Cotton City Cattle Road Does Not Change The Future Market Is Optimistic.

Recently, Zheng cotton fell sharply, reflecting on previous gains.

As of yesterday's close, cotton main 1701 contract reported 14765 yuan / ton, nearly three trading days totaled 5.84% down.

Looking back at the cotton trend this year, taking the main 1701 contract as an example, the annual increase has been about 60% so far, but after July 5th, it entered a new round of shocks.

Analysts believe that the uncertainty from the news may be a major factor leading to the fall in cotton prices. The weekly export of US cotton exports released last Thursday may provide new guidelines for short-term cotton prices, and weather factors will continue to dominate the market in the coming weeks.

Comprehensive supply, weather, policy and other factors, in the long run, the cotton market will not change.

Globally, almost all cotton producing countries, such as China and the United States, have been cut down due to weather reasons, which is an important reason for creating the "dark horse" of cotton in the current period.

At home,

Change is a key factor in the take-off of cotton prices.

Zhejiang merchants futures cotton research report that, in terms of supply, domestic cotton production continued to decline in 2016/2017, and the supply gap expanded compared with the previous year. In terms of consumption, the overall situation of downstream textile enterprises has improved compared with previous years, and the price difference between cotton and domestic yarn has widened. The substitution of domestic yarn for imported yarn is expected to continue.

Among them, the policy of collecting and throwing, which plays a regulatory role, plays an important role in the rhythm of market.

According to Founder Founder futures analyst Wang Yuhong, beginning in May 3rd, the domestic cotton market began to throw away the stock. Because of the slow speed of the resource check, the turnover was high, and the price continued to rise, which brought positive feedback to the market.

Cotton price action can not be enough.

Resource out.

Starting in May 26th, 30 thousand tons per day.

The amount of investment gradually shrinks.

"In the first two weeks before the launch, 30 thousand tons can be guaranteed every day, but after third weeks, the impact of the slow speed of the public inspection is decreasing, while the enterprises are actively involved, which leads to the high turnover of dumping and storage, and the price of throwing and storing is also rising after third weeks.

After eleventh weeks, it will increase the amount of dumping and storage, ensure 30 thousand tons per day, and the demand for the downstream enterprises will slow down after the peak period, and the price will continue to be inadequate.

Express。

From the cotton auction price trend, the open data show that in June 6th, the national cotton auction price was 12714 yuan / ton, 12974 yuan / ton in June 17th, 12990 yuan / ton in June 20th, 13413 yuan / ton in June 27th, 14272 yuan / ton in July 1st, followed by a rapid rise, but with the increase in the volume of July 11th in the week after July 11th, the rally of the market was gradually curbed, and the price remained stable after the market.

Futures market, the 1701 cotton futures contract in July 5th after entering a narrow range of platform shocks.

The latest data show that as of July 27th, the cumulative turnover of cotton reserves was 1 million 567 thousand and 100 tons, and the total volume of imported cotton was 296 thousand and 300 tons, with a turnover rate of 98.16%. The total turnover of domestic cotton was 1 million 270 thousand and 800 tons, with a turnover rate of 98.38%.

In July 28th, the reserve cotton market was 30 thousand tons.

Galaxy futures research is not pessimistic for the demand side. They believe that the recent cotton reserve turnover rate has been maintained at 100%, and the average price of cotton reserves has been maintained at over 15000 yuan / ton.

Downstream demand, cotton yarn rose sharply after the rise of gray cloth, the rally is gradually rising to the downstream market.

India and Pakistan and other countries are short of cotton and the price of international cotton is strong.

Lido fermentation, the risk point of cotton market is the change of policy.

In the rising trend of long-term cotton reserves, the strategy of high throwing and low absorption should be adopted in the short term.