Capital Market: The Stock Market Will Fluctuate Before Gold Reaches The Top.

In early March, the PMI index of manufacturing industry released by the United States in February rose to a new high in this short cycle.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points.

But after raising interest rates, gold ETF has shown signs of rebound. For this reason, fund managers believe that the US may raise interest rates again in June, and the two time of raising interest rates, the risk aversion or upward trend will have opportunities for gold investment.

Overall, the Fed is in the cycle of rising interest rates, and is affected by the rebound in oil prices. The shale oil output in the US has increased rapidly, and the subsequent CPI continues to rise rapidly, so the overall real interest rate will gradually rise to the gold market or will be suppressed.

But the performance of the gold price depends more on the rhythm of the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates. Before March, the market generally expected that the US would raise interest rates for the first time in June, so a wave of gold prices rebounded at the beginning of the year.

From the beginning of March, Fed officials frequently released the interest rate signals, making the market expected to be adjusted rapidly, and the market attention was re placed on the good economic data of the United States.

However, Wang Xiang believes that the performance of the market has always been heavier than expected, but with the dust settled in March, the policy gap is expected to be formed before June.

And the election of Holland and France will open the curtain of European political storm, and market risk preference may be obviously restrained in the short term.

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It is expected that the impact of interest rate hike on gold will be weakened and gold will return to the rebound period.

Qianhai open source gold and silver jewelry fund manager Xie Yi analysis.

Already in a short period of high economic boom, the next quarter economic growth will open a high and volatile mode, the fundamentals are still good.

Interest rate policy is only likely to raise interest rates again in June.

Asset allocation, based on the still strong fundamentals, Xie Yi believes that U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, including A shares, including risk assets continue to improve.

Industry, matching the fundamentals of cyclical improvement industries, including upstream resources and energy industries will be a strong medium and short term varieties.

However, due to the gradual decline of the long cycle, the risk taking industry in the equity market will also be concerned.

He believes that the two are not contradictory, because the cyclical industry

Focusing on the medium and short term, the aperiodic focuses on the medium and long term. In the large asset class other than the stock market, the deductive order of risky assets and risk assets is similar to that of the stock market's internal cycle and risk avoidance industry, but the time span is much longer.

First of all, cyclical assets in large categories of assets, that is, commodities will be high and volatile, the best possible increase may have passed, but the real fall will only be opened after the stock market falls, while the risk assets gold will continue to oscillate before the peak of the entire economic cycle.

When the stock market falls (overheating) and even commodities fall (stagflation period), it will see the top. If the central bank again uses unconventional measures (such as quantitative easing), the top will be far ahead of expectations.

On the choice of varieties, Xie Yi believes that gold assets can be long-term configured as medium and long-term varieties, including physical gold, paper gold, gold ETF and gold and silver jewelry fund.

It is estimated that the initial elasticity of gold and silver jewelry fund will be greater than that of gold, but there will be more volatility before the stock market starts to fall to the top of gold.

Judging from yesterday's trading, 4 gold ETF in the field were closed.

At present, the largest gold ETF fund has reached 7 billion 100 million.

Last week, the new share reached 28 million, accounting for 1.09% of the total size, while the second largest gold ETF share increased by 0.62%.

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