The Rebound Of The Cotton Market Under The Reform Of Financial Supply Side Or The Period Of Maturity

In recent years, the term "supply side" has been frequently seen in people's eyes, so that financial white people have gradually realized the meaning of the "supply side", that is, the supply side, the supply side, relative to the demand side.

The steady development of the national economy depends on the relative balance between demand and supply in the economy.

This seems to be a little easier to understand.

In more detail, the supply side structural reform aims at adjusting the economic structure, achieving optimal allocation of factors and improving the quality and quantity of economic growth.

Tracing back to history, in November 10, 2015, the supply side structural reform was first put forward. In January 27, 2016, the relevant departments of the state studied the supply side structural reform plan, and put forward "three go down, one reduction and one subsidy".

At the same time, in the cotton market, in 2014, the "central document No.1" pointed out that Xinjiang cotton target price subsidies pilot work.

The state ended the three year policy of temporary storage and purchase, and cotton target price subsidies began. After the approval of the State Council, the target price level of cotton in 2014-2016 years was 19800 yuan, 19100 yuan and 18600 yuan per ton respectively.

The target price was announced before planting, which better guided cotton production.

In 2017, cotton target price reform was deepened in Xinjiang, and the target price level of cotton was three years.

In the 2017-2019 year, the target price of cotton in Xinjiang was 18600 yuan per ton.

First, the target price is stable after 18600 yuan / ton, the cotton planting area and the price stability.

Figure 1 shows that since the implementation of the target price subsidy policy, with the target price stabilized at 18600 yuan / ton, the cotton planting area and the domestic cotton market prices have remained stable overall, especially in Xinjiang. The cotton planting area has been steadily rising, and the quality of cotton has been continuously improving.

Two. Since the implementation of the target price policy, the quality of cotton has been improved, which is in line with the core of the reform of the agricultural supply side.

The core of the structural reform of the supply side of agriculture is to adjust the production of products, including quality and quantity, to meet the needs of consumers and realize the seamless connection between the place of origin and the place of consumption through the adjustment of their own efforts.

In recent years, cotton production accounts for more than 8 of the cotton output in Xinjiang. Since the implementation of the target price policy, the quality of Xinjiang cotton has been improved, and the overall quality index and sub item index of cotton quality are similar to the national quality distribution.

According to the public inspection data, Xinjiang cotton color level and fiber length increased after nearly two or three years, remained stable, Ma Kelong value, rolling quality and fracture strength were improved to varying degrees, but the length uniformity of cotton decreased.

It is manifested in:

First, the color level of cotton has been upgraded, and has remained stable in the past 3 years.

According to the data of public inspection, white cotton accounted for 98.2% in 2017, 2016 percentage points higher than that in 2016, 0.32 percentage points higher than the average in the three years, 1.5% in less polluted cotton, 0.6 percentage points lower than 2016 in the 2016 year, 0.17 percentage points lower than that in the three year, and less than that in the year of three, a decrease of 1% in comparison with the average year, and a decrease of nearly one percentage point in the recent year.

Two is cotton fiber length increase, nearly two years basically flat.

Judging from the data of public inspection, cotton accounted for 10.77% of cotton fiber length of 30-32 millimeters in 2017, and cotton accounted for 93.24% of 28-32 millimeters, which increased 7.72% and 5.96% compared with 2014, and 1.88 percentage points and 5.88 percentage points in the recent three years.

The three is that the cotton micron value first drops and then rises. From the public inspection data, the percentage of cotton micron clone grade A is 15.43%, the B level is 65.82%, and the A+B level is 81.25%, which has increased 2.96%, reduced 1.4%, increased 1.56%, increased by 3.4 percentage points, 3.4 percentage points and three percentage points in the recent three years respectively compared with the 2017 year.

Four, the cotton mill's quality is P2 file.

From the public inspection data, 2017 cotton mill workers accounted for 3.6% of P1 and 95.01% of P2, respectively, representing a decrease of 2.93%, an increase of 4.37% over the 2016 year, a 3.03 percentage point decrease and a 4.38 percentage point increase over the last three years.

Five is the increase of cotton fracture strength.

Judging from the data of public inspection, the ratio of cotton breaking strength to strong grade and above in 2017 is 89.79%, which is 89.79% higher than that in 2016, which is 2.58% or 1.24% higher than that in 2016.

Six, cotton length uniformity decreased.

