Polyester Filament Continues To Pull Up Downstream To Produce Resistance.

Polyester filament market showed obvious signs of rebound, Sheng Hong, Hengli, Tong Kun, new Feng Ming and other mainstream enterprises generally rose.

In March, polyester filament market rebounded.

As of March 7th, the mainstream price of conventional POY150D/48F was 8500-9000 yuan / ton, up 4.8% from the end of 2, rising 8% over the year's low.

The value added tax of manufacturing industry has been lowered, and the commodity market has shown a strong overall performance.

On the other hand, the dynamic increase of PTA overhaul has promoted the strong rise of futures and spot prices.

At the same time, MEG prices are rising synchronously.

Upstream raw materials rose sharply, effectively stimulating the purchasing power of loom and weaving factories, polyester factory production and sales data generally spread, polyester filament prices continued to rise, the single day increase to 200-300 yuan / ton.

In the next period of time, polyester filament prices or moderate rise.

The judgement is based on the following:

First, the international oil price rate will rise and the current trend of recovery will continue.

The bottom support for production cuts still exists, and the pressure of economic downturn is still unable to break the underlying support.

With the easing of monetary policy by major central banks, worries about economic downturn are gradually being digested by the market.

On the contrary, with the subsequent OPEC monthly report, production is expected to continue to push forward, supply reduction to boost oil prices.

In addition, the drop in crude oil output in Venezuela and Iran also boosted oil prices.

In short, in the current stage, compared with weak demand, the reduction of output to oil price boosting is obviously more effective.

Two, polyester raw materials market is still bullish.

On the PTA side, the high storage pressure of polyester gradually relieved, easing the drag on PTA demand, but under Zhou Huabin and Liwan device restart expectations, PTA supply will rise again, and polyester cash flow performance under pressure, PTA is expected to rise or gradually slow down.

PTA is expected to be adjusted around 6-6800 yuan / ton.

MEG, coincides with the delivery period superimposed polyester finished products to ease pressure on the market, the market mentality has been boosted, but the port to inventory pressure has not been substantially alleviated, the market pressure, or will be between 5250-5450 yuan / ton shock.

Three, polyester filament supply and demand rebalance.

After the recent concentrated volume trading, the overall inventory level of the industry declined.

As of Thursday, the mainstream stocks of polyester POY and FDY were 10-20 days, individual higher 25-30 days, individual lower 5-10 days, polyester DTY mainstream stocks 15-25 days, individual higher 25 days above the top level, individual 7-10 days lower.

At the same time, the terminal weaving rate has generally recovered.

As of Thursday, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms comprehensive boot rate near 84%, an increase of 9 percentage points.

Specific to the production base, Shengze water loom operating rate 80-90%, Changxin 90% near the level, Shaw round machine operating rate of 80% near the level.

In terms of warp knitting, the overall construction rate in Haining is 70-90% and Changshu 70-90%.

To sum up, at the present stage, compared with weak demand, the reduction of output to international oil price is obviously more effective.

In addition, after this week's concentrated volume trading, the stock level of polyester filament industry has generally declined, which is conducive to the operation of the market.

But this week, the weaving factories have concentrated their positions, and the price of polyester filament has been rising continuously. The industry has a certain resistance to high prices, and the enthusiasm or decline of the market has been made.