Market Analysis: Expected Analysis Of Textile And Clothing Consumption Market And Foreign Trade Orders Falling Sharply

Influenced by political factors such as the COVID-19 epidemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the global economy fell into a downturn, and China's foreign trade orders for textiles and clothing declined significantly. At this time, the domestic demand market, another engine driving the economy, is particularly important for the entire textile industry. Although the three-year epidemic has come to an end, the derivative impact of the epidemic still exists. It is unknown whether everyone's consumption ability and confidence will recover. In order to understand the actual demand and consumption trend of China's textile and clothing terminal market, and the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on consumers' consumption ability and consumption habits, the Shanghai Office of the China Textile Industry Federation, together with the Shanghai Textile Business Association and Donghua University, conducted a sample survey of textile and clothing terminal consumption. It is expected to judge the operation of the industry and predict the market trend in the second half of the year through the research on terminal demand.

This survey is divided into two parts. The first part is to understand the customer flow and sales of stores through field visits to various shopping malls and wholesale markets. In order to accurately understand the impact of COVID-19 epidemic on terminal consumption and the recovery of current consumption, we compared the current business situation of stores with that before the epidemic and that of last year during our visit and investigation. The second part is to understand the current economic situation, consumption capacity, consumption habits and consumption confidence of consumers by issuing consumer questionnaires. In the first part of the visit, we divided the types of shops we visited into department stores, wholesale clothing markets and customized clothing markets to understand the situation of different types of shops. This time, 292 stores in 26 malls in 9 business districts in Shanghai were investigated; 168 shops in 8 wholesale malls on Qipu Road; 40 custom clothing shops in the South Bund Light Textile Market; A questionnaire survey was conducted among 1023 consumers. The scope of this survey basically covers the major shopping malls in the most important business circles in Shanghai, so it is representative.

From this investigation, after three years of the epidemic, the consumption of textile and clothing has been greatly affected. Although this year's situation has improved compared with last year, it still has not recovered to the level before the epidemic. In addition, consumer confidence and consumption habits, as well as the business model and pattern of shopping malls have undergone considerable changes. The specific investigation is as follows:

Part I: Field survey of stores

1、 Survey of major department stores

In this survey, we visited 26 shopping malls in 9 major business districts in Shanghai, namely, "Xujiahui", "Zhongshan Park", "Wujiaochang", "Continental Jiazui", "Nanjing East Road", "Huaihai Road", "Jing'an Temple", "Daning" and "Tibet Road". The focus of the survey is mainly on passenger flow, sales and other aspects. According to the survey feedback, there are mainly the following aspects:

1. In terms of the passenger flow, most of the merchants interviewed reported that the passenger flow this year has increased compared with last year, accounting for 58.23%. This is mainly because last year was still in the epidemic period, and everyone was cautious about traveling. At the same time, we also asked businesses to compare with the situation before the 2019 epidemic, and the results were not optimistic. 69.86% of the merchants said that the current passenger flow was less than that before the epidemic, and only 19.18% of the merchants said that the current passenger flow was more than that before the epidemic. This shows that the epidemic has lagged behind for a while, and the passenger flow in shopping malls is recovering, but it has not yet recovered to the state before the epidemic.

2. From the perspective of sales, the business status fed back by the interviewed merchants is basically consistent with the passenger flow. 55.67% of the merchants reported that the sales of this year increased compared with that of last year. However, compared with that before the outbreak in 2019, this proportion was only 19.18%, and 69.86% of businesses said that it was down. This indicates that the business status of the merchants has not yet been fully recovered.

3. Judging from the operation of each shopping mall visited, the operation pattern of department stores is changing. From the original pure shopping department store or shopping center model to the life consumption center integrating catering, entertainment, education, shopping and other functions. And the function of shopping is weakening, while the function of catering and entertainment is becoming dominant. During our visit, many shopping malls and shopping centers have become the most popular places for catering. In addition, many shopping malls have settled down for preschool education, fitness, beauty salons, entertainment games, etc. Even a famous shopping center in Shanghai has basically changed to catering service. This shows that consumer consumption habits and concepts have changed significantly, and department stores have had to change accordingly, and are changing to a comprehensive life consumption center.

