Textile And Clothing Export Stability In The First Half Of The Year, Will "Golden Nine Silver Ten" Be Closed?

According to the statistics released by the General Administration of customs, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China in the first half of this year was 124 billion 230 million US dollars, down 2.37% from the same period last year (3.51% yuan over the same period last year), and the growth rate slowed down 0.6 percentage points compared with the first quarter. From the overall data, textile and garment exports remained stable in the first half of the year, but to a specific enterprise, there were several joys and worries.

"Price war is happiness."

Customs data showed that the total export volume of textiles in the first half of this year was US $58 billion 620 million, an increase of 0.66% over the same period (6.71% yuan over the same period last year), and the total export volume of clothing was 65 billion 610 million US dollars, down 4.93% from the same period last year (0.82% in the year over year).

In June this year, the total export volume of textiles in the same month was 10 billion 310 million US dollars, down 3.24% from the same period last year (3.85% yuan over the same period last year); clothing exported 14 billion 340 million US dollars in the same month, down 2.73% compared with the same period last year (4.51% in the year over year).

According to customs statistics, China's textile trade surplus was US $44 billion 276 million in the first 5 months of this year, the clothing surplus was US $48 billion 350 million, and the contribution rate to the national trade surplus was 33.9% and 37.1%, respectively, with a total contribution rate exceeding 70%. Combined with the overall performance in the first half of this year, the textile and garment industry's export earning capacity is outstanding, and the contribution rate to the national goods trade surplus is expected to exceed 60%.

In the second half of the year, we are faced with uncertainties in the international market. What is the situation of China's foreign trade textile enterprises?

A textile company official said that the export products in the first half of the year were mainly exported by traders and sold to Russia. This year, the volume of foreign trade orders is relatively stable, which has little change compared with last year. The number of old customers is stable and exports to the US are few. Therefore, the tension between Sino US trade relations has little effect on the company.

However, the person in charge said that the impact of exchange rate changes on the company is relatively large. Now the Federal Reserve has released a strong interest rate cut signal. The European Central Bank has also suggested that interest rates should be cut. At that time, the exchange rate of the US dollar and the euro will decrease.

In contrast, another company specializing in export of clothing and down clothing is not so good. The person in charge of the company said that the foreign trade market was not satisfactory recently, and it was also off season. There were few lists. I am afraid we will not have new orders until the end of August.

"In fact, it is a happy thing for us to fight a price war now. There is a list of things to do in price war, but now we have no choice but to do some small orders. Big orders simply don't dare to think." A textile product trader smiled bitterly.

Sino US trade frictions remain variable

Sino US trade friction is a factor that can not be ignored in China's textile and clothing export. In particular, since May 10th, the United States has formally imposed a 25% import tariff on US $200 billion worth of goods exported to China, including textile yarns, fabrics, knitwear, industrial manufactured goods and some household textiles, which has brought some pressure to China's textile enterprises to export to the US. However, judging from the current situation, the industry is generally controllable and the export toughness of the industry is still there.

In June 29th, the heads of state of China and the United States met during the G20 Osaka summit. The two sides agreed to resume economic and trade consultations on the basis of equality and mutual respect. The US side said it would no longer impose new tariffs on China's exports to the US. However, on the occasion of the new round of Sino US economic and trade consultations, the United States once again raised the tariff bar.

On July 16th, Trump, President of the United States, said at the White House cabinet meeting that if necessary, the United States might impose tariffs on Chinese products worth 325 billion US dollars, on the grounds that China has not been buying large quantities of American agricultural products. Thus, the prospect of Sino US trade relations is still complicated and confusing.

Under the background of Sino US trade friction, China's apparel foreign trade orders are struggling. Take Keqiao District of Shaoxing as an example, in June, the prosperity index of foreign textile enterprises decreased, because the Sino US trade negotiations were still full of variables. Overseas buyers' stock purchases were partially retracted, and the volume of newly added single volume and export volume of foreign trade enterprises decreased.

Some analysts pointed out that in the environment of China's textile economic growth decline, structural overcapacity, lack of international market demand, export growth decline or even negative growth and so on, how to go against the trend is an urgent problem for many textile enterprises.

At the same time, Vietnam's garment manufacturing industry is striding forward, which deserves our industry's vigilance. At present, many textile and garment factories in Vietnam have been filled with orders this year, and the export volume will break through 40 billion US dollars. According to the Vietnam people's daily, 6000 textile and garment enterprises account for 15% of Vietnam's total exports, making Vietnam's textile and clothing one of the economic sectors of Vietnam's fist and making Vietnam one of the three largest exporters of textiles and clothing.

For the export situation in July this year, textile and garment exports are expected to show a slight upward trend. The reason for this is that the implementation of the strategy of "one belt and one road" has pointed out the direction for the internationalization of more Chinese textile enterprises. More and more textile enterprises have opened up the market by participating in exhibitions and other channels. At the same time, the pace of "going out" is also accelerating, and the layout of the global industrial chain is also accelerating.