Leveraged Funds Borrow Two Ways To Accelerate The Market Cooling, Alert To Withdraw Risk

The rapid rise of the market in just a few days quickly turned the hot discussion of the market from "whether the bull market is really coming" to "this bull market is mad cow or slow bull".

One of the lessons of the fierce market fluctuations in 2015 is that excessive leverage has made huge gains in the market as a castle in the air. But with the coming of the bull market, leveraged funds are also important drivers.

Today, A shares have long lost the scale of HMOS allocation, but leveraged funds will continue to enter through the form of margin trading and OTC options.

In July 6th, the two financial balance data showed that there was a change in the channel of leveraged funds, and capital was speeding up admission through this path.

Although the market structure and leverage ratio of the market are much healthier than in 2015, with the rapid rise of the market and the accumulation of market risk factors, leveraged funds also need to be awe of the short-term market trend.

The A stock market in July 7th did not extend the market's emotional excitement in the past few days. In early trading, the stock index once exceeded 3400 points. But then the big blue chip started diving. The stock index immediately started a concussion trend, and the growth enterprise market rose more than 4% at the most. However, near the end of the day, brokerages and semiconductors once again fell, and the three major indexes rose sharply. Due to large differences in funds and active market transactions, the turnover of the two cities on the same day was further exceeded 1 trillion and 700 billion on the previous day, creating a new high of over 5 years.

Leveraged funds accelerate market entry

Regulators in recent years to crack down on off-site illegal allocation of funds has been quite effective. Therefore, if we want to add leverage to A shares, buying through the two channels is the first choice for many investors, and the bull market is coming to the market with high spirits. Adding leverage into the market has become a necessary choice for many investors or institutions.

In this case, according to the statistics of Oriental Wealth Choice, as of July 6th, the balance between the two cities in Shanghai and Shenzhen two was 1 trillion and 241 billion 829 million yuan, an increase of 38 billion 962 million yuan compared with the previous trading day. Among them, the Shanghai stock market has a balance of two yuan and a balance of 654 billion 450 million yuan, with a balance of two yuan in the Shenzhen stock market and a balance of 587 billion 380 million yuan. Specific to the stock market, the growth of the financing balance of the underlying stocks 1177, accounting for 74.87%, of which 466 stock financing balance increased by more than 5%.

It is worth noting that the two data in July 6th also set a record of two. The first increase of 38 billion 962 million yuan per day is a new historical record of two days of net buying scale. In addition, 1 trillion and 241 billion 829 million of the two balance is also the highest peak since the sharp fluctuations in the stock market in 2015.

"The two increase in the balance of a single day is also a sign that market sentiment is high. The market has always had a bull market plus leverage to gain greater returns. Therefore, it is the path of choice for many investors to add leverage to the market through two channels." A senior customer manager of a large brokerage firm in Central China told reporters.

In fact, it is not just July 6th, but since July, the trend of capital entering the market through the two fusion channels is very obvious. According to statistics from Oriental Fortune Choice, the net purchase amount of the two cities in the first 4 trading days in July (including July 6th) has reached 72 billion 200 million yuan, which is close to the scale of 79 billion 400 million yuan in June.

However, there is also a market view that although the single day net buying scale in July 6th has set a historical record, compared with 2015, the scale of funds entering the market through the two financial channels is far from the peak of the previous bull market.

A non silver analyst at a large brokerage firm told reporters: "from the second half of 2014, the bull market in the second half of the year, the net purchase amount of single month financing in two cities has been steadily maintained at more than 80 billion yuan, and in November 2014 and December respectively reached a small peak of 121 billion 300 million and 198 billion 400 million yuan. From March 2015 to May, financing funds ushered in a new wave of market climax, buying 335 billion 500 million yuan, 345 billion 100 million yuan and 240 respectively. 900 million yuan, the market will also be a comprehensive bull market to the climax. The bull market peak in 2015, the two city financing balance once reached the peak value of 2 trillion and 260 billion yuan in June 2015, at present, the two balance is 1 trillion and 241 billion 829 million yuan.

In fact, in addition to the two financing channels, the funds for entering the stock market through the OTC stock options and the OTC distribution channels have also begun to increase significantly. However, for the current size of such funds, the impact on market capital structure and leverage ratio can be neglected for the time being.

"Bull market, when investors want to add leverage to the mood is very strong, I recently began to make the allocation of funds, every day many investors to ask, but these investors generally have to increase the leverage ratio and the size of the capital market is not big, at the beginning of the bull market, investors are not so crazy." A person engaged in OTC distribution business in Beijing area told reporters during the exchange.

Vigilance against high risk

In the case of leveraged capital entering the market, market rationality becomes very important. And in July 7th, the A stock market's excitement state really showed signs of subsiding. On the disk, there are still 128 stocks on the trading floor, but there are 13 stocks that are still down. At the same time, although the index has risen all the way, the number of shares that have fallen is also increasing.

From the trend of major stock and stock index, the characteristics of market differentiation are becoming more and more obvious. As a result, many market voices are beginning to suggest the risk of withdrawal.

AI Jian securities analyst Zhu Zhiyong pointed out that the recent increase from the stock market, tax exemption, brokerage, cross-border electricity providers and other performance is better. Judging from the current economic situation, the market valuation is rising rapidly, and the growth of future performance is not enough to digest the valuation pressure, and the market has not started the basis of big market. Although liquidity can enhance market valuation in the short term, it will also increase financial risk. The current market style switching mode is difficult to sustain. What we need to do in this case is to pay attention to the withdrawal of control. The overall market shock pattern has not changed, and after the valuation is fixed, we can find opportunities again.

Yue Kai Securities chief economist Li Qilin also put forward: "in the short term, A shares continued to increase volume, indicating that A shares rise momentum is still strong, the market's mood is better. In the short term, under the combined action of sentiment, valuation repair and self strengthening of the rising situation, the market may continue to expand. But in the medium term, there are marginal changes in the several factors that cause the rise of A shares. Investors should pay close attention to the change of policy environment and the realization of fundamental expectations and rational participation.

Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source, suggests that investors should remain rational. He said: "when the market has gone up, everyone will be boiling hot. The willingness to enter the market is very strong. Many people have made a good layout in advance, and have obtained very good returns. Of course, many investors are not aware of this bull market. They have stepped into the bull market and become anxious. I suggest that we should keep a rational attitude, neither be enthusiastic about catching up, nor discouraged. In addition, the current risk factors that affect the market still exist, such as the spread of the overseas epidemic, and the risk of a sharp fall in the overseas economy in the second half of this year, which will have a more obvious impact on China's exports. We should pay close attention to these risk factors. The upward trend will not change, but there will still be some shocks.