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Zheng Mian Is In The "Bear Cow" Intersection Period, Pay Attention To Control The Risk

2020/7/14 14:49:00 0

Zheng Mian

In the past two weeks, zhengmian has been steadily rising, and the main contract of CF2009 has exceeded the previous high of 12155 yuan / ton. In the long short view of the market confrontation is still more intense, Zheng cotton with the rise of the K line to respond to everything. At present, Zheng Mian is in the "bear bull" intersection period, the future trend can be expected.


In the first half of this year, the total turnover of futures market increased by 27462.5 billion yuan (RMB 1.725 billion yuan) and the total turnover of futures market increased by more than RMB 1.652 billion yuan (RMB 1.652 billion yuan), respectively. In such a large volume of trading, it is not surprising that most commodities fluctuate upward. However, there will only be an increase in the global commodity market value from the absence of one commodity market this year.


Commodity fundamental contradiction is directly proportional to the market trend. The more prominent the fundamental contradiction is, the bigger the market is, and vice versa. From the current basic data, cotton inventory is still very large. According to the statistics of relevant institutions, by the end of June, China's commercial cotton inventory was 3.23 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 10%. According to the national cotton market monitoring system survey, as of the beginning of July, the National Cotton Industrial inventory was about 630000 tons, with a month on month decrease of 12.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%. Industrial and commercial inventory decline, combined with the reduction of warehouse receipts, cotton inventory pressure has been gradually released. Of course, in the short term, we do not want cotton to have a trend market. After all, the absolute quantity of inventory remains high, and the situation that supply exceeds demand has not changed. The driving force of price rise is still value restoration.


More than 10 million people have been diagnosed with new coronavirus in the world, and the world economic development has regressed. With the help of central banks of various countries, "water" has been released to rescue the market, resulting in the emergence of century investment opportunities for most commodities, including cotton. In a bear market, it is very difficult for retail investors to make profits, even if the bull market is no exception. What's more, cotton is still in the bear bull conversion period, and the depth and frequency of disk shocks will deepen or accelerate. No doubt bullish cotton late trend, but when to rise is critical. According to the author's judgment, at the end of the bear market, CF2009 contract is predicted to fall, but the bottom has been consolidated in the early stage, and the falling space is limited. Once the main contract returns to cf2101 contract, the cotton trend will continue to fluctuate upward.


On the one hand, we should see that the textile industry is now in a dilemma, and the demand recovery still needs time, which can not be solved overnight, so the cotton price has fallen to such a low level; on the other hand, we can see that all the domestic industries, not only the cotton textile industry, have survived the worst period, and the future is expected to be positive When it comes to reality, it is time to bargain and do long. The current predicament does not represent the future, "golden nine silver ten" textile traditional peak season will come. At this time, enterprises will receive orders in the spring of next year. At that time, the orders are not booming, so we can not easily draw a conclusion. It can be sure that at least it will be better than now.


In fact, there is no need for the outside world to worry too much about the trend of Sino US economic and trade relations. During the 18 months of Sino US trade friction, the cotton price fluctuated at 13000-14000 yuan / ton, only because of the impact of the new coronavirus. Moreover, the Sino US economic and trade friction is not as pessimistic as you imagine.


Recently, Wei Jianguo, former Vice Minister of the Ministry of Commerce of China, made a speech at the media forum of Sino US think tanks that Sino US economic and trade relations do not need to be decoupled as predicted by the outside world. On the contrary, through the efforts of both sides, China and the United States' import and export will stabilize and pick up in the third quarter of this year, and the bilateral trade will return to positive growth within the year. It is understood that although exports to the United States showed negative growth in May, the decline rate has been greatly narrowed. Up to now, the orders of home appliances and medical appliances are on the rise in June, especially in the long-term.


In short, the expectation of cotton price rising in the future is becoming strong. Of course, the more this time, the more cautious we should be. After all, risk control is always the first priority.


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