National Bureau Of Statistics: CPI In May Was Generally Stable And PPI Continued To Decline

The National Bureau of Statistics today released the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Factory Price Index of Industrial Producers) data for May 2023. Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted this.

1、 CPI is generally stable

In May, consumer demand continued to recover, the market was generally stable, CPI fell month on month, and year-on-year growth slightly expanded.

On a month on month basis, CPI fell by 0.2%, 0.1 percentage point higher than that of last month. Among them, affected by seasonal factors, food prices fell by 0.7%, 0.3 percentage points less than that of the previous month, affecting CPI by about 0.12 percentage points.

In food, due to sufficient market supply, the prices of shrimps and crabs, fresh vegetables, pork, eggs and fresh fruits dropped by 3.5%, 3.4%, 2.0%, 1.6% and 0.3% respectively, affecting the CPI decline by about 0.13 percentage points in total, accounting for more than 60% of the total CPI decline.

Non food prices fell by 0.1% from a 0.1% rise last month, affecting CPI by about 0.05 percentage points. In the non food category, travel demand fell after the holiday, and the price of air tickets and vehicle rental fell 7.2%; Concerts and other performance activities increased, and the price of films and performance tickets increased by 0.8%; The summer clothes were renewed in the new season, and the clothing price rose by 0.4%.

From a year-on-year perspective, CPI rose by 0.2%, 0.1 percentage point higher than that of last month. Among them, food prices rose by 1.0%, 0.6 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, affecting CPI growth by about 0.19 percentage points.

In food, the prices of poultry meat, edible oil and fresh fruit rose by 5.6%, 3.6% and 3.4% respectively, all of which fell back; Pork prices fell 3.2% from a 4.0% rise last month; The price of fresh vegetables dropped by 1.7%, 11.8 percentage points lower than that of last month; Prices of food and aquatic products were basically stable.

Non food prices were flat, up 0.1% last month. Among non food items, the service price rose by 0.9%, 0.1 percentage point lower than that of the previous month. Among them, the price of air tickets, travel and transportation rental fees rose by 14.7%, 8.0% and 5.1% respectively, all of which fell back; The price of industrial consumer goods fell by 1.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, of which the prices of gasoline, fuel cars and new energy cars fell by 11.3%, 5.1% and 3.3% respectively.

It is estimated that among the 0.2% year-on-year CPI increase in May, the tail lifting effect of the price change in the previous year was about 0.5 percentage points, and 0.3 percentage points in the previous month; The impact of the new price increase was about - 0.3 percentage points, and last month was - 0.2 percentage points. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 0.6% year on year, 0.1 percentage points lower than that of last month.

2、 PPI continues to decline

In May, the overall price of international bulk commodities declined, the overall demand for industrial products at home and abroad was weak, and the year-on-year comparison base was high. PPI continued to decline month on month and year on year.

On a month on month basis, PPI fell by 0.9%, 0.4 percentage points higher than that of last month. Among them, the price of means of production decreased by 1.2%, with a decrease of 0.6 percentage points; The price of means of living fell by 0.2%, or 0.1 percentage point. The price of international crude oil and major nonferrous metals declined, driving down the price of related domestic industries. Among them, the price of oil and natural gas exploitation industry fell by 2.1%, and the price of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry fell by 2.0%; The price of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry dropped by 1.1%.

The supply of coal, steel, cement and other industries is generally sufficient, but the demand is weak, and the prices are falling. Among them, the price of coal mining and washing industry is down 5.2%, the price of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry is down 4.2%, and the price of non-metallic mineral products industry is down 0.9%.

The price of equipment manufacturing industry declined slightly, including the price of electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry declined by 0.5%, the price of computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry declined by 0.3%, and the price of automobile manufacturing industry declined by 0.2%. In addition, the price of cultural, educational, industrial, artistic, sports and entertainment goods manufacturing industry rose by 0.5%, and the price of power and heat production and supply industry rose by 0.1%.

On a year-on-year basis, PPI fell by 4.6%, 1.0 percentage point higher than that of the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production dropped by 5.9%, with a 1.2 percentage point increase; The price of the means of subsistence fell 0.1% from a 0.4% rise last month.

Among the 40 industrial sectors surveyed, 26 fell in price, an increase of 3 over the previous month. Among the major industries, the price of oil and natural gas exploitation industry decreased by 19.1%, 2.8 percentage points more; The price of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry dropped by 16.8%, 3.2 percentage points higher; The price of petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industry dropped by 15.1%, 3.7 percentage points higher; The price of coal mining and washing industry decreased by 13.1%, with a decrease of 3.8 percentage points; The price of nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry dropped by 8.4%, narrowing by 0.2 percentage points. The price of automobile manufacturing industry fell by 1.1%. In addition, the prices of cultural, educational, industrial, artistic, sports and entertainment goods manufacturing industry rose 4.5%, the prices of power and heat production and supply industry rose 1.6%, and the prices of textile, clothing and apparel industry rose 1.0%.

It is estimated that among the 4.6% year-on-year decline in PPI in May, the tail raising impact of price changes in the previous year was about - 2.8 percentage points, and that in the previous month was - 2.6 percentage points; The impact of the new price increase was about - 1.8 percentage points, and - 1.0 percentage points last month.