The "Water Release" Of Shanghai'S Land Market Doubled Year On Year, And The First And Second Hand Reached A Four-Year High In 2020

"33 square meters, 1984's" old broken small ", the transaction price of 6.55 million", in recent days, Shanghai Pudong Meiyuan three streets related data, in many intermediary customer groups. The unit price of this house exceeds 190000 yuan / m2, which is comparable to the school district housing price of Xujiahui, a benchmark area of second-hand housing in Shanghai.

Compared with the cold property market at the end of 2018 and 2019, in Shanghai at the end of 2020, transactions of first-hand and second-hand houses broke out.

According to the data of Shanghai Zhongyuan, the transaction of Shanghai property market will end in December 2020. Shanghai's newly built commercial residential area of 1.227 million square meters, an increase of 59.1% on a month on month basis, and this data also reached a new high in the year.

In December 2020, Shanghai's second-hand housing transaction reached a new high of 39000 units, which is also the highest since 2016. There is a general rise in school district housing, and even the case of a sharp rise of 60% in half a year.

According to the comprehensive analysis of real estate enterprises, since Shanghai started all-round regulation with the "325" new deal in 2016, the market has adjusted for three years. With the easing of monetary liquidity, the recovery process will begin in the first half of 2020. In July, a number of luxury houses were in high demand, and a second-hand house was hung upside down in the center of the city. The old reform in Shanghai involved about 30000 families, which further promoted the market heat, especially the change of school district housing policy led to the explosion of second-hand housing.

Second hand house "short sale"

Shanghai Supply opened again, and the turnover in December 2020 has been rising all the way. Especially in the last week, the trading volume rose to 430000 square meters, setting a new record of weekly trading in three years. According to the data of Shanghai Zhongyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd., more than 100 sets of 6 projects have been signed on the top 10 weekly sales list, which is also a rare phenomenon in history. From the market transaction point of view, just need, just become the absolute main force, and a number of projects appear sunlight.

"Short selling" is a positioning of the current situation of Shanghai's second-hand housing market by the front-line intermediary personnel. Once there are houses available, they will sell them soon. More residential areas have prices but no market. The owners have not listed the houses, but have been making inquiries.

"If you look at the number of customers, the number of people looking at a house will basically jump the price. If you don't jump the price, the customer with more down payment can be preferred by the landlord." An intermediary said that the price jump was not exaggerated in 2016, which was basically 50000 or 100000. On the whole, the mentality of landlords has changed, and the mood of waiting for a price to sell is high.

Based on the fact that all the projects completed in December 2020 are focused on low and medium price products, the average price of new houses in the city has little change, which is 51941 yuan / m2, down 1.7% month on month. At the same time, the average price also set a new low in 2020.

The school district housing is the wind vane of the second-hand housing market in Shanghai. According to the statistics of the third-party institutions, from January to November 2020, the transaction volume of school district housing is 58912, accounting for 20% of the total, with a year-on-year increase of 15%. In the last three months of 2020, the turnover of second-hand housing will soar from 28000 to 32000 and 38000. Compared with 42000 sets at the end of 2015, the high level is not far away.

The 21st century economic report's comprehensive interview with a number of intermediary stores found that the housing prices of the new public schools in Shanghai have increased significantly, the highest has exceeded 56%. In a district of Zhangjiang plate, the house price will increase by nearly 60% in 2020. From the transaction price of more than 80000 in 2019, the transaction price has soared to more than 130000. At present, the listing price has exceeded 140000.

The 21st century economic reporter combs the public data and finds that there are only more than 1000 second-hand houses available in Shanghai, including the second-hand houses with a total price of 6-10 million yuan in ten years.

Yuan Xiaochao, director of the East China Research Department of Colliers International, is still optimistic about the Shanghai housing market in 2021. He believes that compared with the market in 2015 and 2016, the main reason for the rise in the property market in the second half of 2020 is the investment channels of the public. Most people have limited investment expertise. If the cycle is prolonged, the return on real estate purchase will not be lower than that of stocks and funds People still choose to buy a house.