Judging from the data of public inspection, the proportion of cotton length uniformity in the year 2017 was higher than 34.17%, and the proportion of middle grade and above was 98.68%, which decreased by 16.73% and 0.73% compared with that in 2016, and decreased by 7.69 percentage points and 0.46 percentage points in the recent three years.

Three, financial supply side structural reform and other policies will support the market.

The above is a manifestation of cotton policy support.

In addition, the structural reform of the financial supply side and the recently released outlook on investment form 2019 also give some support to the market.

1, stabilize finance, promote entities, and develop high-end manufacturing industries.

On February 22, 2019, Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, stressed that finance should serve the real economy and meet the needs of economic and social development and the needs of the masses.

Financial activity, economic activity, financial stability, economic stability.

Economic prosperity and financial prosperity; strong economy and strong finance.

The economy is the body, finance is blood, and the two are symbiotic and common.

We must deepen our understanding of the nature and laws of Finance and base ourselves on the reality of China and get out of the road of financial development with Chinese characteristics.

Xi Jinping pointed out that to deepen the structural reform of the financial supply side, we must implement the new development concept, strengthen the function of financial services, identify the key points of financial services, and serve the real economy and serve the people's life.

We should focus on optimizing and adjusting the financial structure, optimize the financing structure and financial institutions, market system and product system, and provide higher quality and more efficient financial services for the development of the real economy.

Recently, the national development and Reform Commission released the 2019 investment outlook report, which is expected to stabilize in 2019. The investment in high-end manufacturing and modern service industries has become the main driving force, and the growth of infrastructure investment has improved slightly.

2, cotton trend is relatively stable.

As we all know, cotton has both commodity attributes and financial attributes. After 2010-2011 years of "roller coaster" (following chart) market, cotton gradually returns to commodity attributes from financial attributes, and now it is in a relatively stable trend.

3, the vitality of capital market will be aroused.

The reform of the financial supply side will undoubtedly provide a certain impetus for the current financial market, and will stimulate the vitality of the capital market to a certain extent. The reform of the financial supply side is an important complement to the reform of the supply side of the real economy. The core is to "strengthen the financial services function", optimize the market structure, guard against risks, increase the two-way opening of the financial industry, and cultivate the financial market with international influence.

As the saying goes, "people gather firewood and fire is high", nearly a week's market trend is boosting the financial market.

First of all, in February 27th, the first payment of the occupational pension plan of the central state organs and their institutions was assigned to the China Life Pension Co as the trustee's plan No.1 entrusted property account.

In February 28th, the funds had been purchased through the purchase of pension products.

Secondly, in the morning of March 1st in Beijing, MSCI announced another heavy profit.

Will increase the weight of China's A shares in the MSCI index, from 5% to 20%, the MSCI expansion plan, MSCI will increase the factor of A shares from 5% to 20%, and the incremental funds for the A share market in the industry are about 500 billion, specifically between 400 billion and 600 billion.

People predict that the weight increase will add about 66 billion U.S. dollars (440 billion yuan contract) overseas funds into the A share market.

If there is a substantial purchase of foreign capital, the undervalued Chinese assets may brighten the eyes of the Chinese.

Third, in March 2nd, the office of the trade representative of the United States announced that the import tariffs on imports from China would not be raised until September 2018, and the tariff rate would continue to be 10% until further notice.

In this regard, the head of the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council said that it welcomed the measures taken by the United States.

The mutual benefit and win-win situation between China and the United States will stimulate market vitality to a certain extent and reduce the pessimism of market participants.

Finally, the "two sessions" will be superimposed, and the market rebound can also be expected.

The above news will undoubtedly bring positive effects to the stock market, and will also stimulate the futures market to a certain extent. This will undoubtedly give comfort to the current downward pressure of the global economy.

Back to the fundamentals of cotton, the holiday atmosphere gradually receded, and the production and sales of factories gradually returned.

Textile market, some textile enterprises said that after the Spring Festival, the price of cotton yarn has been reduced, and sales have slightly improved; in the cotton market, the processing enterprises are driven by a small amount of replenishment of textile enterprises, and a small amount of purchasing processing is started, and the quoted price rises slightly.

In Zhengzhou cotton market, the cost of support and other factors affect the overall volatility mainly in the large range, the rising kinetic energy has, but the degree remains to be observed, we still need to pay attention to the global economic situation, especially the impact of consumption on cotton consumption.