NDRC: CPI Rose After October This Year.
Yesterday, the national development and Reform Commission released the analysis of the price situation in the first half of the year and the trend forecast in the second half of the year. It is expected that the CPI will fall after October this year.
In the first half of this year, the state increased the regulation of the real estate market and abolished the export tax rebates for some products.
Conserve energy,reduce emissions
The intensity of work has restrained some industries from overheating.
In the first half of the year, the overall price level was basically stable, and the prices of agricultural products rose steadily. The prices of production materials and commodities in the international market dropped at a high level, which further consolidated the expected target of controlling 3% of the total price level of the whole year.
In the first 6 months, China's gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 11.1% compared with the same period last year, and the growth rate in the two quarter dropped to 10.3%.
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Development and Reform Commission
Judging from the current situation, the macro economy in the second half of this year is expected to remain stable, and the total supply and demand of society will gradually become more balanced, so that the total consumption price level of the whole year will increase by 3% or so.
The national development and Reform Commission said that at present, the state reserves more grain, and the reserves of soybeans and edible oils increase further. The supply of grain and oil markets is fully protected, and the price of live pigs is unlikely to increase substantially.
In the process of coping with the financial crisis, the contribution rate of foreign trade to China's economic growth has dropped significantly.
Recently, the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism has been reformed, the RMB exchange rate elasticity has been enhanced, and the export tax rebates of 406 tax number commodities have been abolished. The pattern of import and export has been more balanced and imported inflation pressure has been reduced.
The price of agricultural products in the international market is much lower than that in China, and it also helps to curb the sharp rise in domestic prices.
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Development and Reform Commission
Taking all factors into consideration, the consumer price index will run at around 3% in the second half of the year, and it will come down after October.
Food prices will show seasonal and seasonal fluctuations.
That is, food prices in July and August continue to decline, the Mid Autumn Festival, the seasonal rise before and after the national day, and then a small fall, the end of the year to rise again.
The price of living class may increase in a certain extent, mainly because of the contradiction between local rationalizing natural gas and other prices, and the adjustment of minimum wage and social security standards will increase the price of family services.
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