Land market explosion

Looking back at 2015 and 2016, Shanghai's second-hand housing market was in the end, and so was 2020. First hand house low price push plate volume is larger, so the rise of first-hand house is not obvious than second-hand house. Driven by the wave of school district housing market, the public is worried about the continuous rise of house prices in 2021.

Lu Wenxi, an analyst at Zhongyuan Real estate market in Shanghai, believes that the expectation of home buyers has played a role in boosting the market at the end of the year. Many institutions report that house prices are rising. For example, the Chinese Academy of Sciences predicts that Shanghai's house prices will continue to rise by 5% this year.

The 21st century economic reporter found that the amount of homestead transfer in 2020 almost doubled compared with that in 2019. A total of 187 business land transactions were conducted in Shanghai, with a total land transfer fee of 258.35 billion yuan, up 59.4% compared with the whole year of 2019; among them, 92 commercial residential land transactions, with a total land transfer fee of 19.07 billion yuan, increased by 92.3% year-on-year.

From January to November 2020, the construction area of commercial residential land in Shanghai is 12.3824 million square meters, which has exceeded the land transaction scale of the whole year in 2019, with a year-on-year increase of 45.1%, and the floor price of hot areas has also increased significantly.

After the epidemic situation stabilized, Shanghai gradually relaxed the local auction policy (abolishing the self-sustaining requirements and relaxing the restrictions on the number of participating real estate enterprises, etc.), so that more foreign real estate enterprises had the opportunity to participate in the auction, and the floor prices of several sectors reached new highs. Even after the "three red lines" policy, the heat of land market did not decline significantly.

Sufficient supply laid the foundation for a record high trading at the end of the year. In December 2020, the supply supplement is obvious. When the monthly number of projects entering the market reaches 44 and the market area is 1351000 square meters, the last single month of more than 1.3 million square meters has to be traced back to October 2015. From the perspective of spatial distribution of projects entering the market, they are mainly concentrated in Qingpu, Baoshan, Fengxian and other traditional rigid demand and the first choice of rigid transformation.

In addition, there will be a small amount of "replenishment" in the end of 2020 for out of service luxury housing projects. But the recognition rate of hot market is still high, and even more than 1000% of the real estate.

Lu Wenxi pointed out that the end of the year will further boost market confidence. January and February are the off-season of the market, and subsequent trading will fall down, but it can prepare for the small spring in March and April.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, said that the recovery of Shanghai's second-hand housing market is the result of the intersection and resonance of multiple factors. In 2020, the pace of recovery of the new housing market is fast, with more than 40 real estate entering the market in individual months. New housing and second-hand housing market often have a linkage effect, "many buyers need to replace the original house for improvement, so the number of second-hand housing listing is sufficient and stable, which lays the foundation for market transactions."

From the demand side, the steady progress of the old reform has increased the demand for house purchase to some extent. In 2020, the old reform in Shanghai will involve more than 30000 households, and some residents who choose currency resettlement will choose to buy second-hand housing. "Market expectations have been restored, the original wait-and-see buyers, began to actively join the ranks of house buyers." Lu Wenxi believes that the warmth of the second-hand housing market is likely to continue to maintain.

Industry insiders generally believe that there are many differences between Shanghai's real estate market growth and that in 2016, which is more reflected in the release of pent up demand. After the release of demand, what is the trend of Shanghai's property market?

Ding Yao, an analyst at Tongce Research Institute, believes that in 2020, Shanghai's land transactions will double. According to the current calculation that the interval between the acquisition of land and the first opening of Shanghai's real estate enterprises is generally about one year, the large amount of homestead in 2020 will inevitably drive up the housing supply in 2021. According to incomplete statistics of Tongce Research Institute, there are about 108 forensic projects from January to April in 2021, with sufficient supply.

It is worth mentioning that the Shanghai government has also paid attention to the popularity of the second-hand housing market, and issued the notice on further standardizing the verification and information release of stock housing resources. From December 15, 2020, the second-hand housing transaction will add a new housing source verification link to avoid "false housing source" and other violations.