Market Dynamics: Shortage Of Lint Replenishment In The Face Of Smes' Production Suspension And Restriction

The domestic downstream continues the slack season. Recently, a small number of orders were issued in autumn and winter, and the demand showed signs of slow start, but the demand has not yet started in large quantities, and the inventory of finished products of textile enterprises continues to accumulate. The current situation of production and marketing is difficult to support enterprises to resume operation. The industry's start-up rate continues to run at a low level. The phenomenon of production stoppage and production restriction is common for small and medium-sized enterprises. There is insufficient power to replenish the lint stock. Most enterprises still maintain the strategy of purchasing as needed.

In recent years, in addition to the possibility of severe convective weather in the west and north of northern Xinjiang, many places in southern Xinjiang and eastern Xinjiang still have high temperatures, and field management in July and August has become the top priority. At present, cotton in the southern and northern Xinjiang production areas is growing fast, with the growth period about one week earlier than last year, and the growth trend is better than the same period in 2022 and 2023. Cotton farmers and ginning mills generally believe that if the Xinjiang cotton region is still dominated by sunny weather from late July to mid September, seed cotton picking in 2024/25 is expected to be 7-10 days ahead of the previous year, and ginning mills' weighing time will be more than 1 week ahead of the previous year.

In the overseas market, the rise of the US dollar weakened the competitiveness of American cotton in the global market, and weekly export sales were weak. The weakness of most American agricultural products also brought spillover pressure. ICE cotton futures closed lower after trading up and down in the flat market. The index contract for December fell 0.19%, and the settlement price was 71.93 cents/lb.

The downstream demand margin has improved recently. However, it is still weak as a whole. From a fundamental point of view, Zheng Mian does not have the momentum for a sustained sharp rebound. It is expected that the short-term operation will be dominated by shocks, and the change will take time.