Is The Future Going Up Or Down?

Yesterday, Zheng Mian was still dominated by bears. Today, bulls are elated and elated. The speed of long short conversion is very fast, which shows that the wind direction of the market changes at any time, and the volatility has intensified. Moreover, this year's market is still in the upward trend. It should be unrealistic to hope that a unilateral trend like last year was formed. After all, Zheng cotton has been rising for a year.

According to the consensus of the investment community, last year was a big year for investment. This year's opportunities are not as good as last year's, but there should still be good opportunities compared with previous years. According to the report of the world bank, the major economies will have a good growth year on year this year. In the context of economic recovery, the demand side will play an important role in supporting the raw material side. It is appropriate to use the term "no recovery after a flood" in the current financial market. According to past experience, the inflation effect caused by water release will generally last about two years.

Zheng cotton began to show a strong rebound momentum, which has little to do with the fundamentals, because the supply is still stable, and the demand continues to rise. In particular, the US cotton export continues to improve, but the market price falls again and again, which is affected by the external market. Not only cotton, but other commodities have started a round of big correction, which is similar to stocks. If the valuation is too high and the rise is too fast, of course, there will be adjustment. No matter how good the fundamentals are, it is just a matter of how many drops. Cotton this round of adjustment fell about 2000 points, the violent shock just shows the cruelty of the market. The market has begun to panic, which is a good opportunity for investors to enter. Zheng Mian started to rebound with American cotton, which just confirmed this point of view.

In addition, a round of high-level talks between China and the United States is about to start, which is a great boost to the market. From the beginning of Sino US trade friction, the cotton market began a round of shock downward process, which lasted for a long time. Most of the decline in the market showed how important the impact of the cold and warm economic and trade relations between the two countries on the cotton market. Now the news of the high-level talks between the two countries is coming out again, and it is reasonable for the market to take advantage of the situation to hype.

Finally, now that we have entered the stage of spring ploughing and sowing, the planting area and growth of cotton will gradually usher in the opportunity of weather speculation. In the future, the long-term factors that affect the rise and fall of cotton prices will coexist. It is likely that in the upward economic cycle, the commodity market will be prosperous. The difficulty of market operation is that the result is satisfactory, and the process will be extremely difficult. (the content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice to anyone)