Interpretation: In November 2020, CPI Decreased Year On Year And PPI Narrowed Year On Year

The National Bureau of statistics released today the national CPI (consumer price index) and PPI (Industrial producer price index) data for November 2020. In this regard, Dong Lijuan, Senior Statistician of the city Department of the National Bureau of statistics, made an interpretation.

1. CPI decreased both month on month and year on year

In November, with the continuous promotion of "six stabilities" and "six guarantees" in various regions and departments, the prices of pork and other important livelihood commodities continued to fall. On a month on month basis, CPI fell by 0.6%. Among them, the food price dropped by 2.4%, which affected the CPI decrease by about 0.53%. In food, with the continuous recovery of pig production, the price of pork continued to decline by 6.5%, and the decline rate was narrowed by 0.5%; fresh vegetables and eggs were in sufficient supply, and the prices decreased by 5.7% and 1.6% respectively. Non food prices increased from 0.1% in the previous month to a decrease of 0.1%, which affected the CPI decrease by about 0.09%. Among the non food products, the travel in the off-season decreased, and the prices of air tickets, tourism and hotel accommodation decreased by 15.6%, 4.4% and 3.4% respectively; the new winter wear products were on the market, and the clothing prices increased by 0.4%.

On a year-on-year basis, CPI fell by 0.5% due to the relatively high base in the same period last year. Among them, the food price increased from 2.2% in the previous month to 2.0% in the previous month, which affected the CPI decline by about 0.44%, which was the main reason for the CPI from up to down. In food, the price of pork decreased by 12.5%, 9.7 percentage points larger than that of the previous month, which affected the CPI decrease by about 0.60%; the prices of eggs, chicken and duck decreased by 19.1%, 17.8% and 10.8%, respectively, and the decline rates were expanded; the prices of fresh vegetables increased by 8.6%, and the increase decreased by 8.1%; the prices of fresh fruits increased by 3.6%, and the increase was increased by 3.2%. Non food prices fell from flat to 0.1% last month, which affected the CPI decline by about 0.06%. Among non food items, transportation and communication prices decreased by 3.9%, including gasoline and diesel prices falling by 17.9% and 19.6%, health care prices increased by 1.5%, and education, culture and entertainment prices increased by 1.0%.

Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI remained stable, rising 0.5% year-on-year, with the same increase for five consecutive months. It is estimated that in the 0.5% year-on-year decline in November, the tail effect of last year's price change was about 0, and the impact of new price rise was about - 0.5 percentage points.

Second, PPI rose from flat on a month on month basis, with a narrower year-on-year decline

In November, industrial production recovered steadily, market demand continued to pick up, and industrial product prices continued to rise. On a month on month basis, PPI rose 0.5% from flat last month. Among them, the price of means of production rose by 0.7%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points over the previous month; the price of means of living decreased from 0.1% in the previous month to an increase of 0.1%. Among the 40 major industrial sectors surveyed, 24 have seen price increases, 12 more than the previous month, and the rise rate has reached 60%. Affected by the rising international crude oil price and other factors, the prices of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry increased by 2.2%, the price of chemical fiber manufacturing industry increased by 1.9%, the price of oil, coal and other fuel processing industry increased by 1.7%, and the price of oil and natural gas exploitation industry increased by 0.9%. Heating demand increased seasonally, with gas production and supply, coal mining and washing prices rising by 2.8% and 2.2% respectively. The prices of metal related industries changed from falling to rising. The prices of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 1.5%, and the prices of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 1.1%. In addition, the prices of non-metallic mineral products, paper and paper products, and textiles rose by 0.7%, 0.5% and 0.5% respectively, and their growth rates all expanded.

On a year-on-year basis, PPI decreased by 1.5%, 0.6 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production decreased by 1.8%, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.9%; the price of means of living decreased by 0.8%, and the decline rate was expanded by 0.3%. Among the major industries, nonferrous metal smelting and calendering industry increased by 4.1% and 1.2% respectively; ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 2.0% and 1.7% respectively. The oil and natural gas exploitation industry decreased by 29.8% and 0.6% respectively; the oil, coal and other fuel processing industry decreased by 16.3% and 2.2%; the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry decreased by 3.0% and 3.0%; the coal mining and washing industry decreased by 2.9% and 2.6%.

It is estimated that in the 1.5% year-on-year decline in November, the tail effect of last year's price change was about 0, and the impact of new price rise was about - 1.5 percentage points.