The Effect Of Keeping Supply And Price Stable In Many Places And Curbing The "Coal Super Crazy" Gradually Shows That The Price Of Steam Coal Tends To Be Stable

Continue to rise nearly half a year of steam coal, may usher in its inflection point in the near future.

Before the coal price of Shanxi and Inner Mongolia has been raised in the 21st century, the coal price has been raised.

In addition to the steady production and expansion of the existing coal mines, the state coal regulatory bureau and the national development and Reform Commission are still approving the construction of some coal mines and verifying the increase of production capacity. There is still room for the growth of domestic coal production in the future.

In terms of spot price, as of October 16, domestic steam coal price rise narrowed, and local prices fell. The main closing price of 5500 kcal coal in QinGang port is 610-615 yuan / ton, which is 5 yuan / ton higher than the previous period. Except for a small number of coal prices, the mainstream closing prices of most types of coal have not changed compared with last week.

In terms of futures price, on October 16, the main futures of steam coal had closed down for four consecutive trading days, and the price had dropped from 630 yuan / ton, the highest point, to 593 yuan / ton at the end of October 16, with a decrease of more than 5%.

"The prices of most coal mines have gradually stabilized, and the prices of a few mines have been adjusted back to a certain extent due to the high rise in the early stage." Zhuo Chuang information analyst Ren Huiyun told reporters, "the willingness of end users to purchase high price coal in the market is weakened, and the coal price continues to rise, and the power is insufficient."

In terms of spot price, as of October 16, domestic steam coal price rise narrowed, and local prices fell. Visual China

A number of measures to ensure supply

A number of market participants told reporters that the most critical factor affecting the domestic coal price trend is China's domestic coal supply.

China's annual coal consumption exceeds 4 billion tons. In the first eight months of this year, China produced 2.45 billion tons of raw coal. However, during the same period, a total of 70.43 million tons of coal (steam coal and coking coal) were imported from Australia, less than a fraction of the domestic production.

Therefore, except for the rise of steam coal futures on October 12, the other four trading days were all down. The reason is that under the policy expectation of maintaining stable supply and price, domestic production capacity is gradually releasing and the market expectation has gradually shifted.

Ordos, a big coal city, was the first to recover. On October 12, the city held a meeting to emphasize that departments at all levels should maximize the release of coal production capacity to ensure the completion of various objectives and tasks. According to Zhuo Chuang information statistics, as of October 10, 192 coal mines in the city resumed production, an increase of 9 compared with October 2, and the production of coal was 2.211 million tons, an increase of 960300 tons compared with October 2.

However, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Shandong and other regions, combined with environmental protection, safety inspection and strict control of coal management tickets and other multiple factors, in the week of 16, coal prices in these areas all ended up rising.

Taking Yulin as an example, after October, some coal mines in this area are in shutdown due to underground equipment maintenance, inverted working face and other factors. At present, there are about 140 local coal mines in Yulin, 5 less than that in mid September.

"But in fact, because the early coal price rose too high, leading to lower purchase willingness of downstream users, Yulin area also has some mining area coal price pressure downward." A market person told reporters, "Shenmu a mining area of the latest transaction price of 440 yuan / ton, down 32 yuan / ton month on month."

Although the current coal price has been stable and showing some downward momentum, it still needs to wait for a period of time from the introduction of policies to the release of production capacity.

Follow up coal market trend

Affected by the policy to encourage production and coal price trend, A-share coal mining industry showed an upward trend in the week of October 16.

On October 16, Shenwan coal mining plate closed at 2428.24 points, up 1.92% on the same day, up more than 3% month on month, which has been rising for two consecutive weeks. In terms of stocks, Xishan coal power (000983. SZ) rose by more than 17% in the past week and 30% in the past month, leading the coal sector.

In the future, the national safety supervision policy has been strengthened, and the fundamentals of the coal industry will remain tight in the short term. In addition, with the arrival of winter demand peak, coal prices will remain high in the short term. Although there are some signs of recovery, the specific recovery time still needs to be observed.

In addition, port inventory will also be a key indicator to be observed in the future.

On October 15, the total coal inventory of Qinhuangdao, Jingtang Port and Caofeidian port was 18.439 million tons, an increase of 43000 tons or 0.23% compared with the same period last week. Affected by the overhaul of Daqin line, the coal import volume of Bohai Rim port is at a low level. However, due to the high price of coal and the sluggish market trading, the port inventory has not decreased significantly.

"Downstream power plants after early active replenishment, inventory has been at a relatively high level, some power plants began to reduce procurement, QinGang steam coal growth narrowed." Ren Huiyun said.

According to the latest data of the National Bureau of statistics, in August 2020, the increase of national raw coal production is limited. Among them, 330 million tons of raw coal were produced in August, and 2.45 billion tons of raw coal were produced from January to August, a slight increase of 2.6% compared with the same period last year. Therefore, compared with the current demand level, the growth rate of coal is relatively limited.

In terms of follow-up supply, Ren Huiyun said that although the output of some advanced large mines in Ordos region has increased, the coal pipe tickets of some coal mines that have completed the annual approved production capacity in Yulin area have been fully recovered. In addition, there is no possibility of opening up the import coal at the end of the year, so the overall coal supply increase is limited.

In terms of demand, although the civil power load will decrease after the temperature drops, with the recovery of real estate and infrastructure projects and the rapid recovery of industrial power consumption, the coal consumption in the whole country, especially in the coastal areas, will also maintain a relatively high level of operation.

"At present, the coal storage days of key power plants in China are more than 28 days, which is at a relatively high level, and they are resistant to high price coal." "But given the limited production of some coal mines in the producing areas, even if coal prices fall next week, the range will be very limited," Ren said