RMB Exchange Rate, 6.7 Pass Game, International Speculative Capital.

In September 5th, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 6.6873, down 146 basis points from the previous trading day.

As of 5 days, 20 hours, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar (CNY) in the domestic offshore market was hovering at 6.6763, and the offshore renminbi market in Hongkong was close to 6.6913 against the US dollar, hitting 6.6983 in the session.

"The dollar rebounded last Friday, the 5 day.

One of the main reasons why the exchange rate continues to suffer downward pressure.

A foreign exchange trader at a Hongkong bank said.

Last Friday, the US non farm payrolls data released in August were not as good as expected in the market. However, the US dollar remained stable and rebounded, indicating that the market was expecting a rise in the US dollar interest rate hike in September, and the RMB exchange rate would face a big fall.

Debt King Grosse recently made it clear that US economic data in August allowed the fed to raise interest rates in September by nearly 100%.

Jan Hatzius, chief economist of Goldman Sachs, also said that although the growth rate of employment in August was lower than that in the United States,

But this figure is still higher than the Fed's expectation of a balanced level. The Federal Reserve raised interest rate to 55% in September.

International opportunistic capital looks for this opportunity, and wants to sell renminbi arbitrage by raising interest rate in the US dollar.

"In terms of speculative capital, 6.7 is the key price for the future direction of the RMB exchange rate.

If the RMB exchange rate falls below 6.7, the market expected to stabilize in the near future will be reversed sharply, and the pressure of RMB depreciation will increase sharply.

The foreign exchange trader said.

This led to speculation that the central bank intervened in the foreign exchange market.

Many foreign exchange traders admitted, 5 days, large Chinese capital.

The RMB buying is more active, pushing the spot exchange rate of RMB can not effectively fall below 6.8.

"But this can not be equated with the central bank's intervention in the foreign exchange market."

An American investment bank said that the price of the RMB exchange rate was set at 5 yuan, lower than the closing price of 6.68 on the previous day and 6.6821 at night, indicating that the central bank had not artificially raised the central parity of the RMB exchange rate.

As the US dollar rate hike is expected to continue to rise, how to reverse the market expectations of the continued depreciation of the renminbi will once again test the wisdom of the central bank's exchange rate management.

Economists from financial institutions suggested that the Central Bank of China should pass the RMB exchange rate signal to a basket of currencies while the Central Bank of China needs to set an interval for the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate. Once the RMB exchange rate touches the bottom of the interval, strong intervention measures will be adopted to reverse the market expectation of the continued depreciation of the RMB.

In fact, the move has achieved good results.

At the end of June, the renminbi fell to 6.7 against the US dollar, but then quickly stabilized.

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Market believes that the central bank through a series of measures to convince the market that the RMB exchange rate fluctuations at the bottom of the 6.7 line, resulting in the participation of short selling of RMB international speculative capital failed.

People in the financial industry reminded us that at that time, the market believed that the bottom of the RMB was 6.7. On the one hand, it believed that the central bank would stabilize the RMB exchange rate on the eve of the G20. On the other hand, it was generally believed that the dollar would be difficult to raise interest rates in the year, and it would give the renminbi an excellent opportunity to rebound.