Where Will The Market Trend Of Traditional Off-Season Pure Polyester Yarn Go

In May, affected by the macro negative, PX prices fell. In addition, the production and sales of polyester factories were light, and the PTA market fell sharply; At the beginning of the month, PTA was still strong, supported by the spot repurchases of large manufacturers, and the decline of polyester staple fiber was relatively slow. Affected by low profits and rising inventories, some enterprises began to implement production reduction and suspension operations. The overall decline of market prices in the first ten days was not large. However, after the middle of the year, PTA began to decline due to the reduction of polyester production and the impact of height processing fees. After the cost collapse, the decline of polyester staple fiber market began to expand. Recently, affected by the news, PX price rise led to the recovery of polyester production and sales, and PTA price may be supported to some extent; However, the terminal performance is general, the downstream replenishment operation is still cautious, the recovery of polyester production and sales is difficult to continue, and the de stocking process of polyester staple fiber market is slow. At present, the average inventory of polyester staple fiber is still about half a month. In addition, the purchase efforts of the yarn mill are relatively limited under the background of its own high inventory, and the market price has a great resistance to rise. In general, In the short term, short polyester suppliers are still mainly taking advantage of the trend to ship, and the price lacks rebound momentum. The market may stabilize in the near future.

With the economic downturn and the saturation of grey fabric market supply, the operating rate of looms has generally declined by 30% to 40%. At present, the comprehensive operating rate of looms nationwide is 66.78%, 7.4% lower than that of last month, of which the comprehensive operating rate of air jet looms is 83%, 7% lower than that of last month, and the average operating rate of water jet looms is 77.33%, 12.7% lower than that of last month, The operating rate of water jet looms in Wujiang area is 72.6%. The inventory of finished products of most enterprises is between 48-65 days, and the inventory of grey cloth of a few enterprises is 80-90 days; This week, the comprehensive startup rate of the big round loom dropped to a low level near 40%, 8% lower than last month. The overall startup rate of the round loom is still very different. With the inflow of grey cloth from central and southern regions into China, the oversupply market has led to the continuous compression of textile enterprises' cash flow, which is on the verge of loss, and some small textile mills have been forced to shut down; In addition, the tariff rate imposed on the US $200 billion list of goods imported from China has increased from 10% to 25%. This factor continues to undermine the foreign trade order market, especially forcing American buyers to transfer orders to Southeast Asia and other places. Traders should purchase cautiously. According to the practice in previous years, weaving gradually entered the off-season after May, and the lack of overall orders and high finished product inventory in the later period will jointly benefit the pure polyester yarn market.

To sum up, the price center of pure polyester yarn market has continued to decline due to the high resistance of raw material end and negative factors on the demand side. At present, the inventory pressure of pure polyester yarn is relatively high. Most regions have lowered the offer by 1000-1200 this month, but the downstream continues to be weak. The actual orders are mostly based on a single discussion strategy, with frequent low prices; At present, the focus of mainstream T32S negotiation in Changle is 12000-12300, and the offer is slightly higher than 12500; Jinzhou knitting and weaving pure polyester yarn T32S (Dahua) tax free mainstream negotiation price is between 11300 and 11500; The ex factory quotation of Dahua T21S ring ingot for weaving in Xiao Shao area, including tax, is concentrated in 11700-11900; The ex factory price including tax of T16S of Rugao Industrial Dahua is 11700-11800. The lack of purchasing power in the downstream leads to the limited effect of discount promotion on order and inventory mitigation, and the average inventory of yarn enterprises reaches 21 days; Under the cautious market forecast in June, the industry was pessimistic. However, considering that the PTA processing fee has been reduced to more than 800 and the profit margin of polyester staple fiber has been reduced to less than 150 recently, most polyester staple fiber enterprises have already lost money, and some even intend to expand and reduce production, so there is some support at the bottom of the raw material market; However, the downstream demand is still weak, and the raw material market has great resistance to inflation. It is expected that the market will focus on stable shipments in the near future, and the downward trend will continue in June. (Unit: yuan/ton)