4. In our visit to merchants, we classified them according to the price of the products they sold, and classified those with average sales price higher than 1000 yuan as middle and high end, and those with average sales price lower than 1000 yuan as middle and low end. According to the classified feedback, the COVID-19 epidemic seems to have a greater impact on middle and high-end businesses. Because no matter in terms of customer flow or sales volume, the feedback of a larger proportion of middle and high-end businesses is declining.

5. Among the merchants interviewed, 71% said that their clothing brands have online stores at the same time, and these physical stores often become the fitting rooms for customers. This also reflects from another aspect that the trend of online sales of clothing will become more and more obvious.

6. For the future development trend of department stores and shopping centers, the feedback from various businesses is mixed. Some businesses are worried about the future of their stores, but others are optimistic. In general, shopping malls need to establish their own brand and quality image. In the future, high-end shopping malls will still have their fixed consumer groups and development space, while shopping malls that take the middle and low-end route may develop towards a comprehensive life consumption center.

2、 Survey of clothing wholesale market

In this survey of the clothing wholesale market, we focused on 8 clothing wholesale malls in Qipu Road, Shanghai, and visited 168 merchants in total.

1. From the perspective of passenger flow, the clothing wholesale market has recovered a bit of popularity. This year's passenger flow has increased compared with last year, but it has not recovered to the state before the epidemic. Compared with last year's passenger flow, 55.09% of the merchants visited reported an increase. Compared with the passenger flow before the epidemic, only 14.88% of the merchants interviewed reported an increase, while 82.14% reported a decrease.

2. From the perspective of sales, it is consistent with the passenger flow. 57.49% of merchants reported that sales increased year on year. Compared with that before the epidemic, only 14.88% of merchants reported an increase, while 81.55% of merchants reported a decrease.

3. Although the overall situation of the clothing wholesale market is better than last year and weaker than before the epidemic, there are still significant differences in passenger flow and sales between different wholesale malls on Qipu Road. In some shopping malls with good market entrances, the popularity has completely recovered, and there is a lot of people in the shopping malls. Businesses have reported that the situation is better than before the epidemic. However, some shopping malls with poor market entrance are still neglected, which is not as good as last year.

4. In the survey on the business pressure of merchants, 50.6% of merchants said that the competition from online shopping had caused pressure on them. This shows that online shopping has had a huge impact on the traditional clothing sales model. The second most important business pressure for merchants is the pressure of horizontal competition and inventory, and 35.71% of merchants give such feedback.

5. In the survey of popular brands, most merchants reported that simple casual clothes are more marketable. Consumers also prefer pure cotton clothing.

3、 Investigation on garment customization in the South Bund textile fabric market

The South Bund textile fabric market is a well-known clothing customization market in Shanghai. This time, we visited 40 clothing customization shops in the market.

1. From the perspective of the market's passenger flow, this year's situation has obviously recovered from that of last year. Of the 40 merchants interviewed, 36 reported that this year's passenger flow was higher than that of last year, accounting for 90% of the merchants interviewed. However, there is still a big gap between the current situation and that before the epidemic. As for the comparison with that before the epidemic, only 5 merchants said that the passenger flow had increased, accounting for 12.5%, while 34 customers said that it had decreased, accounting for 85%.

2. From the perspective of market sales, although the situation has recovered well this year, it is only because Shanghai was deeply involved in the epidemic last year, and there is still a big gap compared with the pre epidemic situation. See the table for specific data.

3. From the perspective of customer sources in the customized market, the proportion of repeat customers of merchants is very high, most of which are more than 80%. This shows that clothing customization has a relatively stable consumer group, and customer loyalty is also high.

4. During this visit, we learned that most of the clothing customization stores have opened online order receiving business, and 34 of the 40 merchants interviewed said they are or have received orders through the Internet, accounting for 85% of the customers interviewed. This shows that the mode of online sales has also been widely recognized in the clothing customization market.

