Viscose Staple Prices Fell 4.5% Compared With The Beginning Of March, The Short Term Is Still Bearish.

I. market quotation

According to the price data of business associations, the average price of 1.2D*38mm viscose staple fiber was 13011 yuan / ton as of March 19th, which was 4.56% lower than the price in early March, or more than 600 yuan / ton.

From the trend in the past 3 months, we can see that prices are falling all the way.

The middle end market quoted 12500-13000 yuan / ton, and even the factory quoted price 12000 yuan / ton, the high-end market quoted price 13100-13800 yuan / ton, the actual paction price reduced 200-300 yuan / ton on the above quoted price.

Most manufacturers offer a reduction of 500 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Two, industrial chain situation

1. upstream price stability

Domestic cotton lint prices are mainly stable, partly rising.

The start-up rate of cottonseed oil plant is also low, the output of short staple is small, and the price of oil factory is still strong. But under the influence of environmental protection, the factory operation rate of downstream factories is low, and the price of imported short staple is low.

The quality of cotton short staple in Shandong is quoted at 3600-3950 yuan / ton, 50-150 yuan / ton lower than the previous week's low position, and 3200-3500 yuan / ton of Industrial cotton lint at high price in Xinjiang area. The price is 2900-3000 yuan / ton at low price.

There is no offer for dissolving pulp at home and abroad. Due to the continuous decline of viscose staple fiber prices in recent years, the purchasing intention of viscose is also not enthusiastic. The pulp prices are strong in recent years, and the pulp mill has good fundamentals, so the possibility of dissolving pulp is low.

Overall, the upstream is still running smoothly, and there is no big accident.

2. downstream market slightly better

As of March 19th, the price of 30S cotton yarn in Shandong area was 19450 yuan / ton, down 0.77% from the beginning of March, or 150 yuan / ton, the trend is basically the same as viscose.

The middle end market quoted 18000-19000 yuan / ton, the high-end market quoted price 19100-19600 yuan / ton, occasionally high price was above 20000, came to 20500 yuan / ton.

The downstream products of post spinning spinning factory once fell back. In February, Shandong 30S cotton yarn was hidden at 18600-19000 yuan / ton. After March, the market shock intensified. At present, the price of 30S cotton yarn in Shandong area is 18500-20500 yuan / ton, and the difference between high price and low price is 2000 yuan / ton.

It is understood that Henan, Shandong and other places, the price of reactive cotton yarn is relatively stable, the southern cloth factory has been started, the stock of pre yarn has also continued to decline, and some yarn prices have risen slightly.

In the peak season of consumption, the market is showing signs of a slight fluctuation, but most of the textile companies are cautious. It is expected that yarn prices will remain stable in the short term.

3. industry inventory backlog

Before the Spring Festival, sticky enterprises are allowed to shift profits, and continue to inventory to ease post holiday sales pressure, and help after the festival, but after the festival, the lower reaches of the company are slow to start up. The short run orders of enterprises are generally slow to implement. Most of the enterprises are mainly digesting the raw materials. There are only a few sticky short fields. Although the appearance is short, the orders of enterprises can be carried out until the end of February, and even before the beginning of March, and the pressure on real inventory, sales and capital is getting more and more obvious. According to the market, the industry inventory is more than 20 days.

Three, summary

On the whole, the profit of viscose staple fiber industry chain is still concentrated in the downstream cotton yarn business, viscose staple fiber market is still in a loss situation, and there is no good support for fundamentals. It is expected that the latter should not continue to slide. Viscose staple mills are more reluctant to ship because of higher inventory and stronger shipments.

In the short term, the viscose will still fall, and in the long run, the golden three silver four season may be able to push the market.