Before The Tariff Came Into Effect In December, US Retail Import Surged.

Before the US imposed another tariff on the mainland of China in December (2019), it is estimated that the import volume of the main retail container ports in the United States will reach the peak again this year in the next 11 months.

In early September, the United States embarked on a 15% new tariff on various consumer goods in the mainland of China (list 4A), including most garments and footwear products, which will be extended to other commodities in December 15th (list 4B, batch), covering a total value of $about 35000000000. In addition, in the past year, a 25% tariff on imports worth 250 billion US dollars was planned to increase to 30% in October 15th. This part, according to President trump, announced in October 11th that it would postpone the implementation of punitive tariffs from 250 billion to 25% for the US $250 billion export to China.

Jonathan Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy at National Retail Federation (NRF), explains: "before we can impose punitive tariffs on almost all Chinese American goods, this is the last chance to bring merchandise to the United States. Retailers are doing everything they can to reduce the impact of tariffs on their customers. During the shopping season, the impact of prices will be changed by retailers and products, but ultimately, taxes added to American businesses and consumers will eventually lead to commodity prices.

The latest global port tracking report (Global Port Tracker report) released by NRF and Hackett Associates shows that the US port has handled 1 million 970 thousand 20 foot containers (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units, TEU) in 8 menstruation this month, which has achieved the actual container volume this month. This is 0.2% higher than that in July, compared with 3.9% in the same period (2018). This is the 2 million import volume in October (August), and the volume of imports in August is second compared with the rest of the year. A TEU stands for a 20 foot standard container.

In view of the entry into force of the new tariff, the volume of container imports declined in September. The estimated 1 million 900 thousand and 20 feet of standard containers grew by 1.6% over the previous year (2018). Import volume is expected to reach 1 million 930 thousand in October, a decrease of 5.1% over the same period (2018), while in November, it is expected to be 1 million 970 thousand containers, up 8.9% over the same period last year, while August will be ranked as the second month high in the single month container volume.

However, it is estimated that the volume of container imports in December will be 1 million 780 thousand, down 9.3% from the same period last year. It is estimated that the decrease in container volume in November is due to the entry into effect of tariffs in December. However, according to historical records, the import volume of containers in October is on the decline, because most shopping season goods have arrived.

A total of 10 million 500 thousand containers in the first half of 2019, compared with 2.1% growth in the first half of 2018, are expected to set 22 million new records in 2019. This will grow by 1.2% over the 2180 container records of the year (2018).

Looking ahead to 2020, it is estimated that 1 million 860 thousand containers will be sold in Ming (2020) January, compared with 1.9% in January (2019). In February, traditionally the slowest month in a year, it was estimated that the number of containers will be 1 million 590 thousand, down 1.8% from the same period last year.

Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett added: "there is no doubt that the US trade policy and implementation mechanism has directly contributed to the slowdown in global economic growth. Nevertheless, imports continue to grow as retailers plan to import goods into the United States before tariffs come into effect. The momentum of retail consumption will push any substantial slowdown in imports to the year of 2020, when the overall impact of the tariff war will be transformed into a consumer tax with a sense of consumption.