Silver Ten Is Coming To An End, Polyester Industry Chain Downtrend Is Expected To Stop, It Is Expected That The Development Of The Market Will Gradually Improve.

In the first half of 2019, the textile market remained fairly stable, though there was still a certain gap between the two years ago. However, whether it was raw material or weaving, it was relatively "mild". However, in less than half a year, the textile industry has undergone a nearly 180 degree reversal. The market is "exhausted" and the polyester industry chain is also unable to escape the tragic fate.

Since the traditional off-season in seven and August, the textile market has not lived up to the low season nickname. Whether in terms of price, order, inventory or profit, the situation in recent years has been declining with the speed of "naked eyes". In particular, compared with the previous two years, there are even different changes.

PX: in May, it became a watershed, and the price dropped to three and a half years.

Traditionally, raw material PX occupies a relatively strong position in the polyester industry chain. But with the explosion of PX capacity in 2019, a rough calculation of PX production capacity in China will increase at least 10 million tons in 2019, with a growth rate of 75%. This phenomenon is changing quietly. Especially in May, it became the watershed of the PX market, and the price of "cliff clipper" fell. Then the PX price continued to run low.

In terms of specific prices, as of October 22nd, Asian PX price reached 760.67 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 780.67 US dollars / ton CFR China, Europe PX to 708 USD / ton FOB Rotterdam. Looking at this price, it has not only become the low price of PX market since 2019, but also the low price point of nearly three and a half years since March 2016.

PTA: in the second half of the year, "the wind of painting is abrupt", the price has been refreshed for more than two years.

If we use a word to describe PTA in the first half of this year, it is "willful". In the first half of the year, PTA is definitely "one of the best" in the polyester industry chain, not only the price is strong, but also the profit is more than 1000 yuan. However, since the second half of the year, the PTA market has suddenly changed its style. No matter what good news is on the market, PTA is not going to raise its price. Even if some unexpected incidents have gone up a little, it will not be long before it falls back.

Over the past few days, the PTA futures market has been declining, and has fallen below 5000 important points. As of October 23rd, the closing price of PTA futures contract 2001 has dropped to 4880 points. As for the spot market, the price of PTA is mostly around the 4850 yuan / ton -4950 yuan / ton, which is also in the low price this year. From the comparison of price data in recent years, the price of PTA has fallen back to the price level at the beginning of July 2017, and refreshed the low price in recent two years.

Ethylene glycol: "flash in the pan", down to the lowest price since January 2016!

Ethylene glycol futures since listing in December last year, after more than 3 months of consolidation, then all the way down, after continuing low adjustment; affected by this year, glycol prices are mainly disadvantaged collation. Until September, under the stimulation of low inventories, the ethylene glycol market was quite vigorous, and the price center of gravity was strong upward; however, in October, the market was on the decline. Traders were wailing wait-and-see, and the overall holding intention was weak.

In terms of specific prices, as of October 23rd, the MEG contract for the 2001 main business of the big business center fell to 4530 points. The spot price of ethylene glycol is also running weak, and the price of the internal market has dropped to 4600 yuan / ton -4650 yuan / ton, near the lowest level in the year. Compared with the price data in previous years, it has refreshed the low price since January 2016, becoming the lowest level in the past four years.

Polyester filament: create more than three years low price, loss is more "add insult to injury"!

This year, the polyester filament market is really difficult to fluctuate, and prices continue to run low. Especially in recent months, the price focus of polyester filament products has dropped to the lowest level in the year. It is easy to see that the price of raw materials has basically dropped to the low level in July 2016 by comparing the data. It can be imagined that this has become a low price for more than three years. Pet manufacturers feel sad not only the price, wandering around the profit and loss line, but carelessly plunged into a loss dilemma, and even doubled the pressure of polyester manufacturers.

Although the price of polyester industry chain is located in the low level for many years, and "silver ten" in the second half of the month, the polyester market has seen a wave of decline, but it has not been a good thing. Recently, the market has gradually released positive signals, or has a certain boost to the market.

First, trade war between China and the United States eased.

It is understood that in the afternoon of October 22nd, the information released by the Ministry of Commerce showed that the US Department of Commerce issued a notice recently that it would start the elimination procedure for the 300 billion plus US tariff list from October 31st. From October 31, 2019 to January 31, 2020, the United States interested parties may apply to the US Trade Representative Office (USTR) to exclude applications, including information about the substitutability of the products, whether they have been charged with anti-dumping or countervailing duties, whether they have important strategic implications or are related to the 2025 industrial policies made in China. If the application is approved, the tariffs that have been added since September 1, 2019 can be recalled back.

In any case, the announcement from the United States is more of a boost to market confidence, which has more or less confidence in both the exchange rate, futures market and the overall textile market.

Two, the demand for foreign trade in the weaving market has improved.

In recent years, the demand for foreign trade in the weaving market has gradually improved, and the local turnover in the fabric market is better than that in the early stage. For example, this year's hot products T400, T800 series, whether the order goods or market goods, the overall performance is better; another hot spot, recycled fabrics recent enquiries, proofing atmosphere is also good, most of the orders from Europe and the United States, according to a boss has received more than 30 million orders, it is expected that the future development potential is relatively large.

At the same time, along with the market drive, the backlog of high inventory pressure has been alleviated. According to the data of Chinese silk net sample, the inventory of grey fabric in Shengze has dropped to about 38 days.

In any case, the market should still have expectations and benefits, and the market for polyester industry should not be too pessimistic. As the latest data show, from the most upstream crude processing to the most downstream polyester manufacturing industry chain integrated operation Hengli petrochemical, profitability continues to improve, to market a dose of "strong heart"!

In the first three quarters of this year, Hengli petrochemical company achieved a profit of 76 billion 329 million yuan, an increase of 74.14% over the same period last year, and realized a net profit of 6 billion 817 million yuan attributable to shareholders of listed companies, an increase of 86.64% over the same period last year. It not only surpassed the profit level of last year, but also achieved a record high in revenue and profitability.