Part II: Consumer Questionnaire

In order to understand the actual situation of consumption from the perspective of consumers, we conducted consumer questionnaires through interviews with passers-by and online distribution, and collected 1023 questionnaires in total. The occupations of the respondents cover various types of occupations, ranging from under 18 to over 60 years old, and most of them are concentrated in the 25-50 years old age group with active consumption. This questionnaire is mainly divided into three parts, one is the basic information of the respondents, the second is the survey of the consumption of the respondents, and the third is the survey of the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic.

1、 Basic information of respondents

From the basic information of the respondents, men accounted for 39.59% and women 60.41% of the sample; In terms of education background, 86.80% of them have college degree or above; In terms of age, 25-50 years old accounted for 72.63%. Therefore, most of the samples surveyed are major consumer groups, which can objectively reflect the actual situation of current end consumers.

Most of the respondents' family income is between 8000-25000 yuan, accounting for 54.64%. According to the survey on the income of consumers in the past year, 20.43% of them said that their income had declined this year, 13.64 percentage points less than the survey data last year, but still increased compared with 2019 before the epidemic. In addition, 32.26% of people said that their income had increased this year, which was 11 percentage points higher than that of last year, but also lower than that of 2019 before the epidemic. This shows that with the end of the epidemic, the income of residents this year has improved compared with last year, but it is far from returning to the state before the epidemic.

2、 Consumption survey

The survey of consumption is mainly conducted from three aspects. The first is consumption channels, the second is consumption capacity, and the third is consumption habits. From the statistical data, the following information can be obtained:

1. From the perspective of consumption channels

50.73% of the respondents said that they mainly bought clothes through online shopping, while in the 2013 survey 10 years ago, this proportion was only 16.11%. Conversely, 22.39% of respondents bought clothes from department stores this year, compared with 52.22% in 2013. It can be seen that in the past ten years, the consumption channels of consumers have reversed between online shopping and physical stores in department stores. Because of the convenience of online shopping and the convenience of returning and exchanging goods, more and more people prefer online shopping, which is one of the reasons why the customer flow and sales volume of stores have declined year after year when we are doing market surveys. However, although the two consumption channels of online shopping and department stores have reversed, the proportion of interviewed consumers who buy clothing through wholesale clothing markets and clothing stores has remained relatively stable over the past decade. The proportion of wholesale markets has always been in the single digits, while the proportion of clothing stores has always been around 20%. Our survey data shows that, relatively speaking, consumers of low-income groups tend to buy clothes in the wholesale market, while consumers of high-income groups tend to buy clothes in clothing stores. In other words, the channels for low-income groups and high-income groups to buy clothes are relatively stable.

For online shopping, there are more and more online shopping channels at present, not only online stores, but also live video with goods and other forms. Through the survey, we can see that the main online shopping channel for consumers is Taobao Tmall, which accounts for 56.46% of the respondents, and occupies an absolute dominant position, followed by Vipshop, JD, Pinduoduo, and Tiaoyin, which account for 7.73%, 7.63%, 7.35%, and 6.88% respectively.

More and more people are beginning to accept this form of shopping. According to our survey this year, most of the respondents understand and pay attention to this form of shopping, and 15.96% of the respondents said that they are very familiar with the form of live video shopping, and have already consumed through online live video shopping.

2. From the perspective of consumption habits

Most people buy clothes once a month or two. Among the respondents, 37.34% of them consume once a month, and 30.11% consume once every two months. As for the primary factor affecting consumers' purchase of clothing, most people chose the style, accounting for 44.77%, followed by the price, accounting for 35.29%.

This year, we also conducted a survey on consumers' propensity to buy cotton clothes. According to the survey, most consumers prefer to choose cotton clothes when choosing clothes. Of the respondents, 71.01% gave a positive answer.

3. From the perspective of consumption capacity

34.01% of the consumers interviewed said that the overall consumption of clothing has decreased, of which 12.9% has significantly decreased. Only 16.82% of respondents said that consumption was increasing. This is better than last year, but not as good as the data before the epidemic. For the monthly expenditure on clothing, most respondents chose between 300-1000 yuan, accounting for 44.28%, followed by 100-300 yuan, accounting for 24.73%. According to the survey data in recent years, last year was a low point, and the current consumption capacity is gradually recovering.

