Vietnam Accounts For 1% Or More Of The Textile And Apparel Market In The United States.

According to Vietnam cotton yarn association analysis, although the United States impose tariffs on Chinese textiles to Vietnam textile production opportunities, but Vietnam faces the same risk. On the whole, Vietnam's textile and apparel market share will increase by 1%, thanks to the Sino US trade war.


According to the Vietnam cotton yarn Association, if Sino US agreement can not be reached at the end of June, and Trump adds tariffs to the rest of China's textiles and clothing, Vietnam's textile and clothing has great potential to expand its market share in the United States. In particular, textiles, footwear and other products will seize the market share of China in the United States, and American buyers will shift their orders to other countries. Conversely, if China and the United States reach an agreement, if the United States does not impose tariffs on all textile and apparel products in China, Vietnam will also expand its market share of textile and clothing imports in the coming quarters. Vietnam experts believe that since Vietnam imposed tariffs on Chinese products, Vietnam's textile market share has increased by 0.2%. If the Sino US trade war is escalated, Vietnam's share of textile and clothing imports will increase by 1%, and its exports will reach US $25 billion, close to 10% of Vietnam's total exports, which is 25% of Vietnam's exports to the US in 2018.


Nevertheless, as Vietnam's trade surplus with the United States is widening, Vietnam is also facing great risks. Trump is likely to pay close attention to Vietnam's exports to the United States and take measures to limit it. In 2018, Vietnam was one of the largest trade surplus with the United States, with a surplus of US $36 billion, ranking seventh. If Vietnam's exports to the United States grow by US $25 billion, Vietnam's trade surplus with the United States will exceed US $50 billion, which may make the United States abolish the GSP treatment in Vietnam. In the short term, the United States may use Vietnam as a substitute for China temporarily to retain its export advantage in the coming year.


Another risk is that Vietnam needs to import raw materials from China to export to the United States. Therefore, if Vietnam's exports increase substantially, the US will be more stringent in its examination of the country of origin. Once the raw materials of products are found in non CPTPP countries, the United States may impose sanctions on Vietnamese products. Vietnam can only strengthen market supervision and management and strictly distribute certificates of origin to avoid such risks.