspective of comparative advantage, it changes from relying mainly on primary resources to relying more on advanced resources such as technology, capital and management. From the perspective of the role of government, it is directly related to the pformation of economic activities to the cultivation and optimization of economic environment.

These impending changes indicate that the catching up process will move towards a higher stage, which is not only a change from the high-speed growth stage to a middle and high speed growth stage, but also from a quantity expansion phase to a quality enhancement stage.

After entering the new normal, with the downtrend of growth and structural adjustment, the risk of being concealed during the period of high economic growth may be exposed gradually, and the original risk settlement mechanism will not be able to continue.

Li Wei: that's true.

Over the past 30 years, China's rapid economic growth has also accumulated a lot of risks.

For example, the serious problem of overcapacity in manufacturing industry is faced with asset restructuring and structural adjustment, which will inevitably lead to industrial replacement, enterprise deterioration and employee turnover.

In the local government debt, shadow banking, real estate, enterprise interconnection and mutual protection, there will be a lot of risks. "High leverage and bubble" will eventually accumulate in the financial and financial field.

At the same time, when the economy reaches the level of middle income, not only the economic problems will be more complicated, but also the political and social problems will become more prominent.

At the early stage of development, when people's food and clothing problems are basically solved, they will put forward higher requirements for fairness and justice, and the corresponding political appeals will also continue to improve. In the past, the gap between the rich and the poor, corruption, environmental problems, food safety and the lack of social credit may be the inducements of social unrest, and once the social stability can not be effectively maintained, the catching up process will slow down or even break down.

These are risks and challenges that must be addressed and properly addressed under the new normal.

In your opinion, what risks do we need to prevent and resolve in the current economic operation of China?

Li Wei: first of all, we need to study financial risks.

When the economic growth rate is declining, the growth rate of fiscal revenue is even larger.

Therefore, in the coming period, the overall slowdown in fiscal revenue is the general trend.

In addition, medical and old-age spending will continue to increase, and the phasing adjustment of the real estate market will bring about significant reduction in land revenue. All these factors will aggravate financial pressure and even lead to local risks.

In 2015, the land revenue reduction brought by the phasing adjustment of the real estate market, the relative concentration of local debt repayment, the gradual withdrawal of excess capacity and the need to maintain infrastructure investment will aggravate financial pressure, especially the local financial pressure at the grass-roots level.

The second is financial risk.

It includes preventing the risk of local financial institutions and resolving government debts.

In addition, we should pay attention to the decline in corporate efficiency, the increase in the rate of non-performing loans and the issue of mutual guarantee.

All these need to carry out targeted decision consultation research.

The second is the real estate market risk.

The overall downward trend of the real estate market will continue, and the task of going to stock is still arduous, and the trend of market differentiation is aggravating.

At the same time, some real estate enterprises expand too fast, the market is not smooth, the financing capacity is insufficient, the ability to resist risks is weak, the risk of breach of contract and capital chain breaks up obviously.

How to prevent risks and ensure the healthy development of the real estate market is urgent.

Of course, we should also guard against employment risks.

Under the new normal situation, the structural contradiction of employment is still outstanding: first, economic structural adjustment, some traditional surplus industries are faced with elimination and conversion, and many workers will inevitably be unemployed or pferred to work. Because of the short term adaptation of skills to new jobs and new formats, frictional unemployment will increase. The two reason is that due to the problem of mismatch with industrial upgrading and job demand, the employment pressure of college students will continue for a period of time.

In addition, due to the obvious changes in the two generation of migrant workers' employment patterns and remuneration requirements, the buffer effect of the original land on employment fluctuation has been significantly reduced.

The Australian East Asia Forum recently published an article entitled "innovation revolution" in China's economy. The article thinks that in the commentary on China's economic growth, few people mentioned the innovation of Chinese enterprises in the new mode, and the impact of innovation on productivity is a revolution.

China is rapidly becoming a centre of innovation.

How does innovation become a new driving force for growth?

Li Wei: the pformation of the economic development stage is, on the surface, the shift and adjustment of growth rate, but the essence is the pformation and continuity of growth momentum.

In my opinion, the key to nurturing new growth momentum lies in innovation. In addition to product innovation, production organization innovation and technological innovation, institutional and institutional innovation, the core is to carry out technological innovation.

The world is nurturing a new round of technological revolution represented by 3D printing, distributed energy and Internet of things. It will also have a profound impact on China's future development.

In the field of digital robots, distributed energy, smart grid, Internet of things, new materials and so on, China and the developed countries are generally on the same starting line, and have the opportunity to take the lead in innovation, even at the forefront of innovation.

We should co-ordinate the allocation of innovative resources and strive to achieve major breakthroughs in these new technologies.

In his government report, Premier Li referred to "China made 2025 plan", including vigorously developing high-end equipment manufacturing, emerging industries, bio energy, energy conservation and environmental protection.

To promote the pformation of manufacturing power to manufacturing power, what aspects should we take to promote innovation?

Li Wei: first, we must strive to promote technological innovation.

In the new field of technology, such as materials manufacturing, digital robots, distributed energy, smart grid, Internet of things, new materials and so on, China and the developed countries are generally on the same starting line, and have the opportunity to walk in the forefront of innovation, even at the forefront of innovation.

Second, efforts should be made to promote innovation in the way of production organization.

The adjustment of production organization mode is conducive to reducing production costs and improving production efficiency under existing technological conditions.

Third, we should focus on promoting the innovation of business model.

The innovation of business mode helps to expand the existing market and create new demand. It helps to reduce production costs and guide production to better adapt to consumption.

Fourth, we should make full use of innovative resources both at home and abroad.

The new round of technological revolution should not only make full use of the global innovation resources, but also focus on improving the capability of independent innovation in the process of innovation.

We must never create a closed door and learn from other countries' innovative achievements in a more open mind to expand the connotation and form of cooperative innovation.

Fifth, we must speed up the construction of a good ecological environment for innovation.

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