Spring Festival Real Estate Market Under The Influence Of "Local Spring Festival": The First And Second Tier Transactions Are Booming, And Home Ownership Is Cold

Under the requirements of epidemic prevention and control, many localities have issued a call to "celebrate the new year on the spot". During the Spring Festival, the number of people who stayed at work increased significantly, which also had a great impact on the property market during the Spring Festival.

Through the investigation of many institutions and real estate enterprises, the reporter of 21st century economic report found that during the Spring Festival, the real estate transaction heat of the first and second tier hot cities was significantly higher than that of the same period in previous years. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, pointed out that after the third day of the new year (February 14), more than 100 second-hand houses were sold every day in Beijing. New housing projects are also booming.

But at the same time, due to the decline in the scale of population flow, home ownership has been greatly affected. In some third and fourth tier cities, new housing projects even close during the Spring Festival.

Central cities are popular

According to the usual practice, the pattern of the property market during the Spring Festival is often shown as "the first and second line is cold and the third and fourth line is vigorous". Among them, some hot cities often have zero transactions during the Spring Festival, and many new housing projects choose to suspend business. Third and fourth tier cities benefit from home ownership, and the transaction is quite brisk.

However, in the case of "local Spring Festival", this situation will reverse in 2021.

Although it is impossible to count the transaction scale during the Spring Festival due to the suspension of online signature systems in various regions, most respondents believe that the transaction scale in the first and second tier cities has reached a new high in recent years.

Take Beijing as an example, Zhang Dawei said that during the Spring Festival, more than 60 projects in Beijing were not closed, and most of the brokerage agencies were working normally. Because of the large number of people staying in Beijing, many buyers take advantage of the Spring Festival holiday to see the house, "the number of customers received by some sales offices is close to the level of the usual weekend."

He pointed out that this is also the first time in history that buyers blowout during the Spring Festival holiday.

Xiaowang, a store agent in Huixin West Street area of Lianjia real estate, told the 21st century economic reporter that, considering that the policy of "Celebrating the new year on site" may lead to an increase in the number of house watchers, the store has arranged more colleagues to be on duty during the Spring Festival this year. From the actual situation, we began to receive telephone consultation on the second day of the new year (February 13), and someone came to see the house on the third day of the new year.

During the Spring Festival, the number of people who stayed at work increased significantly, which also had a great impact on the property market during the Spring Festival. -Photo by Gan Jun

According to the data of Shell Research Institute, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in key cities during the Spring Festival holidays in previous years was almost zero. During the Spring Festival (February 11-february 17), the turnover of key 18 cities was generally better than that of the same period of last year, and half of the 18 cities had turnover of 5 sets or more.

In addition to the booming transactions in the first tier cities, most of the second tier cities are the central cities of the metropolitan area, such as Chengdu, Xi'an, Suzhou, Hefei and Chongqing.

Xu Xiaole, chief analyst of Shell Research Institute, believes that there are two main reasons for the higher market heat during the Spring Festival this year than in previous years. First, the call for "Spring Festival on the spot" for epidemic prevention and the situation of epidemic situation are obviously better than last year. Some of the key cities have released the demand for house purchase, and the number of online house resources of chainjia app has increased by about 1.5 times over the same period of last year; second, the market is expected to be at a high level in recent three years, during the Spring Festival this year The second-hand housing market prosperity index of shell key cities is about 41, 35 and 29 in the past two years.

Third and fourth line property market from hot to cold

In contrast, the third and fourth tier real estate market, which relies on home ownership, is not active. According to the requirements of local epidemic prevention and control, the company closed its sales office during the Spring Festival and didn't open until February 18, the head of a real estate enterprise in a city in Southwest Shandong told the 21st century economic reporter. During this period, although online sales were opened, there were few consultants.

In the past few years, the project did not suspend offline sales during the Spring Festival. On the contrary, because there were too many consultants, the company would hire some temporary sales personnel to help.

In addition to the decrease in the number of people returning home, the income of many migrant workers has declined due to the epidemic situation, which inevitably affects their purchasing power and ability to pay.

According to the statistics of real estate transactions in 126 cities (non first tier cities), Shell Research Institute found that compared with the new first tier cities and second tier cities, real estate transactions in third and fourth tier cities were significantly colder during the Spring Festival.

According to the city level, during the Spring Festival, the average transaction heat of new first tier cities is about 38.2, that of second tier cities is about 7.2, that of third tier cities is about 3, and that of fourth tier cities is about 1.15.

Due to the high cost of living in big cities, increasing pressure, and the introduction of talent introduction policies in small and medium-sized cities, "home ownership" is an important support for the third and fourth tier property market in recent years. For the third and fourth tier cities with large population outflow, the transaction scale of home purchase during the Spring Festival and National Day holiday often accounts for 30% to 40% of the annual transactions.

Shell Research Institute pointed out that in addition to home ownership restrictions, there is a big background for the cooling of the third and fourth tier property market: the cooling down of shed reform.

From 2016 to 2018, the large-scale shantytowns transformation has formed a significant support for the national property market, especially greatly stimulating the housing demand of the third and fourth tier cities. Starting from 2019, the scale of shed reform is rapidly declining, and the third and fourth tier property market is gradually cooling down.

Most analysts believe that the third and fourth tier property market is likely to continue to be relatively depressed under the situation of cooling down the shed reform and re becoming a hot spot in the first and second tier cities.

Can "xiaoyangchun" keep the appointment?

The good performance of hot cities during the Spring Festival can quickly activate the "Yangchun" of the property market?

Xu Xiaole believes that the heating pace of hot cities should be significantly faster than in previous years, but whether the traditional "little spring" of the property market from March to may can come as scheduled still depends on the strength of the policy.

Since January this year, key cities have intensively introduced a round of regulatory policies, which not only put pressure on purchase restrictions, sales restrictions and taxes, but also filled the loopholes in "false divorce", credit loans, legal auction houses and gift houses.

On the eve of the Spring Festival, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development went to four first tier cities for supervision.

Xu Xiaole pointed out that the regulatory effect is gradually emerging, and the market is expected to cool down. For example, in the first half of February in Shanghai, the proportion of price increase in second-hand house owners decreased by 4% compared with that in January, and the proportion of second-hand house owners in Shenzhen has been declining since February. Throughout the year, it is expected that the heat of the second-hand housing market in hot cities will be lower than last year, and the price rise will be narrowed.

Most analysts believe that for home buyers, this stage is indeed a good time to enter the market, but due to the restrictions on both supply and demand of regulatory policies, it is expected that large-scale release of demand will not occur.

Therefore, in the coming March to may, the property market will appear a regular seasonal warming, and it is difficult to exceed the expected boom. Therefore, the expectation of "little spring" should not be too high. In terms of price, under the influence of factors such as inverted primary and secondary house prices and rising land prices, hot spot house prices still have the impetus to rise, but under the influence of various regulatory policies, the housing price rate will remain stable.