For the subsequent consumption budget on clothing, 26.01% of the respondents said that it would decrease, 62.46% said that there was no change, and 11.53% said that it would increase. Compared with the survey data of last year, this data has also made a significant improvement, indicating that consumer confidence is gradually recovering.

　　 3、 Impact of COVID-19 epidemic

The three-year epidemic has had a profound impact on our lives. It not only affects our income and consumption ability, but also affects our consumption habits. In the survey on the impact of the epidemic on personal income, 22.39% said that it had no impact, 46.53% said that it had a small impact, 25.81% said that it had a large impact, and 5.28% said that it had a large impact. In the survey of whether there is unemployment due to the epidemic in their families, only 15.49% said yes, while 84.51% said no. This year's survey data has been greatly improved compared with that of last year, and is almost the best compared with the survey data of the previous three years. This shows that with the end of the COVID-19 epidemic, the negative impact of the epidemic is being corrected and normal life is returning.

The epidemic is also affecting our consumption mode. In the survey on whether the epidemic makes people prefer online shopping, 68.43% of people said that it has an impact, and 11.34% said that it has a great impact. The epidemic has taught people the concept of non-contact and non gathering life, and online shopping just fits this concept. It can be said that the epidemic has also played a role in promoting online shopping.

The survey on consumption expectations in the post epidemic period can be said to be mixed. Most of the respondents said that they would not carry out retaliatory consumption after the epidemic, accounting for 73.51%, and only 16.13% said that they would increase consumption. According to the survey of people's views on the economic situation after the epidemic, 40.86% of them are optimistic, and 4.5% of them are optimistic. Those who expressed pessimism accounted for 29.63%, and those who expressed pessimism accounted for 6.55%. Although this figure is better than last year, it is still not as good as the two years when the epidemic first occurred. This shows that although everyone's confidence is recovering, after the baptism of the epidemic, everyone is still cautious.

　　 Survey summary

Although the COVID-19 epidemic has come to an end, its impact on us will not stop. In this process, our lifestyle is also changing imperceptibly. Through the analysis of the survey data, we can find the following changes:

1. With the full liberalization of epidemic control, all aspects are in the process of recovery. Both the customer flow and sales of shopping malls, as well as the income and consumption capacity of consumers, are growing. That is to say, the demand has gone out of the trough of last year and is developing in a good direction. However, it is only in the recovery stage and has not yet fully reached the pre epidemic state. Moreover, it is difficult to predict whether this recovery will last for a long time and return to the previous height.

2. The business form is changing. The original business model of department stores or shopping centers is being overturned. Instead, the consumption center model of urban life is driven by catering and entertainment. With the continuous diversification of people's living needs, the shopping component in the business structure of shopping malls is declining, while the service components such as catering, fitness, entertainment are increasing. Now, whether a mall can attract people has a lot to do with the popularity of catering and other service industries.

3. With the rapid development of mobile Internet, technology is changing the way people live. The consumption mode and shopping channel of consumers have changed greatly. In addition, the epidemic has guided people's non-contact consumption, making online shopping the most important shopping channel for most consumers. Moreover, new online shopping forms are emerging one after another, and online shopping platforms are springing up like mushrooms. But at present, Taobao Tmall is still the main online shopping channel for people.

4. Modern people's pursuit of clothing is becoming more and more personalized. With the development of science and technology, new textile materials are constantly emerging, and various functional fabrics bring people a better clothing experience. However, according to the survey, cotton clothing is still the most popular. This answer can be obtained from our survey of popular models in shopping malls and consumer questionnaires.

5. Although the current consumption demand is warmer than that of last year, this recovery is only a repair after the trough of last year. The uncertainty of future economic development still restricts people's desire for consumption. Many people are reducing their budget for clothing consumption in the future. So the subsequent domestic demand market is not optimistic.

(Source: Shanghai Office of China Textile Federation)